Ultimate Strength of Schedule, DB - Footballguys

An in-depth look at the strength of schedule for defensive backs

The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Fantasy Points Driven
    Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.
  • Removed Bias Of Schedule
    Consider the following scenario: Defense A faced the 16 best offenses while Defense B faced the 16 worst offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.
  • Positional Breakdown 
    If you are looking for a running back, it's much more relevant to see SOS data for running backs (rather than simply rushing data).

EXPLANATION OF USOS TABLES

Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

The "Team" Column

This is simply the NFL team.

The Values

Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).

The "2018" Column

This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team's opponents for this season.

The "EZ" Column

This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

The "TF" Column

This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

The "1st3" Column

This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value can be used to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

The "1st5" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).

The "Byes" Column

This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value can be used to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.

The "14to16" Column

This is similar to "1st3" except that it specifically covers Week 14 through Week 16.

The "15to17" Column

This is similar to "14to16" except that it specifically covers Week 15 through Week 17.

The "W01" through "W17" Columns

These values are the expected strength of each team's opponent for that particular week (W05 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

The Coloring of the Values

The green values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Green was chosen because you can go ahead and take players on that team. The yellow values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Yellow was chosen because you should use caution before selecting players from that team.

(Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)

  • Green is a hot team with a good schedule
  • Yellow is a cold team with a bad schedule

ULTIMATE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE - DEFENSIVE BACKS

Team
2018
EZ
TF
1st3
1st5
Byes
14to16
15to17
Arizona 43.3 3 2 41.5 42.1 43.5 43.3 41.8
Atlanta 43.4 5 5 42.5 42.0 43.0 44.8 44.9
Baltimore 43.0 3 4 42.1 42.9 42.3 44.3 46.9
Buffalo 43.5 6 5 43.1 43.6 43.2 44.0 46.4
Carolina 43.2 4 2 41.1 42.3 44.2 43.3 42.5
Chicago 44.4 7 2 45.0 45.5 44.3 44.6 44.4
Cincinnati 43.1 4 5 39.6 41.6 43.1 46.3 44.4
Cleveland 42.4 3 7 41.8 42.0 43.3 42.2 41.7
Dallas 43.1 3 2 42.5 43.4 43.0 43.4 43.9
Denver 43.1 3 5 41.9 40.7 42.2 45.1 46.3
Detroit 43.0 5 5 43.8 43.8 42.6 43.1 43.0
Green Bay 43.0 3 4 41.4 42.0 44.4 40.7 41.8
Houston 42.7 4 4 44.7 42.9 42.8 41.1 41.8
Indianapolis 43.0 3 3 42.2 43.4 42.6 43.7 43.0
Jacksonville 42.4 3 5 44.7 42.4 41.0 44.0 44.6
Kansas City 44.3 5 2 45.4 44.6 44.3 42.9 44.9
LA Chargers 42.7 3 5 40.1 42.1 44.1 39.0 40.9
LA Rams 44.0 4 2 46.9 44.7 43.0 43.7 45.4
Miami 42.4 3 7 42.5 42.7 42.9 43.1 41.2
Minnesota 43.8 6 4 44.0 43.7 43.5 44.7 44.3
New England 42.3 3 7 43.6 43.4 41.9 43.5 41.1
New Orleans 42.8 3 4 44.8 44.5 42.1 43.4 41.3
NY Giants 42.4 1 3 42.1 41.9 43.0 41.2 40.7
NY Jets 43.7 6 4 46.0 45.0 42.2 43.7 45.7
Oakland 43.3 6 5 45.2 45.8 44.0 42.9 41.2
Philadelphia 42.6 3 1 42.7 42.4 42.2 42.4 42.9
Pittsburgh 42.9 4 6 43.3 42.2 42.0 44.7 43.0
San Francisco 44.1 7 2 41.6 44.1 45.5 42.3 41.1
Seattle 43.8 5 3 42.3 43.2 45.3 41.4 43.2
Tampa Bay 42.3 1 5 43.2 42.4 42.1 41.0 40.8
Tennessee 42.7 4 6 44.2 43.4 42.3 43.2 42.5
Washington 43.4 5 2 44.2 43.8 43.4 43.1 42.5
NFL Average 43.1 4 4 43.1 43.2 43.1 43.1 43.1

Week-By-Week Look

Team W01 W02 W03 W04 W05 W06 W07 W08 W09 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17
Ari 42.5 42.2 39.9 41.1 44.9 41.8 45.9 44.9 - 37.7 45.3 48.4 46.7 45.5 42.1 42.2 41.1
Atl 44.1 40.6 42.7 40.0 42.8 47.0 45.9 - 42.5 45.2 41.1 42.7 39.2 46.7 47.1 40.6 47.0
Bal 40.4 40.0 45.9 42.8 45.2 42.1 42.7 40.6 42.8 - 40.0 45.3 42.1 37.7 47.0 48.4 45.2
Buf 39.2 48.4 41.8 46.7 42.1 44.0 39.0 46.3 39.9 40.1 - 41.3 47.4 40.1 45.5 46.3 47.4
Car 41.1 42.1 40.0 - 45.9 42.5 44.1 39.2 47.0 42.8 45.5 41.1 47.0 45.2 42.7 42.1 42.7
Chi 46.7 41.1 47.1 47.0 - 47.4 46.3 40.1 40.4 45.5 41.8 45.5 45.9 42.2 46.7 44.9 41.8
Cin 39.0 39.2 40.6 42.1 47.4 42.8 37.7 47.0 - 42.7 39.2 45.2 45.9 48.4 45.3 45.2 42.8
Cle 42.8 42.7 40.1 45.3 39.2 48.4 47.0 42.8 37.7 42.1 - 40.0 44.0 40.6 45.9 40.0 39.2
Dal 40.6 45.9 41.1 45.5 44.0 41.3 42.5 - 42.1 44.1 42.1 42.5 42.7 44.1 39.0 47.0 45.9
Den 41.1 45.3 39.2 37.7 40.1 42.2 47.1 37.7 44.0 - 48.4 42.8 40.0 44.9 45.2 45.3 48.4
Det 40.1 44.9 46.3 41.1 46.7 - 47.4 41.1 41.8 39.9 40.6 39.9 42.2 47.1 40.4 41.8 46.7
GB 39.9 41.8 42.5 40.4 45.5 44.9 - 42.2 46.3 47.4 41.1 41.8 47.1 42.1 39.9 40.1 45.5
Hou 46.3 42.1 45.9 39.0 41.1 40.4 41.3 47.4 45.9 - 42.5 42.1 45.2 39.0 40.1 44.1 41.3
Ind 40.0 42.5 44.1 44.0 46.3 40.1 40.4 45.3 - 41.3 42.1 47.4 41.3 44.0 41.1 45.9 42.1
Jac 45.9 46.3 42.1 40.1 37.7 41.1 44.0 44.1 - 39.0 42.8 40.4 39.0 42.1 42.5 47.4 44.0
KC 48.4 42.8 44.9 45.9 41.3 46.3 40.0 45.9 45.2 47.1 42.2 - 45.3 39.2 48.4 41.1 45.3
LAC 37.7 40.4 42.2 44.9 45.3 45.2 42.1 - 41.1 45.3 45.9 47.1 42.8 40.0 37.7 39.2 45.9
LAR 45.3 47.1 48.4 41.8 41.1 45.9 44.9 46.7 42.7 41.1 37.7 - 45.5 39.9 44.1 47.1 44.9
Mia 42.1 40.1 45.3 46.3 40.0 39.9 45.5 44.0 40.1 46.7 - 39.0 40.4 46.3 41.8 41.3 40.4
Min 44.9 46.7 40.4 42.2 44.1 47.1 40.1 42.7 45.5 - 39.9 46.7 46.3 41.1 47.4 45.5 39.9
NE 44.0 41.3 45.5 47.4 39.0 37.7 39.9 40.4 46.7 42.1 - 40.1 41.8 47.4 42.8 40.4 40.1
NO 47.0 45.2 42.1 45.9 42.5 - 39.2 41.8 42.2 40.0 44.1 42.1 41.1 47.0 40.6 42.8 40.6
NYG 41.3 41.1 44.0 42.7 40.6 44.1 42.1 42.5 - 44.9 47.0 44.1 39.9 42.5 42.1 39.0 41.1
NYJ 45.5 47.4 45.2 41.3 45.9 39.0 41.8 39.9 47.4 40.4 - 46.3 42.1 40.4 44.0 46.7 46.3
Oak 42.2 45.9 47.4 45.2 48.4 41.1 - 39.0 44.9 48.4 47.1 39.2 37.7 42.8 40.0 45.9 37.7
Phi 42.1 47.0 39.0 42.1 41.8 45.9 40.6 41.3 - 41.1 42.7 45.9 42.5 41.1 42.2 44.0 42.5
Pit 45.2 37.7 47.0 39.2 42.1 40.0 - 45.2 39.2 40.6 41.3 45.9 48.4 45.3 46.3 42.7 40.0
SF 41.8 45.5 37.7 48.4 47.1 46.7 42.2 47.1 45.3 45.9 - 47.0 41.1 45.9 41.1 39.9 42.2
Sea 45.9 39.9 41.1 47.1 42.2 45.3 - 45.5 48.4 42.2 46.7 40.6 44.9 41.8 44.9 37.7 47.1
TB 42.7 44.1 42.8 39.9 - 42.1 45.2 40.0 40.6 42.5 45.9 44.9 40.6 42.7 39.2 41.1 42.1
Ten 47.4 44.0 41.3 44.1 40.4 39.2 48.4 - 41.1 46.3 39.0 44.0 40.1 41.3 45.9 42.5 39.0
Was 47.1 39.0 46.7 - 42.7 40.6 41.1 45.9 42.1 47.0 44.0 41.1 44.1 45.9 41.3 42.1 44.1
Avg 43.1 43.1 43.1 43.2 43.1 43.1 43.0 43.1 43.2 43.2 42.9 43.3 43.1 43.1 43.1 43.1 43.1