When a prospect enters the NFL and immediately starts threatening (sometimes shattering) records, it’s certainly fair to wonder how he projects going forward. Pinning down 2018 expectations for Deshaun Watson, across such a wide range of potential outcomes, is no easy task. His rookie production was strong enough that we can’t just start our evaluation from scratch; we know Watson is NFL-capable. But how much of that short-lived rookie greatness can we project to carry over?
Based upon the sheer explosiveness of his rookie numbers, it’s hard to know just how much mean regression to expect. But fantasy owners can’t responsibly look for the same level of productivity. Watson was dynamic as a rookie, but to the point that his numbers are hard to trust going forward. Given his high draft cost – and the bloated middle of the quarterback board – Watson’s top-tier average draft position can’t be easily justified.
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