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Projection Reflections: Preseason Week 2 Adjustments - Footballguys

A look at the key projections changes after the second week of the preseason

Projection reflections

At Footballguys, we provide real-time projections all season long. Our first set goes live the day after the NFL draft, and sometimes the changes can get lost in the shuffle. Statistics are the engine behind many of our key features, but numbers are only valuable if there's context. This feature will take a look at the key projections adjustments each week of the preseason, with an eye toward providing context and significance to the numbers.

Included in this week's column:

  1. Andrew Luck gets another bump, this time into the elite tier
  2. Philip Rivers drops a few spots but remains a target
  3. Two popular QB2 moving in opposite directions
  4. Two other starting quarterbacks you care about more than I do
  5. Two changes on the quarterback depth chart
  6. Early round running backs in motion
  7. Peyton Barber is distancing himself from Ronald Jones II
  8. Chris Carson is winning the job, too, but it's transient
  9. Three unappealing backfields catalyzing
  10. The Vikings receivers are closer together than I thought
  11. Draft-worthy receivers in motion
  12. Two starting tight ends moving in the wrong direction
  13. Trey Burton ping-ponging back up the rankings
  14. Florida tight ends flip-flopping spots

Luck on the Rise

Rank
Player
Team
Gms
Cmps
Atts
Cmp%
Yds/Att
PaYds
PaTDs
INTs
Rush
RuYds
Yds/Ru
RuTDs
FumLost
FanPts
5-NEW
IND
15
345
550
62.7%
7.4
4,080
25
13
50
240
4.8
2
3
324
11-OLD
IND
15
320
510
62.7%
7.4
3,780
25
13
50
240
4.8
2
2
310

Last week, Andrew Luck got a bump along with Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson because their injury risked subsided. Luck gets another upgrade for two reasons:

  1. Luck is healthy -- Disregard the box score from the second preseason game and instead focus on Luck being an iron man throughout training camp, and his ability to take hits this week without a hitch
  2. Frank Reich likes to throw -- A more careful analysis of the Colts coaching tendencies showed I was too conservative projecting the team's passing attempts. Reich's offenses have averaged 600+ pass attempts. If Luck throws 600+ time (my new projection is for 550), he'll push for the No. 1 spot with Aaron Rodgers

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