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Projecting the Pros

A guide to playing roster percentages like the pros.

NOTE: The pro projections below are first posted on Thursday, then updated on Saturday afternoon. On Thursday, commentary will be limited to early impressions. A more-detailed discussion of specific players will be added on Saturday afternoon.

Welcome back for Week 3 of Footballguys' new feature that uses a statistical model to project the roster percentages of "professional" tournament players on Draftkings. If you're curious about what goes into the model, click here.

As promised, this week's article will start off with a review of last week, identifying the model's hits and misses, as well as theorizing why the happened. For Week 2, actual roster percentages are based on lineups the pros entered in the low buy-in featured tournaments this author also entered (as well as the Millionaire Maker).

week 2 hits

Based on an 18.3% probability of achieving 4x value and the Browns defense being projected for less than one percent ownership, the model projected Alvin Kamara to be rostered at 18.5% by the pros, which was a lower rate than projected for the overall public. And indeed, Kamara was actually rostered in 18.6% of pro lineups, for an absolute error of 0.1%. This bit of depressed rostering paid off, as Kamara scored 17.9 points, which translates to only 1.9x value at a salary of $9,500.

Another running back that whose projected pro roster percentage was nearly a bullseye was Todd Gurley. The model projected him at 17.6%, which was far lower than what was expected of the overall public. Gurley ended up being rostered in 17.2% of pro lineups in this sample. Unfortunately, the pros didn't benefit as much on this call as much as they did on Kamara, as Gurley's touchdown-heavy performance produced 32.3 points, which translates to 3.5x value at a salary of $9,200.

The model also had two highly accurate projections at wide receiver. First, Quincy Enunwa appeared in 11.1% of pro lineups, whereas he was projected at 11.4%. Second, and far more surprisingly given how much he lapped the field in projected overall roster percentage, Antonio Brown appeared in 38.8% of pro lineups after being projected at 39.7%.

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