Keenan Allen: The Stars Are Aligned for a Career-Year - Footballguys

Photo: Orlando Jorge Ramirez, USA Today Sports

A Target Machine

Keenan Allen returned to fantasy prominence last year, as Phillip Rivers’ most trusted receiver and one of the NFL’s most targeted players (159 targets). As long as Allen is healthy, his role is secure, particularly with the Chargers tight end group decimated by Hunter Henry’s season-ending ACL tear. For the Chargers to function in the way we’re accustomed, Allen has to play a massive role. The only bad news is Allen’s ADP is now in-line with his value, for the first time in four seasons. However, in the first two or three rounds, the goal isn’t to find hidden value but to capture fair value. Allen is among the safest players at the position and could vie for No. 1 overall honors if he gets positive touchdown regression.

• Finished as the No. 3 receiver in both points per reception (PPR) and non-PPR last year
• Philip Rivers and Ken Whisenhunt remain in place; continuity it key
• Hunter Henry tore his ACL in the preseason, leaving a massive target vacuum
• Set a Chargers record (with Rivers at quarterback) with 159 targets
• Remained healthy last year for the first time
• Allen’s substantial role in the red zone belies his low career touchdown rate

Redemption

Finally. After a dazzling rookie season in 2013 (71 receptions for 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns), Keenan Allen struggled through three injury-plagued seasons. Over that span, he ranked no higher than 47th among fantasy receivers, averaged a pedestrian 10.5 yards per catch, and scored eight times. A torn ACL in 2016 relegated Allen to fantasy pariah status last offseason. As luck would have it, those who overlooked three years of injuries were handsomely rewarded; Allen played all 16 games, ranked 5th with 159 targets, and finished as the #3 fantasy receiver with 102 receptions for 1,393 yards and six touchdowns.

A Checkered Injury History, but Time Heals All Wounds

A year ago, Keenan Allen’s injury history was an albatross. For many, it may still be. There’s no doubt every fantasy league has a handful of owners that will avoid Allen regardless of circumstance. A quick review of his injury history justifies some concern:

• 2012 – Grade 2 PCL strain cost Allen his final three college games at California
• 2014 – Broken collarbone cost Allen the final two games of his second NFL season
• 2015 – Lacerated kidney cost Allen the last eight games of his third NFL season
• 2016 – Torn ACL in the first game cost Allen the rest of the season

In four seasons, Allen missed 26 games. He was slapped with the “injury prone” label even though two of his season-ending NFL injuries were flukey things. Fantasy owners were skeptical, and let Allen fall in drafts last year even though team doctors gave him a clean bill of health.

Fast forward a year and fantasy owners have all but forgotten Allen’s past travails. It’s incredible what a top-5 fantasy season will do to shake off skeptics. The question is whether Allen’s injury history should be ignored entirely (as it appears to be currently) or not? We’re of the belief he’s not significantly riskier than other top-tier players.

Allen Is Good In A Lot of Ways

Allen may not be the biggest receiver, or the strongest, or the fastest. He may not be the best open-field runner, or the most aggressive jump ball receiver. What makes Allen elite is that he's very good at every facet of the game. It's the combination of skills in one package that makes Allen a No. 1 fantasy producer.

Career Catch Rate, Active Players (Minimum: 200 Receptions)

Allen's career 67% catch rate is the 9th best among active players with at least 200 career receptions. Most of the receivers ahead of Allen are possession receivers, whereas Allen is capable of making plays vertically, as well.

Career Yards per Target, Active Players (Minimum: 200 Targets)

Allen ranks 24th in yards per target, which isn't particularly special on the surface. But it's good enough when you're targeted 10+ times per game, as Allen was last year, and is likely to be again.

Career Yards per Game, Active Players (Minimum: 2,000 Yards)

Allen is 8th among active receivers in yards per game -- most notably ahead of DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald.

About That Touchdown Rate...

Allen has 22 career touchdowns on 481 targets. Touchdowns have not been his strong suit. In fact, he doesn't rank in the Top 50 active receivers in scoring rate.

Career Touchdown Rate, Active Players (Minimum: 200 Targets)

Allen's 4.6% touchdown rate ranks 52nd among active receivers, and he sits behind such luminaries as Brian Quick, Rod Streater, and Kenny Britt. If there's a silver lining, it's that the most targeted receivers all tend to trend lower on this list. Julio Jones is also at 4.6%, Antonio Brown stands at 5.3%, and Michael Thomas is at 5.2%. Positive touchdown regression is a logical expectation for Allen (and the other super-elite pass catchers who are lower on this list then you might have expected). Philip Rivers is a prolific touchdown producer, and Allen is among the league leaders in red zone targets. In his two healthy seasons, Allen was targeted 20+ times in the red zone.

• 2013 -- Allen was targeted 21 times in the red zone (11th among receivers), just five targets behind the most targeted receiver, Calvin Johnson
• 2017 -- Allen led the league with 24 red zone targets, tying Jarvis Landry

Scoring touchdowns is as much about opportunity as ability, and Allen has been given an inordinate amount of opportunity. There's nothing on film, or in Allen's skill profile, that precludes him from reversing the bad touchdown luck he's endured in his career to date. But even if he doesn't improve his scoring rate, remember Allen was the No. 3 fantasy receiver last year in both PPR and non-PPR formats. Positive touchdown regression could mean he overtakes Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, and DeAndre Hopkins for top honors.

Are 200 Targets Possible?

Allen's 159 targets last year were the most for a Chargers player in the Philip Rivers era. In fact, since Philip Rivers took over as the starter in 2006 (12 seasons), only five players have been targeted 100+ times in a season.

Chargers Players with 100+ Targets in a Season (2006-2017)

• Antonio Gates (4x)
• Keenan Allen (3x)
• Vincent Jackson (3x)
• Danny Woodhead (1x)
• Tyrell Williams (1x)

The pessimists would note Allen's 159 targets appears an extreme outlier in Philip Rivers career. The optimists would acknowledge Allen has been targeted 100+ times in each of his three healthy seasons.

The Void at Tight End Cannot Be Overstated

Allen's target share last year came with both an emergent Hunter Henry and the venerable Antonio Gates on the roster. The Chargers tight ends combined for 122 targets, 82 receptions, 942 yards, and 7 touchdowns last season. Gates retired (and will waltz into the Hall of Fame in a few years), and Hunter Henry tore his ACL in the preseason. Their absence leaves the Chargers with an uncharacteristic void at a position that's always been Philip Rivers' security blanket.

% of Offense, Chargers Tight Ends (2006-2017)

In the Rivers Era, tight ends have accounted for 25% of targets, receptions, yards and more than 35% of touchdown passes. Yet, entering the preseason the team has one of the worst tight end corps in the AFC:

• Virgil Green -- 103 targets, 71 receptions, 807 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 100 career games
• Sean Culkin -- 0 stats
• Braedon Bowman -- 0 stats
• Ben Johnson -- A rookie
• Cole Hunt -- A rookie

Unless the team coaxes Antonio Gates out of retirement (a distinct possibility), it's almost impossible to imagine Rivers targeting Allen fewer than ten times per game. And if Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams don't take steps forward, 200 targets for Allen is a reachable goal.

Projections

Final Thoughts

Keenan Allen lost three years to injuries, but just when the fantasy community had lost faith, he rebounded last year and delivered a top-3 finish in both PPR and non-PPR formats. Even if nothing had changed in the offseason, Allen would be one of the safer bets to earn top-10 honors. But things didn't stay the same in the offseason. Antonio Gates retired, and Hunter Henry tore his ACL. That leaves a massive hole at Philip Rivers' favorite position, and all but assures Allen will not only approach last year's 159 targets but could lead the league and approach 180 to 200 targets. Allen's injury history can't be forgotten, but he's coming off a healthy season and poses no more risk of major injury than other highly ranked starters. The one fly in Allen's ointment is a preternaturally low touchdown rate, but the case for positive regression is strong considering how often Allen gets targeted in the red zone. Allen is worthy of his current ADP and should be on your short list at the end of the first round or early part of the second round.

Other Thoughts from around the web

Rotoworld's Evan Silva foresees positive touchdown regression:

"Allen scored only six TDs despite leading all receivers in red-zone targets (24), hinting at forthcoming positive-touchdown regression; Allen hit pay dirt on just 5.9% of his catches after scoring on 7.2% of receptions in his first four years."

FFToday's Steve Schwarz doesn't trust Allen, even though he ranks him as a top-10 receiver:

"I love Allen, but I don’t trust him. He’s injury-prone. He’s never started 16 games in a season. He was a volume receiver last season, setting career highs in targets, receptions, and yards, but caught just 64.2% of his attempts. Will he get the same number of looks this season? Probably. But Mike Williams, their 2017 first-round pick did little last season due to injury and should see a lot more than the 23 targets he saw in 2017. They also have capable receivers in Tyrell Williams and speedster Travis Benjamin. The loss of TE Hunter Henry to injury and Antonio Gates to retirement should help, but I’m still concerned."

Shark Pool (Footballguys Message Board) Thoughts

TheDirtyWord is surprised Allen isn't higher on draft boards:

"In 2015, Allen in 8 games prior to suffering a season-ending injury put up 67/725/4. Then he missed all but one half of action in 2016 (but caught 6 passes for 60 yards). In 2017, while LAC meandered offensively through the first stretch of the season, Allen was mediocre, but in the last 8 games of the season - put up 62/845/5. His situation is static - he has a great QB who loves him. He's in an offense where Henry/Gates who combined for TD's are no longer on the team...I'm surprised his ADP is behind Michael Thomas, ODB, and Julio."

Just Win Baby likes Allen but thinks further growth will be difficult:

"His 16 game pace from 2015-2017 is 112/1396/6 on 163 targets. That is 18 ppg in PPR, which would have ranked #4 last year, #7 in 2016, and #10 in 2015.

So IMO he is clearly a top 10 WR. But is he definitely a top 5 WR in 2018? Not necessarily."