Outliers: Week 11 - Footballguys

A comparison of the early weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could either have unexpected good or poor fantasy weeks.  Week 12 will be the last article of the season as the Top 200 rankings converge on the weekly rankings.  

This article will take a weekly look at players who are either undervalued or overvalued in a given week. The outlier values are calculated by a comparison between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the initial weekly Footballguys rankings. Both sources are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's look at this week's outlier players.

Quarterback

Jared Goff

  • Top 200 ranking: 14
  • Weekly ranking: 3
  • Difference: +11

Goff gets a great matchup against the Chiefs this week. The game should be very high scoring. Even without Cooper Kupp in the lineup, we like Goff’s chances of having one of the top quarterback games in Week 11. Coach McVay will have his offense poised for a monster outing.

Ryan Fitzpatrick

  • Top 200 ranking: 16
  • Weekly ranking: 6
  • Difference: +10

We never know when the magic will run out. The game against the Giants will offer Fitzpatrick an opportunity to get back on track after a pitiful outing last week. New York is a solid pass defense so the sledding will not be easy. But, he makes a solid spot starter for teams needing to replace Tom Brady or another passer on bye.

Andrew Luck

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 19
  • Difference: -10

Luck has enjoyed a solid season even without much at the receiver position. We are not expecting big things this weekend as the Colts face division-rival Titans. Tennessee has been stellar on defense of late, holding Tom Brady under wraps last Sunday afternoon. The Titans need this win to elevate their playoff chances.

Russell Wilson

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -17

Wilson has not enjoyed the success of years gone by. This week, the Seahawks host the Packers in what appears to be a lower-scoring game than most expect. The young Green Bay secondary is now maturing into a solid squad and could pose problems for Seattle.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette

  • Top 200 ranking: 18
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: +5

Fournette looked like his old self last week against the Colts. We were also happy to see his involvement in the passing game with five receptions. The game against the Steelers will be a difficult one for the downward-spiraling Jaguars. To have a chance, the offense must go through the young tailback. Add in his potential receptions and we like Fournette to have another solid fantasy outing.

David Johnson

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 6
  • Difference: +4

Johnson had a nice outing last week and gets an awesome matchup against the Raiders next on tap. Opposing running backs have been able to run on Oakland due to game script and the Raiders lacking talent in the front seven on defense. We also like the fact that new offensive coordinator, Byron Leftwich, is incorporating Johnson into the passing game.

Dalvin Cook

  • Top 200 ranking: 16
  • Weekly ranking: 24
  • Difference: -8

The Vikings have been able to establish the run with Latavius Murray. Cook’s touch count is uncertain as he is still not back to full strength. The matchup against the Bears defense should be a difficult one for Cook to break off big plays. He is a low-end RB2 for fantasy in a great divisional matchup.

James Conner

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 8
  • Difference: -3

Conner has been a pleasant surprise for the Pittsburgh offense. The game against Jacksonville will be a tough one for the powerful runner. The Jaguars are yielding less than 20 PPR points per game, on average, to opposing tailback corps. He has touchdown potential so there is upside. We just do not like his chances of having a week-winning performance.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Boyd

  • Top 200 ranking: 28
  • Weekly ranking: 20
  • Difference: +8

The injury to A.J. Green is a mixed blessing for Boyd. While it does open up targets for the young receiver, he gets more attention from opposing defenses, too. The game against a stiff Baltimore defense will see which of these dynamics wins this week. We err on the side of volume as the Bengals desperately need a victory.

Robert Woods

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: +4

With the Kupp injury, Woods will see an increased role down the stretch. The potential for a high-scoring affair, as the Rams square off against the Chiefs, should provide enough scoring opportunity for Woods to reward his fantasy supporters.

Stefon Diggs

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -7

Diggs has played well this season, even if it has come in the shadow of Adam Thielen. The game against the Bears should be tough for Diggs to get going. Chicago has the secondary – and pass rush – to impact the Vikings passing game. While we still like Diggs as a fantasy starter, we have tempered expectations for Week 11.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -5

We expect the Jaguars to give the young star plenty of attention. The physical Jacksonville cornerbacks will be in Smith-Schuster’s face all game. No, we would not advise sitting Smith-Schuster. He is a threat for a large outing any game. However, his ceiling is much lower than most weeks.

Tight End

Jared Cook

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 3
  • Difference: +7

Cook benefits from the Raiders lack of weapons in the passing game. The contest against an equally-bad Cardinals team should open up production for the journeyman tight end. Arizona is a top-10 fantasy defense against tight ends so this ranking is not without risk.

Jordan Reed

  • Top 200 ranking: 15
  • Weekly ranking: 8
  • Difference: -7

With the injuries to the Washington receivers, Reed has an excellent opportunity to emerge late in the season. The game this week against the Texans should allow Reed to produce for fantasy players. He is surprisingly healthy and could hit a monster score from the waiver wire.

O.J. Howard

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 12
  • Difference: -7

Howard is a great tight end prospect who languishes in a volatile situation. Tampa Bay has not played well on offense the past couple of games. Even with the lowly Giants up next, it is difficult to recommend Howard.

Thank you for reading. Next week, Week 12, will be our last of the 2018 series. Feel free to (email me) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.