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Outliers: Week 10 - Footballguys

A comparison of the early weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could either have unexpected good or poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are either undervalued or overvalued in a given week. The outlier value players offer is calculated by a comparison between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the initial weekly Footballguys rankings. Both sources are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's look at this week's outlier players.

Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 2
  • Difference: +15

Tampa Bay hosts Washington, the same defense that allowed Matt Ryan and company to put up 38 points. In that contest, Matt Ryan threw for 350 yards, 4 touchdowns, and an interception. No, we are not suggesting that Fitzpatrick is as good as Ryan, but there is immense upside in the Buccaneers passer this week.

Philip Rivers

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 6
  • Difference: +7

Rivers and his potent offense get the feeble Raiders this week. The game is in Oakland, but it should not matter. The Chargers played well in Seattle last Sunday and this contest should be much easier. We like the prospects of most Los Angeles fantasy options. Oakland allowed Nick Mullins to throw for 262 yards and 3 scores last Thursday night. Rivers and his troops are more prolific than Mullins so there is hope for a great fantasy outburst.

Carson Wentz

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -7

Wentz is slowly rounding into form. The game against the Cowboys will be a hard-fought contest. Even though the Titans put up 28 points on the scoreboard Monday night, Marcus Mariota only threw for 240 passing yards and a pair of scores. The Dallas defense is underrated, and we expect this game to be relatively low scoring.

Russell Wilson

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 20
  • Difference: -10

Wilson and the Seahawks travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams. This is a defense that left New Orleans licking their wounds and should be motivated to show that last week was an aberration. The lack of viable options in the passing game also should inhibit fantasy success for the quarterback. Overall, there are likely better alternatives on the waiver wire this week.

Running Back

Nick Chubb

  • Top 200 ranking: 19
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: +6

Chubb should have running lanes against the Falcons this week. Atlanta allows a whopping 31 PPR fantasy points to opposing backfields. Cleveland is just scratching the surface in the ground attack and we expect Chubb to have a strong outing as the Browns run early and often to keep Matt Ryan on the sidelines. After the trade of Carlos Hyde, the team will want to see the rookie perform.

James Conner

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 5
  • Difference: +8

Le'Veon Bell’s return is fast approaching, and this could be one of Conner’s last games as the unquestioned lead back. Conner and the Steelers host the Panthers in what appears to be a great game for fans – and fantasy owners – alike. Conner is a fantasy RB1 for us once again this week.

Dion Lewis

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 19
  • Difference: -8

Lewis will get a chance to perform against his former team. We expect Bill Belichick to have a plan for slowing Lewis down, especially as a receiver. We are intrigued to see how the gameplan unfolds, but Lewis is a middling fantasy RB2 this week.

Kerryon Johnson

  • Top 200 ranking: 15
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: -7

Johnson has been impressive as a rookie. The game at the Bears this week will be a difficult matchup for the Lions running game as Chicago has a solid defense and will likely be playing with a lead. This is a defense that is the third-best in the league at preventing opposing running backs from scoring PPR fantasy points. Theo Riddick may have more PPR fantasy points due to his role in the passing game.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Boyd

  • Top 200 ranking: 21
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: +10

Boyd steps into a large void vacated by the injury to A.J. Green against the Saints this week. New Orleans is yielding 53 PPR fantasy points each week to wideouts, almost 7 points-per-game more than the next worst team, Tampa Bay. The Saints have a stout run defense but a sieve of a pass defense. Good situation plus great matchup could lead to a fantasy WR1 finish this week.

Cooper Kupp

  • Top 200 ranking: 33
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: +23

Kupp is back from injury and looks healthy. We expect the Rams receivers, especially Kupp, to thrive against Seattle this week. The Seahawks were torn apart by the Chargers last Sunday. We like Los Angeles’ passing game to have a big outing as the team has three receivers ranked in the Top 18 wide receivers.

T.Y. Hilton

  • Top 200 ranking: 16
  • Weekly ranking: 25
  • Difference: -9

Hilton has a difficult matchup against the Jaguars this week. Jacksonville is coming off a bye and is in a virtual tie (with Dallas) for the best defense in defending wide receivers in PPR leagues. Hilton is just getting back to full health and will be tested as the top pass-catcher for Indianapolis.

Amari Cooper

  • Top 200 ranking: 23
  • Weekly ranking: 36
  • Difference: -13

Cooper looked sharp on Monday night, but Dallas struggled to get the ball to its best receiver. With the game against the Eagles next up, we are not encouraged for the breakout game most fantasy players hope. Philadelphia will look to lock up the Cowboys best receiver and make the supporting cast beat them.

Tight End

Jared Cook

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 4
  • Difference: +5

Cook is the lone playmaker remaining in the Raiders offense. As we expect Oakland to be playing from behind for most of the sixty minutes, Cook should have ample opportunity to put up big numbers. The Chargers will score – OFTEN – and Derek Carr will be forced to throw to keep him.

Rob Gronkowski

  • Top 200 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 8
  • Difference: -4

Gronkowski has not put up viable fantasy points for several weeks. It appears that the Patriots are holding him out of full usage until completely healthy. Against the Titans, the lumbering tight end will probably only be used in high-leverage situations like goal-line and first-down plays. Tennessee has a good defense and this game could be closer than most expect.

Jack Doyle

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -5

Doyle and Eric Ebron are splitting tight end targets and face a tough pass defense in Jacksonville. The combination of factors makes us leery to rely too much on either Colts tight end as the game could be low scoring as each team battles for its respective playoff hopes.

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