Outliers Week 6 - Footballguys

A comparison of the early weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could either have unexpected good or poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are either undervalued or overvalued in a given week. The outlier value players offer is calculated by a comparison between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the initial weekly Footballguys rankings. Both sources are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's look at this week's outlier players.


Jameis Winston

  • Top 200 ranking: 16
  • Weekly ranking: 7
  • Difference: +9

Winston returns to the lineup against the Falcons in Atlanta. This game should be high-scoring and Tampa Bay has struggled to run the ball. Atlanta has the fifth-worst defense in giving up fantasy points to the quarterback position. We like both quarterbacks this week for fantasy players.

Matt Ryan

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 1
  • Difference: +8

Against the Buccaneers this week, Ryan is our top-ranked passer. He is coming off a disappointing outing in Pittsburgh and returns to the friendly confines of the dome. Tampa Bay yields more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than any other defense. Expect a three-touchdown game from the veteran passer.

Andrew Luck

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -7

Luck has continued to put up fantasy points without much help at the receiver position. We expect the lack of play-makers to catch up to him this week. T.Y. Hilton may play but he is likely not back to full speed. The matchup at the Jets will not be easy as Todd Bowles has his troops playing hard as evidenced by the trouncing of the Broncos last week.

Jared Goff

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -3

No, we are not suggesting you bench Goff this week. But, the matchup against the reeling Broncos should give pause that passing touchdowns will be difficult to come by. Adding to the negative elements are the concussions to Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp last Sunday. If neither can play, Goff will have a lower fantasy ceiling than normal.

Running Back

James White

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 6
  • Difference: +6

White has been lethal in the passing game this year. The game against the Chiefs looks to be high scoring and White will be needed to make plays out of the backfield. Kansas City yields 36 PPR fantasy points to opposing backfields and White is the primary beneficiary. He is a legitimate RB1 this week, even without many projected carries.

James Conner

  • Top 200 ranking: 29
  • Weekly ranking: 5
  • Difference: +24

Conner is coming off the monster game against the Falcons and gets the Bengals in what could be his last game as the Steelers starting tailback. Le'Veon Bell is expected to report next week. Cincinnati is mid-pack in defending running backs, but Conner will have scoring opportunities. He is a solid fantasy starter once again this week.

Kareem Hunt

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -5

Hunt has been touchdown-dependent for fantasy outcomes this season as his targets have dropped significantly. The game against the Patriots this week should be a quarterback faceoff with Mahomes versus Brady. Without many expected pass targets, we see Hunt as a fringe RB1 this week.

Ezekiel Elliott

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 7
  • Difference: -4

Elliott struggled to get going against the Texans on Sunday night. The game against the Jaguars will be even more difficult for the star running back. Jacksonville is staggering and will ratchet up the defense. This should be a lower scoring game. Dallas has been in four low-scoring contests this year and this looks to be number five.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 1
  • Difference: +6

In keeping with the anticipated pass-heavy game for Tampa Bay this week, we have Evans ranked as the top fantasy receiver in early projections. He should be able to make plays down the field against the beat-up Atlanta secondary. We like Evans’ chances to top 100 yards and a touchdown in the game.

Tyler Boyd

  • Top 200 ranking: 29
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: +12

Boyd had a clunker last week against Miami but draws a great matchup against Pittsburgh this week. The Steelers yield a whopping 46 PPR fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Boyd is emerging and is looking to get back on track. He has big upside in a game that could become pass-happy in a hurry.

DeAndre Hopkins

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 6
  • Difference: -3

Hopkins is arguably the best receiver in the league. The matchup against the Bills will not be easy this week. Buffalo is very difficult against opposing wideouts. Additionally, quarterback Deshaun Watson is battling a chest injury. Any loss of effectiveness by Watson should hinder Hopkins’ upside. We still advocate starting him, just with lower expectations than normal.

Brandin Cooks

  • Top 200 ranking: 20
  • Weekly ranking: 28
  • Difference: -8

As noted above, Cooks left last week’s game in Seattle with a concussion. While he might play, fantasy owners will need to keep tabs on practice reports to monitor his participation. Even if he does play, the game against the Broncos will not be easy.

Tight End

Ricky Seals-Jones

  • Top 200 ranking: 21
  • Weekly ranking: 12
  • Difference: +9

Seals-Jones gets the Vikings this week. Surprisingly, Minnesota has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to the tight end position. The Arizona offense needs the youngster to step up and this could be the week. He makes a great flier option if you have a starting tight end on a bye.

Cameron Brate

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: +4

Brate has a strong connection with Winston dating back to last year. With O.J. Howard still iffy, Brate could surprise in a what appears to be a high-scoring affair. He is a borderline TE1 this week.

George Kittle

  • Top 200 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 7
  • Difference: -3

Kittle brought high expectations into the season but has fizzled more than splashed of late. The 49ers offense has endured many injuries and must travel to Lambeau Field to face the Packers. While not a great defense, we expect Green Bay to be focused on stopping the young tight end. He will have to earn the fantasy points this week.

Feel free to (email me) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.

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