Outliers Week 4 - Footballguys

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could either have unexpected good or poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are either undervalued or overvalued in a given week. The outlier value players offer is calculated by a comparison between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the initial weekly Footballguys rankings. Both sources are from the Footballguys. com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's look at this week's outlier players.


Philip Rivers

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 4
  • Difference: +8

Rivers leads his troops against the 49ers this week. He has put up big fantasy numbers in the first three contests and has a great chance for his fourth big game in a row. San Francisco is the sixth-best matchup for opposing quarterbacks this season and the Rivers will have a solid fantasy floor.

Ryan Fitzpatrick

  • Top 200 ranking: 33
  • Weekly ranking: 3
  • Difference: +30

Fitzpatrick and company travel to Chicago this week, licking their wounds from the inconsistent performance on Monday night against Pittsburgh. The Bears allowed Sam Bradford to put up decent numbers on Sunday and the high-powered Buccaneers could make this a high-scoring affair. Fitzpatrick is playing for the starting job in this game. With a strong performance, the veteran could hold off Jameis Winston through the bye week and into Week 6.

Russell Wilson

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -7

Wilson and the Seahawks offense are struggling to get chunks of yardage. We doubt that improves until Doug Baldwin returns to the lineup. The contest in Arizona will not be an easy one for the Seattle offense. The Cardinals are mid-pack at defending opposing passers and the Seahawks are reeling offensively.

Ben Roethlisberger

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: -3

As long as the Steelers are missing Le'Veon Bell, the offense will rely on the right arm of their quarterback. The matchup against division-rival Baltimore will be a tough one for the stellar passer. The Ravens are the third-best defense at limiting fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back

Giovani Bernard

  • Top 200 ranking: 30
  • Weekly ranking: 8
  • Difference: +22

Bernard gets another juicy start in the place of Joe Mixon. The game at Atlanta should be high scoring and allow Bernard’s receiving ability to rack up PPR fantasy points. The Falcons are the third-best fantasy matchup, allowing a whopping 35. 4 PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs each week. Making the situation even better is the lack of an RB2 in the Bengals backfield.

Chris Carson

  • Top 200 ranking: 31
  • Weekly ranking: 19
  • Difference: +12

Carson took the reins of the Seahawks backfield last week and gets a premium matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona is allowing 39 PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Even if Carson splits touches 60/40, that still puts him in the elite RB1 tier for the week if the Cardinals run defense continues to be a sieve.

Dalvin Cook

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -7

Cook sat out the upset loss to the Bills on Sunday is still day-to-day for the Thursday night collision with the Rams. We do not expect him to play in the game, or very much if he does try to give it a go. The hamstring injury plus the opponent make Cook a must sit this week.

Kareem Hunt

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -4

Hunt’s lack of involvement in the passing game worries us for his rest-of-year status. The divisional matchup against Denver should be a tough, hard-fought contest. This is a game the home-team Broncos must win so we expect it to be more low-scoring than expected.

Wide Receiver

Jarvis Landry

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 5
  • Difference: +8

The Gordon trade pushes Landry to unquestioned-stud level. He should have his way with the Raiders secondary. The Oakland pass defense is the fifth-best for opposing fantasy receivers. This secondary is yielding an average of 46 PPR fantasy points every game. Landry is the prime beneficiary of the matchup and the entrance of Baker Mayfield into the lineup. He could see a high number of quality targets down the field. Mayfield is not afraid to throw in the middle of the field, either.

Robert Woods

  • Top 200 ranking: 20
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: +11

Woods is coming off a huge game in the victory over the Chargers. He should see a great matchup against Minnesota as Xavier Rhodes will be hoping to keep Brandin Cooks at bay. The Los Angeles passing game has started the season on a tear and the Thursday night tilt will tell us much about this offense. Woods has been a focal point of the offense and should continue to be.

Kenny Golladay

  • Top 200 ranking: 18
  • Weekly ranking: 24
  • Difference: -6

Golladay is emerging into a star. The matchup against the Cowboys is a difficult one. Dallas is the fourth-best defense in containing opposing fantasy receivers. They are holding entire receiver corps to just 23 PPR fantasy points per contest. Given the wealth of receiving options for Detroit, Golladay may be splitting a small pie too many ways for a quality fantasy start.

A.J. Green

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -6

Green is looking iffy to play against the Falcons with a groin injury. If he either sits out the game or is limited, Tyler Boyd should see an uptick in targets. Green is a must-start when healthy.

Tight End

George Kittle

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 5
  • Difference: +5

The loss of Jimmy Garoppolo for the season means Kittle will once again be catching passes from his college quarterback, C. J. Beathard. The expected game script shows the 49ers playing from behind, in catch up mode, passing often to score in the second half. We are predicting a top fantasy performance from the youngster.

Will Dissly

  • Top 200 ranking: 29
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: +18

Dissly has emerged to be the Seahawks starting tight end and gets quality targets deep in the middle of the field. He should continue getting the expanded targets until Baldwin returns from the knee injury. Dissly is a borderline fantasy starter this week and should only improve given his rookie status.

O. J. Howard

Top 200 ranking: 5

Weekly ranking: 14

Difference: -9

Howard was able to salvage his fantasy performance on Monday night with a strong catch-and-run. He still splits tight end targets with Cameron Brate and three quality wide receivers. The matchup against the Bears at Soldier Field will not be easy for the Tampa Bay tight ends. There are many better options, some on the waiver wire in most leagues.

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