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On Second Thought - Footballguys

A rundown of all of the value changes from the preseason and training camp

After spending months in the offseason staring at rosters, coaching changes, OTA reports, researching and searching my mind for a picture of what we’ll see when the big reveal happens in Week 1, training camp and the preseason always shakes things up. Even the most “stick to your guts” fantasy analyst has to grant that very little goes exactly how we exactly expect, and there is often a roster, depth chart, or injury shakeup to force us to re-examine our beliefs about the range of outcomes and most likely outcome for players, units, and teams. Some of you might believe this is evidence of how wishy-washy I am (which is fair), but I see it more as evidence that things do change in the summer, and even the most prescient fantasy analyst has to keep their head on a swivel.

AFC East

Buffalo

LeSean McCoy down (moderate), Kelvin Benjamin down (moderate), Charles Clay down (moderate)

This offense isn’t going anywhere this year. It’s difficult to want to buy any tickets for this ride.

Miami

Kenny Stills up (moderate), Danny Amendola up (moderate), DeVante Parker down (great), Kenyan Drake down (slight), Frank Gore up (slight)

DeVante Parker is dead to us after a poor summer and injury putting his Week 1 in doubt, which makes Kenny Stills the #1 by default and Danny Amendola a sleeper to lead this team in targets after he took hold of the slot position job. Adam Gase’s history with Miami and handling of Drake and comments about Gore during the preseason and camp has to raise at least a little doubt about how this backfield will be used during the season.

New England

Julian Edelman up (moderate), Jordan Matthews down (great), Cordarrelle Patterson up (moderate), Phillip Dorsett up (moderate), Sony Michel down (great), James White up (moderate), Jeremy Hill up (moderate)

It’s the Patriots, so formerly well-regarded talented like Hill, Patterson, and Dorsett all deserve late-round or waiver wire watch list consideration - with Matthews being eliminated from that category after he was hurt and released. Edelman looked fine upon his return to the lineup and might be a target hog. Michel’s knee being drained put a cap on his season-long upside after missing key acclimation time. More paths to value for White came open with Michel and Rex Burkhead both having knee issues in August.

NY Jets

Isaiah Crowell down (moderate), Bilal Powell up (moderate), Robby Anderson down (moderate), Quincy Enunwa up (moderate)

Clarity that Crowell would clearly lead this backup got murkier as the preseason progressed. Powell was treated more like a 1A than a complement. Anderson might not be a clear #1 with Enunwa’s return, and the team seemed to want to make Enunwa central in the passing offense when he got back on the field.

AFC South

Houston

Lamar Miller up (moderate), D’Onta Foreman down (great), Ryan Griffin up (slight), Bruce Ellington up (slight), Keke Coutee down (moderate)

Miller is closer to his Miami weight and looks quicker, while Foreman may start the year on the PUP, presenting no threat to Miller this year. Griffin has emerged from a crowded tight end picture and might earn waiver wire consideration. Coutee lost his inside track for the slot role to Ellington when he went down with a hamstring injury, but he’s back and could make noise yet, especially with Ellington’s injury history.

Indianapolis

T.Y. Hilton up (great), Andrew Luck up (great), Eric Ebron up (slight), Nyheim Hines down (great), Marlon Mack down (slight), Jordan Wilkins up (moderate)

Andrew Luck might not have his fastball back yet, but he’s going to be the engine of the offense and help support T.Y. Hilton’s possible return to fantasy WR1 status. Eric Ebron is generating some excitement around the team, and there is going to be more than enough balls to go around for competent targets with the weakness at wide receiver and in the passing game. Hines couldn’t hold onto the ball and Mack couldn’t stay on the field, so Wilkins could get an opportunity by default early in the season.

Jacksonville

Marqise Lee down (great), Keelan Cole up (great), Dede Westbrook up (moderate)

Lee’s injury makes this one self-explanatory. Cole has a chance to have semi-consistent value and be the closest thing the team has to a #1, and Westbrook, another ascendant young talent, can be the closest thing they have to a #2.

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