Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team:
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CIN
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
DET
|
SF
|
ARI
|
NO
|
SEA
|
OAK
|
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-10.5
|
-4.5
|
-4.5
|
-9.5
|
-3.5
|
-12.5
|
-0.5
|
-1.5
|
-7.5
|
-7.5
|
-5.5
|
-3.5
|
-14.5
|
-6.5
|
-2.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
LW
|
Total
|
|||||||||||||||
Alessandro Miglio
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CIN
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
OAK
|
46
|
12
|
128
|
Devin Knotts
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
46
|
12
|
126
|
Andy Hicks
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
35
|
11
|
123
|
James Brimacombe
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
TB
|
DET
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
37
|
11
|
126
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CIN
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
40
|
9
|
126
|
Bear Heiser
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
44
|
9
|
121
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
TB
|
DET
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
49
|
9
|
121
|
Keith Roberts
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
NYG
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
44
|
9
|
118
|
Sean Settle
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
NYG
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CIN
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
42
|
9
|
117
|
William Grant
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
JAC
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
43
|
9
|
117
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
47
|
8
|
120
|
Dave Larkin
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
DET
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
42
|
8
|
121
|
Matt Bitonti
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
DET
|
SF
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
58
|
8
|
110
|
Jeff Haseley
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
DET
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
43
|
7
|
127
|
Mark Wimer
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
45
|
7
|
113
|
Andrew Garda
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
40
|
6
|
106
|
Justin Howe
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
DET
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
44
|
6
|
118
|
Phil Alexander
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CIN
|
TB
|
DET
|
SF
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
43
|
6
|
125
|
Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate
NFL Week 16 was a good week for the staff overall, and we had a tie atop the standings with both Alex Miglio and Devin Knotts finishing with 12 correct picks AND the same point total for Monday Night Football. That is not to say that the staff was perfect - hardly the case. Upsets by the Giants (against the spread), Jacksonville, Seattle and Denver took a toll on the staff, but overall the record was better than 50% and the Las Vegas number (52.4%), with the staff going 156-132 (54.2%). That moved the staff to a better seasonal record, but still below 50% for the entire season (2,163-2,381 (47.6%)). Ten of the staff now have winning (>50%) records, achieving at least 121 wins through 240 games. Five of the staff have records above the Las Vegas winning percentage of 52.4% (126 or more correct picks), and the overall championship is far too close to call with five staffers between 126 and 128 wins on the year. The final week will decide it all.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team:
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
DET
|
CAR
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SF
|
CIN
|
IND
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
TB
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
TB
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-13.5
|
-7.5
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-7.5
|
-7.5
|
-7.5
|
-6.5
|
-5.5
|
-8.5
|
-2.5
|
-5.5
|
-14.5
|
-9.5
|
-14.5
|
-1.5
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
Total
|
|||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
43
|
120
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
DET
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
OAK
|
SF
|
PIT
|
IND
|
42
|
126
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
BUF
|
TB
|
DET
|
CAR
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SF
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
51
|
128
|
Andrew Garda
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
40
|
106
|
Andy Hicks
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
DET
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SF
|
CIN
|
IND
|
37
|
123
|
Bear Heiser
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
48
|
121
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
DET
|
CAR
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
ARI
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
OAK
|
SF
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
49
|
121
|
Dave Larkin
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SF
|
PIT
|
IND
|
45
|
121
|
Devin Knotts
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
DET
|
NO
|
DAL
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
CIN
|
IND
|
47
|
126
|
James Brimacombe
|
NE
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
42
|
126
|
Jeff Haseley
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
TB
|
DET
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
43
|
127
|
Justin Howe
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
DET
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SF
|
PIT
|
IND
|
44
|
118
|
Keith Roberts
|
NE
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
DET
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
TEN
|
45
|
118
|
Mark Wimer
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
KC
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
55
|
113
|
Matt Bitonti
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
TB
|
DET
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
CIN
|
IND
|
58
|
110
|
Phil Alexander
|
NYJ
|
JAC
|
MIA
|
TB
|
GB
|
NO
|
NYG
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
IND
|
43
|
125
|
Sean Settle
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ATL
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SF
|
CIN
|
IND
|
45
|
117
|
William Grant
|
NE
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
TB
|
GB
|
NO
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
OAK
|
SF
|
PIT
|
IND
|
46
|
117
|
Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Week 16 selections are in, and Week 17 is always an interesting week. With teams resting and changing their approaches to the regular season finale, point spreads are moving all over the place to set up some crazy finishes. The site that we use for point spreads has the Titans favored, while most have the Colts at this point, for example. Chicago is claiming to be ready to play hard, which has moved the Bears line closer to 3 from an original 5-6 point spread. Those movements helped the staff reach some consensus with the Saints, Eagles, Seattle and the Chargers all receiving 16 of 18 possible picks across the board. The Colts come in next with 15 votes as an "underdog", while the Jets, Bears and Chiefs received 14 votes. Houston, Atlanta and Pittsburgh received 13 selections, while Dallas (11) and Buffalo (10) round out majority picks. Both the Packers-Lions and Ravens-Browns games were split 9-9 across the staff. In all, five underdogs were majority picks (led by Indianapolis) and five road teams were favored by the staff. If things break right, it could be a strong week - or a lump of coal in the stocking. Check back next week for our final standings for the regular season!
ODDS AND ENDS
This is the final week of the regular season, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com