Win. Your. League.

Receive 3 Free Downloads More Details

Against The Spread Pool: Week 14 - Footballguys

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Road Team:
NO
IND
CLE
BUF
ARI
CAR
BAL
CHI
DEN
LAR
NYJ
KC
SF
MIN
LAC
WAS
Home Team:
DAL
JAC
HOU
MIA
GB
TB
ATL
NYG
CIN
DET
TEN
OAK
SEA
NE
PIT
PHI
Favorite:
NO
IND
HOU
MIA
GB
CAR
BAL
CHI
DEN
LAR
TEN
KC
SEA
NE
PIT
PHI
Point Spread:
-7.5
-3.5
-4.5
-5.5
-14.5
-3.5
-1.5
-4.5
-3.5
-9.5
-9.5
-15.5
-10.5
-6.5
-3.5
-6.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
LW
Total
Aaron Rudnicki
DAL
IND
HOU
BUF
ARI
TB
BAL
CHI
DEN
LAR
NYJ
KC
SEA
MIN
LAC
PHI
44
12
101
Andy Hicks
DAL
JAC
HOU
BUF
ARI
CAR
BAL
CHI
DEN
LAR
NYJ
KC
SEA
NE
PIT
PHI
61
12
97
Alessandro Miglio
DAL
JAC
HOU
BUF
ARI
TB
ATL
CHI
DEN
DET
NYJ
OAK
SF
NE
PIT
PHI
51
11
103
Danny Tuccitto
DAL
IND
HOU
BUF
ARI
TB
ATL
NYG
DEN
LAR
NYJ
KC
SF
MIN
PIT
PHI
49
10
96
Dave Larkin
NO
IND
HOU
BUF
ARI
CAR
BAL
CHI
DEN
LAR
NYJ
OAK
SF
MIN
LAC
PHI
37
10
100
Justin Howe
DAL
IND
HOU
BUF
ARI
CAR
BAL
CHI
DEN
LAR
NYJ
KC
SEA
MIN
LAC
WAS
45
10
98
Matt Bitonti
NO
IND
HOU
BUF
ARI
TB
ATL
CHI
DEN
DET
TEN
OAK
SEA
NE
LAC
PHI
58
10
91
Andrew Garda
NO
IND
HOU
MIA
ARI
CAR
BAL
CHI
DEN
LAR
NYJ
KC
SEA
NE
PIT
PHI
45
9
85
Jeff Pasquino
NO
IND
HOU
BUF
GB
CAR
BAL
CHI
DEN
LAR
TEN
KC
SEA
NE
PIT
PHI
47
8
97
Bear Heiser
DAL
IND
HOU
BUF
ARI
CAR
ATL
CHI
DEN
LAR
TEN
KC
SEA
MIN
PIT
PHI
44
8
92
Jeff Haseley
DAL
JAC
HOU
BUF
ARI
CAR
ATL
CHI
CIN
LAR
TEN
KC
SEA
NE
PIT
WAS
43
8
105
Sean Settle
NO
IND
HOU
BUF
ARI
CAR
ATL
CHI
DEN
LAR
NYJ
OAK
SF
MIN
PIT
PHI
44
8
96
William Grant
NO
IND
HOU
MIA
ARI
CAR
BAL
CHI
DEN
LAR
NYJ
KC
SEA
NE
PIT
WAS
46
8
94
Devin Knotts
NO
IND
CLE
MIA
ARI
TB
ATL
NYG
CIN
LAR
NYJ
KC
SF
NE
LAC
WAS
45
7
96
Mark Wimer
NO
IND
HOU
MIA
GB
CAR
BAL
CHI
DEN
LAR
TEN
KC
SEA
MIN
LAC
PHI
42
7
91
Phil Alexander
DAL
IND
CLE
MIA
GB
TB
ATL
NYG
DEN
LAR
TEN
KC
SEA
MIN
LAC
WAS
43
7
101
James Brimacombe
NO
JAC
CLE
BUF
GB
CAR
ATL
CHI
DEN
LAR
TEN
KC
SEA
MIN
PIT
PHI
47
6
99
Keith Roberts
NO
IND
CLE
MIA
ARI
CAR
ATL
NYG
DEN
LAR
TEN
KC
SEA
MIN
PIT
PHI
44
6
94

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

NFL Week 13 was a good week for the staff, as most everyone went 8-8 or better. Aaron Rudnicki and Andy Hicks both went 12-4 on a wild weekend full of upsets, but Aaron's tiebreaker total score (44) was just three points off of the 28-13 Eagles win on Monday Night Football. Alex Miglio was just one pick back at 11-5 and five more staffers finished at 10-6. The staff nailed their two larger majority picks, going 16-2 on both the Broncos and Rams. The staff had a great week collectively, going 157-113 (58.1%) for the week. Losses by the Colts (14 picks), Bears (14), Chiefs (14) and Panthers (12) were nicely offset by wins for Houston (14), Arizona (14), Seattle (13), Philadelphia (13) and Buffalo (12). The staff overall raised the total overall record to 1,736-1,896 (47.8%), inching closer to that respectable 50% win rate.

Checking the overall standings, nine staffers now have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 97 or more wins out of 192 contests through 13 weeks. Four of the nine staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.4% or better), with Jeff Haseley (105) just a few games ahead of Alex Miglio (103), Aaron Rudnicki (101) and Phil Alexander (101). Only four weeks of the NFL regular season remains, so time is running out for the rest of the staff to catch the leaders.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team:
JAC
CAR
NYJ
NYG
ATL
NO
BAL
NE
IND
DEN
CIN
DET
PHI
PIT
LAR
MIN
Home Team:
TEN
CLE
BUF
WAS
GB
TB
KC
MIA
HOU
SF
LAC
ARI
DAL
OAK
CHI
SEA
Favorite:
TEN
CAR
BUF
WAS
GB
NO
KC
NE
HOU
DEN
LAC
ARI
DAL
PIT
LAR
SEA
Point Spread:
-4.5
-1.5
-3.5
-1.5
-5.5
-8.5
-6.5
-8.5
-4.5
-5.5
-14.5
-2.5
-4.5
-11.5
-3.5
-3.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
Season
Jeff Haseley
TEN
CLE
BUF
NYG
ATL
NO
KC
MIA
HOU
DEN
LAC
DET
PHI
OAK
CHI
SEA
43
105
Alessandro Miglio
JAC
CLE
BUF
NYG
ATL
TB
KC
MIA
IND
SF
CIN
ARI
PHI
OAK
LAR
SEA
48
103
Aaron Rudnicki
JAC
CAR
NYJ
NYG
ATL
TB
BAL
NE
HOU
SF
CIN
DET
PHI
PIT
CHI
SEA
44
101
Phil Alexander
JAC
CLE
NYJ
NYG
GB
TB
KC
MIA
IND
SF
LAC
ARI
PHI
OAK
CHI
MIN
46
101
Dave Larkin
TEN
CAR
NYJ
NYG
GB
TB
KC
NE
HOU
DEN
CIN
ARI
PHI
OAK
CHI
SEA
47
100
James Brimacombe
JAC
CLE
NYJ
NYG
ATL
NO
KC
MIA
IND
DEN
LAC
DET
PHI
PIT
LAR
SEA
43
99
Justin Howe
TEN
CAR
BUF
NYG
GB
NO
KC
MIA
HOU
DEN
LAC
DET
PHI
OAK
LAR
SEA
45
98
Jeff Pasquino
TEN
CLE
BUF
NYG
ATL
NO
KC
NE
HOU
DEN
LAC
ARI
PHI
OAK
CHI
SEA
47
97
Andy Hicks
JAC
CLE
BUF
NYG
GB
TB
BAL
NE
HOU
DEN
CIN
DET
PHI
PIT
LAR
SEA
41
97
Danny Tuccitto
JAC
CLE
BUF
NYG
ATL
TB
BAL
MIA
HOU
SF
LAC
ARI
PHI
OAK
CHI
SEA
49
96
Devin Knotts
TEN
CLE
BUF
NYG
GB
TB
KC
NE
HOU
SF
LAC
ARI
PHI
OAK
LAR
MIN
48
96
Sean Settle
JAC
CAR
BUF
NYG
ATL
NO
KC
NE
HOU
DEN
CIN
DET
PHI
OAK
LAR
MIN
50
96
Keith Roberts
JAC
CAR
BUF
NYG
ATL
NO
KC
MIA
IND
SF
LAC
DET
DAL
PIT
LAR
SEA
46
94
William Grant
TEN
CLE
BUF
NYG
GB
NO
KC
NE
HOU
DEN
LAC
ARI
PHI
PIT
LAR
SEA
48
94
Bear Heiser
TEN
CLE
BUF
NYG
GB
NO
KC
MIA
HOU
DEN
LAC
DET
PHI
PIT
CHI
SEA
44
92
Mark Wimer
TEN
CAR
BUF
NYG
ATL
NO
BAL
MIA
HOU
DEN
LAC
ARI
DAL
PIT
CHI
SEA
48
91
Matt Bitonti
TEN
CAR
NYJ
NYG
ATL
TB
KC
MIA
HOU
DEN
LAC
ARI
PHI
OAK
CHI
SEA
52
91
Andrew Garda
TEN
CLE
BUF
NYG
GB
NO
KC
NE
HOU
DEN
LAC
DET
DAL
OAK
LAR
SEA
50
85

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 13 picks are in, and we have a team where the entire staff is on board. All 18 picks are on the Giants (+1.5) at Washington this week, and with Mark Sanchez starting for Washington and the Las Vegas line now putting the Giants as a road favorite by 3.5 points, this is no surprise. Two teams are also clear strong consensus picks, as both Philadelphia (underdog at Dallas) and Seattle (hosting the Vikings on Monday Night Football) received 15 of 18 picks this week. Two additional teams are just behind at 14 picks with two home teams in Kansas City (hosting the Ravens) and Houston (vs. the Colts). Two more home favorites received 13 votes with the Bills (vs. Jets) and the Chargers (vs. Cincinnati). Denver is a road favorite at the 49ers and the Broncos received 12 votes from the staff this week. Closer calls include two underdogs with 11 picks in Cleveland (hosting Carolina) and Oakland (at Pittsburgh). It appears that the staff thinks that 11.5 points are too many for the Steelers to cover. Tennessee (10) hosting Jacksonville, Atlanta (10) as a road underdog in Green Bay, New Orleans (10) in Tampa and Miami (10) as a home underdog to New England all received slight favor from the staff, but all four games are 10-8 splits. Two 9-9 splits finish out the Week 14 list as the staff are completely torn over Detroit at Arizona and the Rams at Chicago. This could absolutely be an interesting week for the staff if all the picks play out in their collective favor for this slate. As usual, it will be very fun and entertaining to check the results come next Tuesday.

ODDS AND ENDS

There are just four weeks left in the regular season, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night (Tuesday this week!). Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com