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Against The Spread Pool: Week 10 - Footballguys

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Road Team:
OAK
ATL
KC
DET
CHI
PIT
TB
NYJ
HOU
LAC
LAR
GB
TEN
Home Team:
SF
WAS
CLE
MIN
BUF
BAL
CAR
MIA
DEN
SEA
NO
NE
DAL
Favorite:
SF
WAS
KC
MIN
CHI
BAL
CAR
MIA
DEN
SEA
NO
NE
DAL
Point Spread:
-3.5
-1.5
-8.5
-5.5
-5.5
-3.5
-6.5
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-1.5
-6.5
-6.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
LW
Total
Sean Settle
OAK
ATL
KC
MIN
CHI
PIT
CAR
MIA
HOU
LAC
NO
NE
DAL
48
11
71
Jeff Pasquino
OAK
ATL
KC
MIN
CHI
BAL
CAR
NYJ
HOU
LAC
LAR
NE
TEN
43
9
65
Jeff Haseley
SF
WAS
KC
MIN
CHI
PIT
CAR
NYJ
HOU
SEA
LAR
NE
TEN
40
9
74
Mark Wimer
SF
WAS
KC
DET
CHI
BAL
CAR
MIA
HOU
LAC
NO
NE
DAL
48
9
62
William Grant
OAK
WAS
KC
MIN
CHI
PIT
CAR
MIA
HOU
LAC
LAR
GB
TEN
44
9
68
Bear Heiser
OAK
ATL
KC
DET
CHI
PIT
TB
MIA
HOU
LAC
LAR
GB
TEN
46
8
65
Keith Roberts
OAK
ATL
KC
MIN
CHI
PIT
CAR
NYJ
HOU
LAC
LAR
GB
DAL
42
8
67
Aaron Rudnicki
OAK
ATL
CLE
MIN
CHI
PIT
TB
NYJ
HOU
SEA
NO
GB
TEN
40
7
64
Alex Miglio
SF
WAS
KC
MIN
BUF
PIT
TB
MIA
DEN
SEA
LAR
NE
TEN
45
7
74
Andrew Garda
OAK
WAS
KC
MIN
CHI
PIT
CAR
MIA
HOU
SEA
LAR
GB
DAL
45
7
59
Dave Larkin
OAK
WAS
KC
DET
CHI
PIT
TB
MIA
DEN
LAC
NO
GB
TEN
40
7
68
Devin Knotts
OAK
WAS
CLE
MIN
CHI
PIT
CAR
MIA
DEN
LAC
LAR
NE
DAL
44
7
68
James Brimacombe
OAK
ATL
KC
DET
CHI
PIT
TB
NYJ
HOU
LAC
LAR
GB
TEN
47
7
68
Justin Howe
OAK
WAS
KC
MIN
CHI
PIT
TB
MIA
HOU
SEA
LAR
GB
TEN
44
7
66
Matt Bitonti
SF
WAS
CLE
DET
CHI
PIT
CAR
NYJ
HOU
SEA
NO
GB
TEN
48
7
59
Danny Tuccitto
OAK
WAS
CLE
DET
BUF
PIT
CAR
NYJ
HOU
SEA
NO
NE
TEN
49
6
63
Andy Hicks
SF
WAS
CLE
DET
CHI
BAL
TB
MIA
DEN
LAC
LAR
GB
TEN
44
5
63
Phil Alexander
OAK
ATL
KC
DET
BUF
PIT
CAR
NYJ
DEN
SEA
LAR
GB
TEN
40
5
70

Vegas Winners - Over 52.8% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

NFL Week 9 was a clear win for Sean Settle, who walked away with 11 of 14 games correctly selected for the week. Four staffers (Jeff Pasquino, Jeff Haseley, Mark Wimer, and Will Grant) landed two picks back at 9-5 for Week 9. The staff overall had a strong week, going 135-99 (57.7%) with five group selections leading the way for victories. Wins by the Bears (15), Chiefs (13), Steelers (13), Texans (13) and Titans (13) more than counteracted losses with Oakland (13) and the Rams (12). The staff's collective strong performance raised the overall staff record to 1,194-1,336 (47.2%).

Checking the overall standings, eight staffers now have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 67 or more wins out of 134 contests through nine weeks. Three of the eight staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.3% or better), with Alex Miglio (74) now tied with Jeff Haseley (74) and both of them leading Sean Settle (71) in a close race. Just over 47% of the season remains, so there is plenty of time for the staff to catch up the rest of the way.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team:
CAR
BUF
DET
WAS
ARI
NO
NE
JAC
ATL
LAC
MIA
SEA
DAL
NYG
Home Team:
PIT
NYJ
CHI
TB
KC
CIN
TEN
IND
CLE
OAK
GB
LAR
PHI
SF
Favorite:
PIT
NYJ
CHI
TB
KC
NO
NE
IND
ATL
LAC
GB
LAR
PHI
SF
Point Spread:
-4.5
-7.5
-6.5
-2.5
-16.5
-4.5
-7.5
-3.5
-4.5
-9.5
-9.5
-10.5
-6.5
-3.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
Jeff Pasquino
PIT
BUF
CHI
TB
KC
NO
NE
IND
CLE
LAC
GB
LAR
PHI
SF
44
Aaron Rudnicki
CAR
NYJ
CHI
WAS
ARI
NO
NE
JAC
CLE
LAC
MIA
SEA
PHI
NYG
44
Alessandro Miglio
CAR
BUF
DET
TB
ARI
CIN
NE
IND
CLE
OAK
MIA
SEA
PHI
SF
48
Andrew Garda
CAR
NYJ
CHI
WAS
KC
NO
NE
JAC
ATL
LAC
GB
LAR
PHI
SF
45
Andy Hicks
CAR
BUF
DET
WAS
ARI
NO
TEN
JAC
CLE
LAC
GB
LAR
DAL
NYG
51
Bear Heiser
CAR
NYJ
DET
WAS
KC
NO
TEN
IND
ATL
LAC
GB
LAR
PHI
SF
46
Danny Tuccitto
CAR
BUF
DET
WAS
KC
CIN
TEN
JAC
CLE
OAK
MIA
SEA
DAL
SF
49
Dave Larkin
CAR
NYJ
DET
TB
KC
NO
NE
IND
ATL
LAC
GB
SEA
PHI
SF
45
Devin Knotts
CAR
NYJ
DET
TB
KC
NO
NE
JAC
CLE
LAC
GB
SEA
PHI
SF
45
James Brimacombe
CAR
BUF
CHI
TB
KC
NO
NE
JAC
CLE
LAC
GB
SEA
PHI
NYG
47
Jeff Haseley
CAR
BUF
DET
TB
KC
NO
TEN
JAC
ATL
LAC
MIA
SEA
PHI
SF
40
Justin Howe
CAR
BUF
CHI
WAS
ARI
NO
TEN
JAC
ATL
LAC
GB
SEA
PHI
NYG
45
Keith Roberts
CAR
BUF
CHI
TB
KC
NO
TEN
JAC
ATL
LAC
GB
SEA
PHI
SF
46
Mark Wimer
CAR
BUF
CHI
WAS
ARI
NO
NE
IND
ATL
LAC
GB
LAR
PHI
SF
42
Matt Bitonti
CAR
NYJ
CHI
WAS
KC
NO
NE
IND
ATL
LAC
GB
SEA
PHI
SF
48
Phil Alexander
PIT
BUF
DET
TB
ARI
CIN
TEN
JAC
ATL
LAC
GB
SEA
PHI
NYG
43
Sean Settle
CAR
BUF
CHI
TB
KC
NO
NE
JAC
ATL
LAC
GB
SEA
PHI
NYG
42
William Grant
PIT
NYJ
CHI
WAS
KC
NO
NE
IND
CLE
LAC
GB
LAR
PHI
SF
41

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 10 has five teams dominating the picks, with four of the five sizable favorites. Philadelphia (16) and the Los Angeles Chargers (16) lead the way with all but two staffers going with the favorite, including the Chargers on the road (at Oakland). New Orleans (15, at Cincinnati), Carolina (15, at Pittsburgh) and Green Bay (14, hosting Miami) round out the top five, with the Panthers the only underdog in the Top 5 picks. Three teams garnered 12 of 18 votes (Kansas City, San Francisco, and Seattle), with three more squads one step back at 11 votes (Buffalo, New England, Jacksonville). Chicago (10) and Atlanta (10) are slight leans by the staff, with the Tampa Bay - Washington clash a dead heat. Overall the group is trending towards underdogs, as only four favorites (Eagles, Packers, Chiefs, and 49ers) were majority picks, and most of the picks also favoring road teams (8 of 13 clear decisions). This could be another big week for the staff if all the picks play out in their collective favor for this slate. As usual, it will be very fun and entertaining to check the results come Tuesday.

ODDS AND ENDS

More than half of the season is now gone, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

Against The Spread Pool: Week 10