Against The Spread Pool: Week 7 - Footballguys

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Road Team:
PHI
LAC
BUF
CAR
CHI
PIT
SEA
IND
ARI
TB
LAR
BAL
JAC
KC
SF
Home Team:
NYG
CLE
HOU
WAS
MIA
CIN
OAK
NYJ
MIN
ATL
DEN
TEN
DAL
NE
GB
Favorite:
PHI
LAC
HOU
WAS
CHI
CIN
SEA
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
JAC
NE
GB
Point Spread:
-3.5
-1.5
-7.5
-1.5
-3.5
-2.5
-3.5
-2.5
-10.5
-3.5
-7.5
-2.5
-3.5
-3.5
-9.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
LW
Total
Jeff Haseley
PHI
LAC
BUF
CAR
MIA
CIN
SEA
NYJ
ARI
ATL
DEN
BAL
DAL
KC
SF
43
13
53
Alex Miglio
PHI
CLE
BUF
WAS
MIA
CIN
SEA
NYJ
ARI
ATL
LAR
BAL
JAC
NE
SF
49
10
52
Danny Tuccitto
NYG
CLE
BUF
CAR
MIA
PIT
OAK
NYJ
ARI
ATL
DEN
TEN
DAL
KC
SF
49
10
46
Sean Settle
PHI
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
PIT
SEA
NYJ
ARI
ATL
DEN
BAL
JAC
KC
GB
45
10
39
Jeff Pasquino
PHI
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
CIN
SEA
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
JAC
KC
SF
43
8
41
Dave Larkin
NYG
LAC
BUF
CAR
MIA
CIN
SEA
IND
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
DAL
NE
SF
48
8
48
Phil Alexander
PHI
LAC
BUF
WAS
MIA
PIT
OAK
NYJ
ARI
TB
LAR
TEN
JAC
NE
GB
57
8
49
Andrew Garda
PHI
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
CIN
SEA
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
JAC
KC
GB
55
7
36
Devin Knotts
NYG
CLE
HOU
WAS
MIA
CIN
OAK
IND
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
DAL
KC
SF
48
7
51
James Brimacombe
PHI
LAC
BUF
CAR
CHI
PIT
OAK
IND
MIN
ATL
DEN
TEN
JAC
KC
GB
50
7
46
Keith Roberts
NYG
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
PIT
SEA
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
TEN
JAC
KC
SF
46
7
40
Matt Bitonti
NYG
LAC
HOU
CAR
MIA
CIN
OAK
NYJ
ARI
ATL
LAR
BAL
DAL
NE
GB
55
7
40
William Grant
PHI
LAC
HOU
CAR
MIA
CIN
OAK
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
JAC
KC
GB
46
7
46
Aaron Rudnicki
NYG
CLE
HOU
CAR
CHI
CIN
OAK
NYJ
ARI
TB
DEN
BAL
JAC
KC
GB
43
5
42
Bear Heiser
NYG
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
PIT
SEA
IND
MIN
ATL
LAR
TEN
JAC
KC
GB
48
5
43
Mark Wimer
PHI
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
CIN
OAK
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
TEN
JAC
KC
GB
52
5
40
Justin Howe
NYG
CLE
HOU
CAR
CHI
PIT
OAK
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
TEN
JAC
KC
GB
48
4
45
Andy Hicks
PHI
CLE
HOU
CAR
CHI
CIN
OAK
NYJ
MIN
TB
LAR
BAL
JAC
NE
GB
58
3
46

Vegas Winners - Over 52.8% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

NFL Week 6 was a runaway victory for Jeff Haseley, who had a nearly perfect week with 13 of 15 games correct. Nice job! Three other staffers were solid with 10 wins (Alex Miglio, Danny Tuccitto and Sean Settle). The staff overall struggled slightly, even with a big week for our winner, as Carolina (15), Jacksonville (13) and the Rams (13) all cost the staff significant picks. Week 6 resulted in a slightly losing week for the staff (131-139, 48.5%), but slightly raising the overall staff record to 803-948 (45.9%).

Checking the overall standings, five staffers have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 47 or more wins out of 93 contests through six weeks. Four of the five staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.3% or better), with Jeff Haseley (53) leading Alex Miglio (52) and Devin Knotts (51) in a close race. Less than 37% of the season is behind us, so there is plenty of time for the staff to catch up the rest of the way.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team:
DEN
TEN
MIN
CAR
HOU
CLE
DET
NE
BUF
NO
LAR
DAL
CIN
NYG
Home Team:
ARI
LAC
NYJ
PHI
JAC
TB
MIA
CHI
IND
BAL
SF
WAS
KC
ATL
Favorite:
DEN
LAC
MIN
PHI
JAC
TB
DET
NE
IND
BAL
LAR
WAS
KC
ATL
Point Spread:
-2.5
-6.5
-3.5
-4.5
-4.5
-3.5
-1.5
-3.5
-7.5
-2.5
-10.5
-1.5
-6.5
-6.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
Jeff Pasquino
DEN
LAC
MIN
PHI
HOU
TB
DET
CHI
IND
BAL
LAR
DAL
KC
ATL
57
Aaron Rudnick
DEN
LAC
NYJ
PHI
HOU
CLE
DET
CHI
BUF
NO
LAR
DAL
CIN
ATL
50
Alessandro Miglio
ARI
TEN
MIN
CAR
HOU
TB
MIA
NE
BUF
NO
SF
WAS
CIN
NYG
51
Andrew Garda
DEN
LAC
MIN
PHI
HOU
TB
DET
NE
IND
NO
LAR
WAS
KC
ATL
50
Andy Hicks
ARI
LAC
MIN
PHI
JAC
CLE
DET
NE
IND
NO
LAR
DAL
CIN
NYG
65
Bear Heiser
DEN
LAC
MIN
PHI
HOU
TB
DET
NE
IND
BAL
SF
DAL
KC
ATL
64
Danny Tuccitt
ARI
TEN
NYJ
CAR
JAC
TB
MIA
CHI
BUF
BAL
SF
DAL
CIN
ATL
49
Dave Larkin
ARI
LAC
MIN
CAR
HOU
TB
DET
CHI
IND
BAL
SF
DAL
KC
ATL
45
Devin Knotts
DEN
LAC
MIN
CAR
JAC
CLE
DET
NE
IND
BAL
SF
DAL
KC
ATL
44
James Brimacombe
ARI
LAC
MIN
PHI
JAC
CLE
DET
NE
BUF
NO
LAR
WAS
KC
NYG
60
Jeff Haseley
ARI
TEN
NYJ
PHI
JAC
TB
MIA
NE
BUF
BAL
LAR
WAS
KC
ATL
51
Justin Howe
DEN
LAC
NYJ
PHI
JAC
CLE
DET
CHI
IND
NO
SF
WAS
CIN
ATL
55
Keith Roberts
ARI
LAC
MIN
CAR
HOU
CLE
MIA
NE
IND
NO
SF
WAS
KC
ATL
46
Mark Wimer
DEN
LAC
MIN
PHI
JAC
CLE
MIA
CHI
BUF
NO
LAR
WAS
CIN
ATL
42
Matt Bitonti
ARI
TEN
NYJ
PHI
JAC
TB
MIA
NE
IND
NO
SF
WAS
CIN
ATL
48
Phil Alexander
ARI
TEN
MIN
CAR
JAC
CLE
DET
NE
BUF
BAL
LAR
DAL
KC
NYG
58
Sean Settle
DEN
LAC
MIN
CAR
HOU
CLE
DET
NE
IND
NO
LAR
WAS
KC
ATL
55
William Grant
DEN
LAC
MIN
PHI
JAC
CLE
MIA
CHI
IND
BAL
LAR
WAS
CIN
ATL
56

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 7 is similar to last week, where once again there is no team where the staff is even close to all in on for this weekend. The highest consensus pick has only 14 out of 18 picks, as the Atlanta Falcons (hosting the Giants) are the top choice for the staff this week. Both the Charger (vs. Tennessee in London) and Minnesota (at the Jets) were one selection behind with 13 of 18 staffers going towards both teams here. No other team had more than 11 votes this week, which highlights the level of difficulty for Week 7 to make definitive choices against the spread. Only two underdogs were slight favorites of the staff as both Cleveland (at Tampa Bay) and New Orleans (at Baltimore) received 10 votes on the week. The staff is likely to land around 50% for Week 7 with no clear consensus, but as usual it will be fun and interesting to see how the week plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

More than a quarter of the season is now gone, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com


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