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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team:
|
IND
|
TEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
GB
|
BAL
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
DAL
|
WAS
|
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
NE
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
CIN
|
KC
|
PIT
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
SF
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
NO
|
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
NE
|
TEN
|
CAR
|
CIN
|
KC
|
PIT
|
NYJ
|
GB
|
BAL
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
SF
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
NO
|
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-10.5
|
-3.5
|
-7.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-1.5
|
-3.5
|
-5.5
|
-7.5
|
-4.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
Week 4
|
Total
|
||||||||||||||
William Grant
|
NE
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
CIN
|
KC
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
GB
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
DAL
|
WAS
|
56
|
10
|
43
|
Andy Hicks
|
IND
|
BUF
|
NYG
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
PIT
|
NYJ
|
GB
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
DAL
|
WAS
|
54
|
10
|
44
|
Devin Knotts
|
IND
|
BUF
|
NYG
|
CIN
|
KC
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
GB
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
DAL
|
WAS
|
45
|
10
|
39
|
Bear Heiser
|
IND
|
TEN
|
NYG
|
CIN
|
KC
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
GB
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
NO
|
64
|
9
|
38
|
Jeff Haseley
|
NE
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
KC
|
ATL
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
BAL
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
SF
|
PHI
|
DAL
|
NO
|
48
|
9
|
40
|
Phil Alexander
|
NE
|
BUF
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
JAC
|
PIT
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
BAL
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
PHI
|
DAL
|
NO
|
46
|
9
|
41
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
IND
|
TEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
JAC
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
GB
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
NO
|
50
|
8
|
37
|
James Brimacombe
|
IND
|
BUF
|
NYG
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
DET
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
53
|
8
|
39
|
Matt Bitonti
|
NE
|
TEN
|
CAR
|
CIN
|
KC
|
PIT
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
BAL
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
NO
|
55
|
8
|
33
|
Alex Miglio
|
IND
|
TEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
JAC
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
GB
|
CLE
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
NO
|
51
|
7
|
42
|
Andrew Garda
|
NE
|
TEN
|
CAR
|
CIN
|
KC
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
GB
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
NO
|
65
|
7
|
29
|
Dave Larkin
|
IND
|
BUF
|
NYG
|
CIN
|
KC
|
ATL
|
NYJ
|
GB
|
BAL
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
SF
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
NO
|
51
|
7
|
40
|
Justin Howe
|
IND
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
GB
|
CLE
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
PHI
|
DAL
|
NO
|
49
|
7
|
41
|
Keith Roberts
|
IND
|
TEN
|
NYG
|
CIN
|
KC
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
DET
|
BAL
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
49
|
7
|
33
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
NE
|
TEN
|
CAR
|
CIN
|
KC
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
GB
|
BAL
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
SF
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
NO
|
54
|
6
|
33
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
NE
|
TEN
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
KC
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
DET
|
BAL
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
SF
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
NO
|
49
|
6
|
36
|
Mark Wimer
|
IND
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
GB
|
BAL
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
SF
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
NO
|
69
|
5
|
35
|
Sean Settle
|
NE
|
TEN
|
CAR
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
GB
|
BAL
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
SF
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
NO
|
55
|
5
|
29
|
Vegas Winners - Over 52.8% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate
NFL Week 5 had a three-way tie at the top of the standings for the week, as Will Grant, Andy Hicks and Devin Knotts all finished with 10 of 15 games correct. Will won on the tiebreaker with 56 points, as the Saints beat Washington 43-19 on Monday Night Football. Three other staffers were one step behind and most of the staff had a solid week. The staff overall had a winning week with the same exact record as last week (138-132, 51.1%), which slightly raises the overall staff record to 672-794 (45.8%).
Checking the overall standings, seven staffers have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 40 or more wins out of 78 contests through five weeks. Five staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.3% or better), with Andy Hicks (44) slightly ahead of Will Grant (43) for the overall lead. Barely 30% of the season is behind us, so there is plenty of time for the staff to catch up the rest of the way.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team:
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
TB
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
SF
|
|
Home Team:
|
NYG
|
CLE
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
DAL
|
NE
|
GB
|
|
Favorite:
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NE
|
GB
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-7.5
|
-1.5
|
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
-10.5
|
-3.5
|
-7.5
|
-2.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-9.5
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
SF
|
43
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
NYG
|
CLE
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
TB
|
DEN
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
43
|
Alex Miglio
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
BUF
|
WAS
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NE
|
SF
|
49
|
Andrew Garda
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
55
|
Andy Hicks
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
TB
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NE
|
GB
|
58
|
Bear Heiser
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
IND
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
48
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
NYG
|
CLE
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
PIT
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
DAL
|
KC
|
SF
|
49
|
Dave Larkin
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
IND
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
NE
|
SF
|
48
|
Devin Knotts
|
NYG
|
CLE
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
IND
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
KC
|
SF
|
48
|
James Brimacombe
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
OAK
|
IND
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
50
|
Jeff Haseley
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
KC
|
SF
|
43
|
Justin Howe
|
NYG
|
CLE
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
48
|
Keith Roberts
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
KC
|
SF
|
46
|
Mark Wimer
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
52
|
Matt Bitonti
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
NE
|
GB
|
55
|
Phil Alexander
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
BUF
|
WAS
|
MIA
|
PIT
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
TB
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
NE
|
GB
|
57
|
Sean Settle
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
45
|
William Grant
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
46
|
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Week 6 is similar to last week, where once again there is no team where the staff is even close to all in on for this weekend. The highest consensus pick has 15 out of 18 picks, with both the Atlanta Falcons (hosting Tampa Bay) and the underdog Carolina Panthers (at Washington) the top choices this week. The Jets are in third with 14 picks as they host the struggling and injured Colts, while three more road teams come in with 13 selections. The road favored Rams (at Denver) and Jaguars (at Dallas) both received 13 votes, while the underdog 5-0 Chiefs (at New England) also received 13 nods. Two more teams landed 12 votes with the Chargers (favored on the road in Cleveland) and Texans (hosting the Bills) wrapping up the more one-sided selections of the staff. Seven games were close calls with five teams getting 11 of 18 votes (Bengals, Vikings, Green Bay at home, Eagles and Ravens on the road) or 10 picks (Bears at Miami, Oakland vs. Seattle in London). As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how the week plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
More than a quarter of the season is now gone, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com