Against The Spread Pool: Week 6 - Footballguys

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Road Team:
IND
TEN
NYG
MIA
JAC
ATL
DEN
GB
BAL
OAK
LAR
ARI
MIN
DAL
WAS
Home Team:
NE
BUF
CAR
CIN
KC
PIT
NYJ
DET
CLE
LAC
SEA
SF
PHI
HOU
NO
Favorite:
NE
TEN
CAR
CIN
KC
PIT
NYJ
GB
BAL
LAC
LAR
SF
PHI
HOU
NO
Point Spread:
-10.5
-3.5
-7.5
-6.5
-3.5
-3.5
-1.5
-1.5
-3.5
-5.5
-7.5
-4.5
-3.5
-3.5
-6.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
Week 4
Total
William Grant
NE
BUF
CAR
CIN
KC
ATL
DEN
GB
CLE
LAC
SEA
ARI
MIN
DAL
WAS
56
10
43
Andy Hicks
IND
BUF
NYG
CIN
JAC
PIT
NYJ
GB
CLE
LAC
LAR
ARI
MIN
DAL
WAS
54
10
44
Devin Knotts
IND
BUF
NYG
CIN
KC
PIT
DEN
GB
CLE
LAC
LAR
ARI
MIN
DAL
WAS
45
10
39
Bear Heiser
IND
TEN
NYG
CIN
KC
ATL
DEN
GB
CLE
LAC
SEA
ARI
MIN
HOU
NO
64
9
38
Jeff Haseley
NE
BUF
CAR
MIA
KC
ATL
NYJ
DET
BAL
LAC
SEA
SF
PHI
DAL
NO
48
9
40
Phil Alexander
NE
BUF
NYG
MIA
JAC
PIT
NYJ
DET
BAL
OAK
LAR
ARI
PHI
DAL
NO
46
9
41
Aaron Rudnicki
IND
TEN
NYG
MIA
JAC
PIT
DEN
GB
CLE
LAC
SEA
ARI
MIN
HOU
NO
50
8
37
James Brimacombe
IND
BUF
NYG
CIN
JAC
ATL
DEN
DET
CLE
LAC
LAR
ARI
MIN
HOU
WAS
53
8
39
Matt Bitonti
NE
TEN
CAR
CIN
KC
PIT
NYJ
DET
BAL
OAK
LAR
ARI
PHI
HOU
NO
55
8
33
Alex Miglio
IND
TEN
NYG
MIA
JAC
PIT
DEN
GB
CLE
OAK
SEA
ARI
PHI
HOU
NO
51
7
42
Andrew Garda
NE
TEN
CAR
CIN
KC
ATL
DEN
GB
CLE
LAC
LAR
ARI
PHI
HOU
NO
65
7
29
Dave Larkin
IND
BUF
NYG
CIN
KC
ATL
NYJ
GB
BAL
OAK
LAR
SF
MIN
HOU
NO
51
7
40
Justin Howe
IND
BUF
CAR
CIN
JAC
ATL
DEN
GB
CLE
OAK
SEA
ARI
PHI
DAL
NO
49
7
41
Keith Roberts
IND
TEN
NYG
CIN
KC
ATL
DEN
DET
BAL
LAC
LAR
ARI
MIN
HOU
WAS
49
7
33
Jeff Pasquino
NE
TEN
CAR
CIN
KC
PIT
DEN
GB
BAL
LAC
LAR
SF
PHI
HOU
NO
54
6
33
Danny Tuccitto
NE
TEN
CAR
MIA
KC
ATL
DEN
DET
BAL
LAC
SEA
SF
PHI
HOU
NO
49
6
36
Mark Wimer
IND
BUF
CAR
CIN
JAC
ATL
DEN
GB
BAL
LAC
LAR
SF
MIN
HOU
NO
69
5
35
Sean Settle
NE
TEN
CAR
CIN
JAC
ATL
DEN
GB
BAL
LAC
LAR
SF
MIN
HOU
NO
55
5
29

Vegas Winners - Over 52.8% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

NFL Week 5 had a three-way tie at the top of the standings for the week, as Will Grant, Andy Hicks and Devin Knotts all finished with 10 of 15 games correct. Will won on the tiebreaker with 56 points, as the Saints beat Washington 43-19 on Monday Night Football. Three other staffers were one step behind and most of the staff had a solid week. The staff overall had a winning week with the same exact record as last week (138-132, 51.1%), which slightly raises the overall staff record to 672-794 (45.8%).

Checking the overall standings, seven staffers have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 40 or more wins out of 78 contests through five weeks. Five staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.3% or better), with Andy Hicks (44) slightly ahead of Will Grant (43) for the overall lead. Barely 30% of the season is behind us, so there is plenty of time for the staff to catch up the rest of the way.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team:
PHI
LAC
BUF
CAR
CHI
PIT
SEA
IND
ARI
TB
LAR
BAL
JAC
KC
SF
Home Team:
NYG
CLE
HOU
WAS
MIA
CIN
OAK
NYJ
MIN
ATL
DEN
TEN
DAL
NE
GB
Favorite:
PHI
LAC
HOU
WAS
CHI
CIN
SEA
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
JAC
NE
GB
Point Spread:
-3.5
-1.5
-7.5
-1.5
-3.5
-2.5
-3.5
-2.5
-10.5
-3.5
-7.5
-2.5
-3.5
-3.5
-9.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
Jeff Pasquino
PHI
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
CIN
SEA
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
JAC
KC
SF
43
Aaron Rudnicki
NYG
CLE
HOU
CAR
CHI
CIN
OAK
NYJ
ARI
TB
DEN
BAL
JAC
KC
GB
43
Alex Miglio
PHI
CLE
BUF
WAS
MIA
CIN
SEA
NYJ
ARI
ATL
LAR
BAL
JAC
NE
SF
49
Andrew Garda
PHI
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
CIN
SEA
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
JAC
KC
GB
55
Andy Hicks
PHI
CLE
HOU
CAR
CHI
CIN
OAK
NYJ
MIN
TB
LAR
BAL
JAC
NE
GB
58
Bear Heiser
NYG
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
PIT
SEA
IND
MIN
ATL
LAR
TEN
JAC
KC
GB
48
Danny Tuccitto
NYG
CLE
BUF
CAR
MIA
PIT
OAK
NYJ
ARI
ATL
DEN
TEN
DAL
KC
SF
49
Dave Larkin
NYG
LAC
BUF
CAR
MIA
CIN
SEA
IND
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
DAL
NE
SF
48
Devin Knotts
NYG
CLE
HOU
WAS
MIA
CIN
OAK
IND
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
DAL
KC
SF
48
James Brimacombe
PHI
LAC
BUF
CAR
CHI
PIT
OAK
IND
MIN
ATL
DEN
TEN
JAC
KC
GB
50
Jeff Haseley
PHI
LAC
BUF
CAR
MIA
CIN
SEA
NYJ
ARI
ATL
DEN
BAL
DAL
KC
SF
43
Justin Howe
NYG
CLE
HOU
CAR
CHI
PIT
OAK
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
TEN
JAC
KC
GB
48
Keith Roberts
NYG
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
PIT
SEA
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
TEN
JAC
KC
SF
46
Mark Wimer
PHI
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
CIN
OAK
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
TEN
JAC
KC
GB
52
Matt Bitonti
NYG
LAC
HOU
CAR
MIA
CIN
OAK
NYJ
ARI
ATL
LAR
BAL
DAL
NE
GB
55
Phil Alexander
PHI
LAC
BUF
WAS
MIA
PIT
OAK
NYJ
ARI
TB
LAR
TEN
JAC
NE
GB
57
Sean Settle
PHI
LAC
HOU
CAR
CHI
PIT
SEA
NYJ
ARI
ATL
DEN
BAL
JAC
KC
GB
45
William Grant
PHI
LAC
HOU
CAR
MIA
CIN
OAK
NYJ
MIN
ATL
LAR
BAL
JAC
KC
GB
46

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 6 is similar to last week, where once again there is no team where the staff is even close to all in on for this weekend. The highest consensus pick has 15 out of 18 picks, with both the Atlanta Falcons (hosting Tampa Bay) and the underdog Carolina Panthers (at Washington) the top choices this week. The Jets are in third with 14 picks as they host the struggling and injured Colts, while three more road teams come in with 13 selections. The road favored Rams (at Denver) and Jaguars (at Dallas) both received 13 votes, while the underdog 5-0 Chiefs (at New England) also received 13 nods. Two more teams landed 12 votes with the Chargers (favored on the road in Cleveland) and Texans (hosting the Bills) wrapping up the more one-sided selections of the staff. Seven games were close calls with five teams getting 11 of 18 votes (Bengals, Vikings, Green Bay at home, Eagles and Ravens on the road) or 10 picks (Bears at Miami, Oakland vs. Seattle in London). As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how the week plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

More than a quarter of the season is now gone, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com