Against The Spread Pool: Week 3 - Footballguys

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

***TABLE 1***

Road Team:
BAL
HOU
KC
PHI
LAC
CAR
IND
CLE
MIN
MIA
DET
ARI
OAK
NE
NYG
SEA
Home Team:
CIN
TEN
PIT
TB
BUF
ATL
WAS
NO
GB
NYJ
SF
LAR
DEN
JAC
DAL
CHI
Favorite:
BAL
HOU
PIT
PHI
LAC
ATL
WAS
NO
GB
NYJ
SF
LAR
DEN
NE
DAL
CHI
Point Spread:
-0.5
-4.5
-5.5
-3.5
-7.5
-5.5
-5.5
-8.5
-0.5
-2.5
-5.5
-13.5
-5.5
-2.5
-2.5
-3.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
LW
Total
James Brimacombe
CIN
HOU
KC
PHI
LAC
CAR
IND
CLE
MIN
MIA
DET
LAR
OAK
JAC
NYG
SEA
44
11
19
Andy Hicks
CIN
HOU
KC
PHI
LAC
ATL
WAS
CLE
MIN
NYJ
SF
LAR
OAK
JAC
DAL
SEA
41
10
20
Danny Tuccitto
CIN
HOU
KC
TB
LAC
CAR
IND
NO
MIN
NYJ
SF
LAR
DEN
JAC
NYG
SEA
49
8
17
Justin Howe
CIN
TEN
PIT
PHI
LAC
CAR
IND
CLE
MIN
NYJ
DET
ARI
DEN
JAC
NYG
SEA
44
8
17
Aaron Rudnicki
CIN
TEN
KC
PHI
LAC
CAR
IND
CLE
MIN
NYJ
SF
ARI
DEN
NE
NYG
SEA
44
7
17
Bear Heiser
CIN
HOU
KC
TB
LAC
CAR
WAS
NO
MIN
NYJ
SF
LAR
DEN
NE
NYG
CHI
48
7
17
Dave Larkin
BAL
HOU
KC
TB
LAC
ATL
WAS
NO
MIN
NYJ
SF
LAR
DEN
NE
DAL
SEA
46
7
16
Keith Roberts
BAL
HOU
KC
TB
LAC
CAR
WAS
NO
MIN
NYJ
SF
LAR
DEN
JAC
NYG
CHI
48
7
14
Matt Bitonti
BAL
HOU
KC
PHI
BUF
ATL
WAS
CLE
MIN
NYJ
SF
LAR
DEN
JAC
NYG
CHI
61
7
14
Jeff Pasquino
BAL
HOU
KC
PHI
LAC
ATL
WAS
NO
MIN
NYJ
SF
LAR
DEN
NE
NYG
CHI
45
6
16
Alessandro Miglio
CIN
TEN
KC
PHI
BUF
CAR
IND
CLE
GB
NYJ
SF
ARI
DEN
NE
DAL
SEA
47
6
17
Phil Alexander
CIN
HOU
PIT
PHI
BUF
ATL
IND
NO
MIN
MIA
SF
ARI
OAK
NE
NYG
SEA
40
6
15
Andrew Garda
BAL
HOU
PIT
PHI
LAC
CAR
WAS
CLE
MIN
NYJ
SF
LAR
DEN
NE
NYG
CHI
50
5
12
Jeff Haseley
CIN
TEN
KC
PHI
BUF
CAR
WAS
NO
MIN
NYJ
SF
ARI
DEN
NE
DAL
SEA
41
5
17
Mark Wimer
BAL
HOU
KC
PHI
LAC
ATL
WAS
NO
GB
NYJ
SF
ARI
DEN
JAC
NYG
CHI
35
5
16
William Grant
BAL
HOU
KC
PHI
BUF
ATL
WAS
CLE
MIN
MIA
SF
ARI
DEN
NE
NYG
SEA
46
5
14
Devin Knotts
CIN
HOU
PIT
PHI
BUF
CAR
WAS
CLE
MIN
MIA
SF
ARI
DEN
NE
NYG
SEA
44
4
17
Sean Settle
BAL
HOU
KC
PHI
LAC
CAR
WAS
NO
MIN
NYJ
DET
ARI
DEN
NE
NYG
SEA
48
4
13

NFL Week 2 was far more difficult for the Footballguys' staff than Week 1. Only two staffers - James Brimacombe (11 correct) and Andy Hicks (10) were above 50% with their picks. Big losses by the Eagles, Giants, Jets, and Texans cost the group overall, as did slim victories by the 49ers and Broncos. The grand total for the Footballguys' Staff was just 118 correct picks out of 288, a weak 41% showing and virtually the exact opposite of Week 1. The staff now sits just under 50% (288-304, 48.6%) on the young season. Much work is left to be done to get over the Las Vegas house advantage of 52.3%.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team:
NYJ
SF
DEN
NYG
OAK
GB
IND
CIN
TEN
NO
BUF
LAC
DAL
CHI
NE
PIT
Home Team:
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
WAS
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
ARI
DET
TB
Favorite:
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
PIT
Point Spread:
-3.5
-6.5
-5.5
-5.5
-3.5
-2.5
-6.5
-3.5
-6.5
-3.5
-16.5
-7.5
-2.5
-5.5
-6.5
-1.5
Staffer
The Picks
MNF
Jeff Pasquino
CLE
KC
DEN
HOU
OAK
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
SEA
CHI
NE
TB
54
Aaron Rudnicki
NYJ
SF
DEN
HOU
OAK
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
NO
MIN
LAC
SEA
CHI
NE
PIT
50
Alessandro Miglio
CLE
SF
DEN
NYG
MIA
GB
IND
CAR
JAC
NO
BUF
LAC
SEA
ARI
NE
TB
56
Andrew Garda
CLE
KC
DEN
HOU
MIA
GB
IND
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
DAL
CHI
NE
TB
55
Andy Hicks
NYJ
SF
BAL
NYG
OAK
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
NO
BUF
LAR
DAL
ARI
DET
TB
59
Bear Heiser
NYJ
KC
DEN
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAC
SEA
CHI
NE
TB
64
Danny Tuccitto
NYJ
KC
DEN
NYG
MIA
WAS
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAC
DAL
CHI
DET
TB
49
Dave Larkin
NYJ
KC
DEN
NYG
OAK
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
NO
MIN
LAC
SEA
ARI
NE
PIT
53
James Brimacombe
NYJ
SF
DEN
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAC
SEA
CHI
DET
PIT
53
Jeff Haseley
CLE
KC
BAL
NYG
MIA
WAS
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAC
SEA
ARI
NE
TB
55
Justin Howe
NYJ
KC
DEN
NYG
MIA
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
NO
MIN
LAC
SEA
ARI
DET
TB
55
Keith Roberts
NYJ
KC
DEN
HOU
MIA
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
ATL
BUF
LAR
DAL
CHI
NE
TB
58
Mark Wimer
CLE
KC
BAL
HOU
OAK
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAR
DAL
CHI
DET
TB
77
Matt Bitonti
CLE
SF
DEN
HOU
MIA
GB
IND
CIN
JAC
NO
MIN
LAC
SEA
CHI
NE
TB
55
Phil Alexander
NYJ
SF
BAL
NYG
MIA
GB
IND
CAR
JAC
ATL
BUF
LAR
SEA
ARI
NE
PIT
61
Sean Settle
CLE
KC
DEN
HOU
OAK
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
ATL
MIN
LAC
SEA
CHI
NE
TB
70
William Grant
NYJ
KC
DEN
NYG
MIA
GB
PHI
CIN
JAC
NO
BUF
LAC
DAL
ARI
NE
TB
53
Devin Knotts
CLE
SF
DEN
NYG
OAK
GB
PHI
CAR
JAC
NO
BUF
LAR
SEA
ARI
NE
PIT
43

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 3 has our first unanimous pick for 2018 as all 18 of the staffers in the pool are going with Jacksonville to take care of business at home and beat the Titans by more than a touchdown. Green Bay is the second-most popular pick (16 of 18) as a road favorite in Washington by less than a field goal. Denver (14) is the most popular of five underdogs favored by the staff, with the Broncos heading to Baltimore and getting over five points of a head start. Philadelphia (13), Tampa Bay (13, home underdog) and New England (13) are also majority picks, but after that only two other teams (Minnesota, Seattle - both 12) had at least a two-thirds majority. The Chargers (at the Rams), Jets (at Cleveland) and Bengals (at Carolina) join Denver and Tampa Bay as underdogs the staff are on this week. As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how NFL Week 3 plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

Only two weeks of the NFL season are in the books, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com