For The Win: Week 11 - Footballguys

Photo: USA Today Sports

Well, the hot streak finally came to an end, as upsets happened almost too often in Week 10 with Tennessee beating New England and the Eagles disappointing at home against the Cowboys. Even though the upset pick of Cleveland over Atlanta was correct, Week 10 was the first losing week in over a month. Now, as always, prior weeks have no impact on the next slate of games, but there is a warning coming for Week 11. This week should be known more as “Hell Week". Back when I Will Survive was first written in August, this week was identified as the most problematic on the schedule by far, and that remains the case. Why? Six teams are on a bye, and nearly all of the 13 games this week have teams squaring off of similar caliber. Do not be surprised if this week represents the least amount of games to play for the season, as this is a very difficult slate. Here we go:

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

BYE WEEKS: Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, New England, New York Jets, San Francisco

TEAMS RETURNING FROM A BYE: Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Minnesota

(Thursday) SEATTLE (-2.5) vs. GREEN BAY (Over/Under 49 to 49.5)
Two teams start Week 11 on Thursday that are playing in what could be considered a November elimination game. Green Bay (4-4-1) has two more road games in the NFC North with the Vikings next week and Chicago in December (Week 15), but the rest of their contests all look winnable. The Seahawks have the tougher remaining schedule with the Vikings and Chiefs at home and a road game in Carolina. Both teams need this game, and it looks very much like a coin flip at this point. Seattle is always a tough place to play, but the Seahawks have been gashed on the ground (5.0 yards per carry against). That means Aaron Jones could have a field day here and keep the Packers alive. Very tough call, and I will default to the home team on Thursday night, but this game can easily go in either direction. PICK: Seahawks

BALTIMORE (-3.5 to 4) vs. CINCINNATI (Over/Under not listed)
Another challenging game here with a clash of AFC North foes in Maryland. These two squared off on a Thursday night back in Week 2, with the Bengals walking away with a big 34-23 win. That game featured A.J. Green for three touchdown catches, but he will be missing this contest due to injury. That’s a huge plus for the Ravens, who have had two weeks to prepare for this key game to try to right their season and get into the playoffs. A win here to get back to 5-5 would do wonders for the Ravens, who will be favored to win all but two (at Kansas City, at the Chargers) of their final six matchups. The biggest reason to like Baltimore over Cincinnati comes from third down defense, as the Ravens are fourth at 35.2% while the Bengals are dead last at 56.2%. PICK: Ravens

DALLAS (+3) at ATLANTA (Over/Under 47.5 to 48)
Both of these teams are going to try to convince themselves that they have realistic playoff hopes, but with five NFC teams at 6-3 or better, two 4-5 teams are going to struggle to have a real shot. Dallas can still win the NFC East, but they have next to no margin for error left. The same can be said for the Falcons, who have a trip to New Orleans on Thanksgiving night, a visit to Lambeau Field in December (brrr), and one more visit to Carolina in Week 16. Atlanta must beat the Falcons and probably the Packers to make the playoffs, simply because the math in the NFC standings says that a team with seven losses will not make the postseason. As for this matchup, both teams struggle on defense on third downs, but Dallas is far better against the run than the Falcons, who were trashed by Cleveland last week. Ezekiel Elliott will continue to eat and lead the attack for the Cowboys, while Matt Ryan will try to keep pace. Take the team on the win streak getting points in a tough call. PICK: Cowboys

CAROLINA (-3.5 to 4) at DETROIT (Over/Under 51 to 51.5)
The Panthers have had 10 days to get ready for the Lions, and after getting dominated by the Steelers last Thursday, Carolina will be aching to put up a good performance. Detroit was also pounded last week by the Bears, 34-22 in a game where Chicago led 34-10 in the third quarter. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey can match or better the performances of Mitch Trubisky and Jordan Howard, and the Panthers need to keep winning to hang on to the hope of battling the Saints in Weeks 15 and 17 for the NFC South title. PICK: Panthers

TENNESSEE (+2 to +2.5) at INDIANAPOLIS (Over/Under 48 to 48.5)
Welcome to another coin flip game, as the Titans travel to Indianapolis. Both teams have middle of the road records, but are also riding winning streaks. The 4-5 Colts took care of the Jaguars 29-26 last week, while the 5-4 Titans routed New England 34-10. Both teams have softer schedules the rest of the way, so either team could stay hot and potentially win most – if not all – their remaining games and get into the playoffs. Digging a little deeper, the Colts have only beaten one winning team (Washington) while the Titans have two (Texans, Patriots). With Tennessee just scoring their highest point total of the season and getting a few points of a head start, the lean here is towards the road team getting points. PICK: Titans

NEW YORK GIANTS (-1 to EVEN) vs. TAMPA BAY (Over/Under 52)
For a slate with just 13 games, there sure seem to be a lot of bad matchups. The Giants come off of a short week after a late win over the 49ers in San Francisco, while the Buccaneers have to recover after racking up over 500 yards against Washington but falling apart in the Red Zone so often that they only scored three points. This is another coin flip between two teams going nowhere fast, so take the team with momentum after a victory and heading home against a Florida team that has to play in New Jersey in November. PICK: Giants

HOUSTON (-2.5 to 3) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 42.5)
Washington gave up over 500 yards last week to Tampa Bay yet managed to walk away with a victory, thanks to a number of Red Zone miscues by the Buccaneers. Houston is coming off of their bye week and will be coming after Alex Smith, who is barely getting adequate protection behind a decimated offensive line. Washington also is struggling on third downs, ranking in the bottom five in getting off the field. As long as the Texans take care of the football, they should be able to go in to D.C. and come out with a victory. PICK: Texans

PITTSBURGH (-5 to 5.5) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 47 to 47.5)
For every game that gets flexed onto Sunday Night Football (Bears/Vikings), there is another game that gets removed. That would be the Steelers-Jaguars tilt, mostly due to the lackluster performance this season by Jacksonville. The Jaguars have struggled all season, amounting just a 3-6 record, and now they host a red hot Steelers team that just blew out Carolina last Thursday. The Jaguars tried to keep up with Indianapolis last week but Andrew Luck picked them apart, and Ben Roethlisberger should be doing the same to them this week. Pittsburgh needs every victory they can get if they hope to stay ahead of New England for a playoff bye. PICK: Steelers

ARIZONA (-4) vs. OAKLAND (Over/Under 47.5 to 48)
Must we? Another bad matchup here between two teams just playing out the string already in mid-November. Oakland has scored nine points combined in their last two games, but the Cardinals have been putting up a decent fight with a victory over San Francisco before their bye and a respectable 26-15 loss in Kansas City. As long as Arizona gets into the end zone at least once, they should have all they need to continue Oakland’s march towards the first pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. PICK: Cardinals

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-7) vs. DENVER (Over/Under 46.5 to 47)
Every week this story does not change – the Chargers are undefeated against everyone but the Rams and Chiefs this season. Denver comes off of their bye week and two losses to the Chiefs and Texans, and now they get to go to California to face Philip Rivers, who is quietly having an outstanding season (21:4 TD:INT, 2,459 yards passing). Denver is also giving up 4.8 yards per carry against, which will set up Melvin Gordon for another big day. Chargers 27, Denver 17. PICK: Chargers

NEW ORLEANS (-7.5 to 8) vs. PHILADELPHIA (Over/Under 54.5 to 55)
The Saints have been virtually unstoppable since their upset loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1, winning eight in a row. New Orleans has scored 96 points the past two weeks, winning over the Rams (their only loss) and the Bengals in sizeable fashion. The Saints have scored 40 or more points five times already this season, while the Eagles have only topped 30 points once. Philadelphia’s season is on the brink after their home loss to Dallas that put the Eagles at 4-5. Philadelphia has had to replace almost their entire secondary due to injuries, and that is never a good thing when you are about to play Drew Brees in the Big Easy. New Orleans will win this game easily. PICK: Saints

MINNESOTA (+2.5 to +3) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 45.5)
The battle for supremacy in the NFC North wraps up Week 11’s Sunday action with the Vikings heading to Soldier Field to take on the 6-3 Bears. Minnesota is just one-half game back (5-3-1) so the winner will hold the divisional top spot with five games to go, and another matchup in Minnesota in Week 17. The Vikings are coming in with the benefit of their bye week, so they have had two weeks to get ready for Mitch Trubisky. With both teams very strong on defense, this will likely come down to a few big plays by the offense. With Stefon Diggs and Dalvin Cook likely to be at or near 100% for this matchup, and with the Vikings getting a few extra points, that seems like the best direction for a lean. PICK: Vikings

(Monday – in Los Angeles) KANSAS CITY (+2.5 to +3.5) “at” LOS ANGELES RAMS (Over/Under 63.5)

Note – It is worth noting that this game is no longer going to be played in Mexico City, as originally planned. The game has been move to Los Angeles due to bad field conditions at Estadio Azteca. That means there will be no altitude factors for this contest, so kicking should be more normal, and players should be able to breathe more regularly, if no wildfires impact this matchup.

Some games get overhyped during the regular season, but not this one. Once the Chiefs and Rams started to be dominant forces in their respective conferences, this matchup became appointment television for Monday Night Football – for everyone who is a football fan. To put this game in perspective, this is a matchup of two teams with the best records this late in the regular season since the Giants-49ers met in 1990. Also noteworthy is that point total of 63.5 – the largest total in 30 years for an NFL contest. This game, without overstating it, could easily be the preview of Super Bowl LIII. The only surprising part is that the Rams are the favorites. Both teams have outstanding offenses with numerous playmakers, but the loss of Cooper Kupp for the Rams is significant. Josh Reynolds is a strong backup, and he will contribute, but Kupp was on pace for 10 touchdowns and over 1,000 yards. This game could be a wild one, back and forth, where the last team with the ball wins. With the game in Mexico City as well, altitude could be a factor for not just the kicking game but also for the players and their ability to perform for all four quarters. This has all the makings of a 37-34 shootout, so taking the points in a 50-50 contest is the smartest way to play it. PICK: Chiefs

PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Pittsburgh, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans

THIS WEEK'S PLAYS

The intent of this column is to give out not only the Plays for the Week in the NFL but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Unit scale. The more units, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game. (More units = More $$$).

The games are very tough in Week 11, so tread lightly.

* ONE UNIT PLAYS *

• 6-POINT TEASER: (Thursday) SEATTLE (+3.5) vs. GREEN BAY (Over 43)
• 6-POINT TEASER: (Thursday) GREEN BAY (+8.5) at SEATTLE (Over 43)

** TWO UNIT PLAYS **

• PITTSBURGH (-5) at JACKSONVILLE
• LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-7) vs. DENVER
• NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA

• 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):

• 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):

Good luck this weekend!

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