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For The Win: Week 10 - Footballguys

NFL Picks Against the Las Vegas Lines

There is no other way to say it – these picks have been on FIRE for over a month now. Last week the Picks of the Week were a perfect 5-0 and the Weekly Plays were over 80% yet again (35.1-6) even with my glaring omission of my usual five-team teaser. As an aside – if there is a 6-team teaser and no 5-team teaser, the 5-team teaser is the same set of picks minus the sixth pick of that 6-team teaser. So while the picks missed out on an extra 4.1 units, 35.1-6 is not too shabby at all. This six-week hot streak has resulted in +212.3 units over that span, which would have translated to over $21,000 on $100 unit plays. Now, of course, that is not everyone’s budget, but wins are wins and profits are profits.

Here is the sobering news – at some point, this hot streak is going to taper off and possibly end. It could be next week or next month, but it will happen. The only thing to do is to keep the same process and hope for the best, same as each and every week. Week 10 looks a little tricky and Las Vegas has not really helped much with lines. Throw in that we have four more teams on a bye and the level of difficulty never seems to go down. Fourteen games to discuss, so let’s get started. Here we go:

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

BYE WEEKS: Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Minnesota

TEAMS RETURNING FROM A BYE: Arizona, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New York Giants, Philadelphia

(Thursday) PITTSBURGH (-3.5 to 4) vs. CAROLINA (Over/Under 51.5 to 52)
Here is one of the trickiest games of the week, with the 6-2 and underrated Carolina Panthers heading to Pittsburgh on a short week. Both teams are on winning streaks and scoring almost at will, so looking at the defenses may shine a light on the right team to choose. Pittsburgh has kept the opposition at 21 points or less the past four weeks, while the Panthers just gave up 28 points to Tampa Bay. On a short week with a lack of familiarity with each other, matchups could dictate. The Steelers have done very well against the run game all season long with no running back topping 80 yards on the ground and no more than five receptions per contest. Given that Carolina runs the offense through Christian McCaffrey and TE Greg Olsen, if Pittsburgh can maintain a solid rush defense and limit these two players, the Steelers should win this close, exciting game by about a touchdown. Take the home team on Thursdays is a generally good idea, so that is the lean in a tough matchup to call. Steelers 30, Panthers 23. PICK: Steelers

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