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New Reality No.121: Regression and Matchups - Footballguys

Navigating the ever-changing landscape of dynasty fantasy football

Here is an update on the quarterback touchdown regression data from 2017 and an early look at regression candidates from 2018:

TOUCHDOWN REGRESSION

2017 Regression List

If this continues with Russell Wilson, he will be the first quarterback to rise in touchdown rate after a season of 10% or higher dating back to 2005. Trubisky's rise of 6% is in line with the typical regression of a low touchdown rate.

2018 Regression Hot List

INTERCEPTION REGRESSION

2017 Regression List

Deshone Kizer and Trevor Siemian are the two quarterbacks of qualifying attempts to post at least 9.5% interception rate. Neither are starting in 2018. On the low end:

2018 Regression Hot List

Jameis Winston is dwarfing the previous highs in the 12-14% range. However, those names were long-term starters in the NFL like Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, and Ben Roethlisberger. The average regression the following season was cutting their INT rate in half - a good sign for Winston assuming he is the starter somewhere in 2019. If Ryan Fitzpatrick continues on his >10% TD and INT pace, he will join 2007 Tony Romo as the only other quarterback to qualify in both categories in the sample.

Only two quarterbacks before this season had qualifying volume with sub-2.0% INT rates - Tom Brady in 2016 and Nick Foles in 2013. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are on pace to join the elite group in 2018.

Alex Smith has been borderline allergic to interceptions in his career with six seasons now of 5.0% or lower INT rate with qualifying volume.

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