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New Reality No.119: Quarterback and Tight End Dynasty Trading

Navigating the ever-changing landscape of dynasty fantasy football

Finishing the midseason dynasty trading series, this week's installment discusses quarterback and tight ends to target:

leveraging stock formats for quarterbacks

In typical start-1 formats, few quarterbacks stand out in their impact on fantasy results. The position is as deep as ever and more than a dozen options are all similar outside of Patrick Mahomes II and maybe Drew Brees. One of the bigger projects in recent years I took on over the past month is collecting MFL start rate data and looking at adjusted fantasy points, as fantasy points scored on a team's bench has minimal value and vice versa a dud performance in a lineup is of high impact. The end result is a number I have labeled 'True Impact'. Another method, with the same general premise, but looking at fantasy win-loss impact over a regular season (13 weeks) is WORP, or wins over replacement player. To highlight the 'quarterbacks in a start-1 do no matter much' premise, Patrick Mahomes II through seven weeks is sitting at 0.88 WORP, but there are a number of options in the 0.40 to 0.65 range. While Mahomes is the biggest difference maker at the position, a host of other quarterbacks are less than a half-a-win less. In layman terms, a 4-3 team with a decent QB1 is likely 4.5-2.5 (give or take) with Mahomes instead. This is a small difference in the grand scheme of seven weeks of a fantasy regular season for having the top option of a position.

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