With Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season upon dynasty general managers, there are pressing questions in terms of team management to assess:
James Conner: Market Assessment
James Conner (and LeVeon Bell) are two of the most interesting dynasty assets heading into Week 1. For Conner, he projects as the clear starter on a good offense until Bell returns. This could be Sunday, Week 2, midseason, or not at all. The stakes are high with Conner as a result. The market is all over the place in terms of recent returns for Conner. On the high side, some have garnered the likes Brandin Cooks or a future Round 1 pick as the centerpiece of a deal. Others have sold Conner for a future Round 2 pick or collection of middling assets.
As opposed to kicking the can down the road with a future Round 2 pick or equivalent, aim high. Conner has RB1 opportunity every week Bell is out. Also, if Bell returns to his perch as the Steelers' workhorse, Conner is still one injury away from Bell, who avoided injury with a late report and huge workload last season and is tempting fate again in 2018, to the same workload as projected today without Bell in the lineup. Brandin Cooks is a quality target. Also, young backs who are unlikely to contribute early in the season like Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, and even looking to 2019 with Derrius Guice.
As for LeVeon Bell, my adjustment with the recent news is to accelerate Bell's age half a year to account for him missing half of the 2018 season. It may be more or less, but we have to start in the middle. Also, let's not forget Bell is in the substance abuse spectrum of the NFL's suspension program for any future transgressions. Plus, in terms of changing teams next offseason, I view the average outcome outside of Pittsburgh to be a downgrade from the quality line, passing game weapons, quarterback, and usage Bell received with the Steelers. All in all, Bell has dropped around 20% in value in my dynasty value model and now is behind the likes of Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey of note. All three have a massive advantage in prime years remaining and have high-RB1 production upside going forward.
Know Your Tendencies (Optimize Roster Spots)
Dynasty general managers, in order to optimize their roster spots, need to know their own tendencies. Are you one to use late rookie picks on long-term hold prospects and be patient with them? If so, the waiver wire is not a weekly highlight to churn through the flavors of the week/month in search for the next big (or moderate) thing. As a result, trading blind bidding money is an optimal move to get an upgrade somewhere on your roster. On the flip side, general managers who are highly active on the waiver wire and chase what could happen by the next week, need to pair that in-season (or even in August) approach with how they handle the annual rookie draft. If there will be minimal allegiance to rookies (especially lower pedigree ones) in the first 6-12 months of their career, then trading the picks is a valid approach. Also, the classic two-for-one and three-for-two types dynasty trades would work well to give these general managers more roster spots to churn with the next upside bet.
Let Things Settle
Once Week 1 gets rolling, overreaction theater will be in full effect. We will have one regular season data point in the last nine months for these NFL players and teams. Is it a false positive (or negative)? Generally, it takes a few weeks to get a sense of how the NFL teams are operating on offense independent of a singular game script and opponent in Week 1. For example, if you are willing to hold a primary backup running back, with the thought they will be irrelevant outside of an injury to the team's starter, why bail after Week 1? If the depth chart and projected upside of the backup are still intact, nothing has changed with the starting lineup-bound upside if one thing (injury) occurs. However, if the No.2 back is betting pressed for snaps for the No.3 back or the entire offense looks like a limiting factor early in the season, these could be signs to move in another direction with the roster spot.
Dynasty To-Do List Items
Bet on running backs
With final roster spots, running backs (to clarify, primary backup types) are far more likely to benefit from an injury in front of them than other skill positions. The exceptions would be adding backup quarterbacks in superflex or start-two formats and the same for start-two formats with tight ends. Here are the affordable primary backup running backs still out there in some leagues:
Turbin comes with an asterisk as he is serving a suspension to start the season and you may not want to wait, instead observe him from the waiver wire and pick up in Weeks 2-3 if the Colts backfield lacks a strong RB1 presence.
Prey on Uncertainty
Check your leaguemates' rosters to see signs of weakness. They may need a quarterback with Carson Wentz's season debut uncertain. They may have ambiguous running backs like LeVeon Bell or relying on a rookie or committee-type backfield for one of their starters. Being the 'fixer' to another general manager's roster problem is a way to fast-track dynasty trades in-season and maximize your return for a player.
Think Ahead
A key part of dynasty is looking ahead with what could happen. Even during the regular season, this can be asking 'what has to occur for Player X to be a hot waiver wire add next week?' For running backs, the answer is typically an injury or maybe a pair of costly fumbles by a young back. For wide receivers, seek out unsettled depth charts to take a dart throw at who emerges. The Jets stand out in this regard. Terrelle Pryor is finally healthy and could emerge. Jermaine Kearse is dealing with an injury. Robby Anderson is the tenuous WR1. Another is Dallas, where Michael Gallup, Cole Beasley, Allen Hurns, Terrance Williams, and a pair of tight ends (Geoff Swaim, Blake Jarwin) all fight for early-season targets. There may be one or two clear winners of the group who emerge as weekly fantasy starters. Having a horse in the race is the only way to benefit from depth-chart clarity down the line.