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Don't Overthink It: Marvin Jones is Priced Right - Footballguys

A detailed look at Marvin Jones' fantasy prospects for 2018

Point: Marvin Jones Jr is a value in fantasy football. He finished 2017 ahead of his draft position, and this year's ADP hasn't caught up. His volume in 2018 should meet or exceed the consistent volume he saw in 2016 and 2017.

Counterpoint: Jones is a questionable pick because his 2017 results were touchdown-dependent. And Detroit's passing volume has decreased in each of the last two seasons.

While there are reasons to be pessimistic about Jones, it would take many more if's coming true for his floor to be a reality. And there are easy ways to believe he can be as good or better than last season. Jones is being drafted at his floor, making him an excellent -- and safe -- value in fantasy football. Let's take a back-and-forth look at Jones' possibilities this season.


The Regression to the Mean Argument

Year
Targets
Receptions
Yards
TDs
FP/Game
Rank
2016
103
55
930
4
11.4
WR44
2017
107
61
1101
9
13.8
WR13

As the bold font indicates, the main difference in Jones' last two seasons is the number of touchdowns he scored. If you believe in touchdown regression, you may think that Jones is likely to fall from the nine he caught in 2017. Even if he does, though, he's still a safe investment due to... 

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