High-Variance Players: WR Chris Hogan - Footballguys

The Footballguys staff discusses the high side and low side of Chris Hogan

When August rolls around, the fantasy football community usually reaches a consensus on most players. Chris Hogan isn't one of those players. While he's averaging somewhere around WR40, he has been ranked between 25 and 67 at his position. What are your thoughts on him? Is he underrated or overrated? Or neither?

Jason Wood: He's WR30 in my rankings and I have to constantly fight the urge to move him higher. Jordan Matthews was placed on injured reserve. Julian Edelman is suspended for the first month. Chris Hogan is the only bonafide playmaker in the receiving corps with a shot at 16 games. He's going to be high variance because he's an outside receiver and the Patriots won't always throw downfield if it doesn't fit the game script. But he'll have huge games, as well, and that makes him an ideal WR3.

Daniel Simpkins: I like him at WR40 and think it’s pretty easy to make a part of my draft plan because he tends to go so late. The fact that Jordan Matthews didn’t pan out makes him all the more appealing to me. A shoulder injury derailed a year that was off to a promising start in 2017. Back at full strength, I think he’ll be someone Brady looks to early, especially with Edelman out for the first quarter of the year.

Will Grant: Tom Brady doesn't lock onto any particular receiver (except maybe Rob Gronkowski) so he tends to get the ball to the guy who is open. As Jason points out, Hogan looks like he's going to be the best option for that - especially in the early part of the season with Edelman gone. The problem is those games where he's going to turn in 1 catch for 8 yards. In a standard league, he's a boom or bust type of player at a flex position. Some weeks he'll cement your win - some he'll drag your team down. You'll just have to ride the roller coaster. In a best-ball format, he's a solid pick for wide receiver and will probably be in your lineup 3/4 of the time. I'd rank him in the mid-30s for wide receivers.

Chad Parsons: I am neutral on Chris Hogan from a value perspective. I project more production and impact from Hogan in the opening month with Julian Edelman suspended, but Hogan should recede back to a matchup-based WR3/4 fantasy utility by midseason. Eric Decker can temper Hogan's production as well with his recent signing.

Dan Hindery: Hogan is a screaming value in drafts right now and should be ranked in the WR25 range. He will be the undisputed WR1 for New England the first four games of the season. Whoever the other starting wide receivers (Kenny Britt, Phillip Dorsett, and Eric Decker) end up being, Hogan should be well ahead of them and see a huge workload. Even when Julian Edelman returns in Week 5, there is no guarantee he displaces Hogan as the top receiver. Edelman is 32-years old and coming off of a torn ACL.

Andy Hicks: Chris Hogan turns 30 this year and his current ADP has him way above his best season ever. Apart from the ever-present Rob Gronkowski at tight end, the rest of the Patriots receivers are a fairly even group, until Julian Edelman returns and given the stage his career is at, he comes back to the pack as well. Hogan is being taken around the sixth round, which places him as a starting fantasy option. Way too overvalued.

Phil Alexander: I'm not ready to slap the boom/bust tag on Hogan. From Weeks 1-5 last year (the only weeks he didn't appear on the injury report or suffer an in-game injury), Hogan scored at least 17 PPR fantasy points in all games but one. With the exception of New England's goofy Week 1 loss to Kansas City (remember the one that had the national media wondering if Tom Brady had lost it?), Hogan had at least 6 targets, 60 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown in each of those games, and was the team's top red-zone target, ahead of Gronkowski.

Is Kenny Britt standing in that guy's way? The washed version of Eric Decker? Phillip Dorsett? It certainly won't be Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, or Julian Edelman (for the first 30 percent of the fantasy football regular season). More than enough opportunity exists in New England for Hogan to finish as a high-end WR2, making him an outstanding value in this ADP range. Nagging injuries are the only concern.

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