The FPC: Wide Receivers - Footballguys

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By studying the rules of both the FFPC and the FPC along with some of the history and previous performances by FPC players, insights can be found that will help many players to not only compete well in both contests but also to be in a position to win their league and be in the running for a top prize in the championship round.

As the summer rolls on, I will continue analyzing many aspects of the Footballguys Players Championship and the Fantasy Football Players Championship. Through these articles, I hope to provide extra help with fully understanding how to best build a top-notch fantasy team within the contest. As someone who has competed against the best players in the world and in several contests much like the FPC and the FFPC, I fully understand how every possible advantage and extra edge can make all the difference in the world.

THE WIDE RECEIVER POSITION

Under the microscope this time around is the position of wide receiver. According to the rules of the Footballguys Players Championship, the rosters are as follows:

Starting Roster

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 2 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 2 flex players (RB/WR/TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 team defense

With the following relevant scoring system in place:

• 4 points for passing touchdowns, 6 points for all other touchdowns
• 0.1 point for every 1 yard rushing or receiving
• 1.5 points per reception for tight ends

So how do you analyze the impact of this scoring system to the current crop of potential fantasy wide receivers? We need to dig into some numbers.

First, let's take a look at both the projected scores for the Top50 wide receivers this season and calculate some VBD numbers using the worst starter method (more on that in a minute). The results are in Table 1:

Table 1: FPC Projected Fantasy Points For Top 50 Wide Receivers

First a comment on the worst starter method. Even though only 24 WRs are necessary as starters (the rules require two wide receivers per team), the Dual Flex rule put more of them into play. As a result, the 42nd wide receiver is regarded as the last starter - meaning that most teams will be going with at least one wide receiver as one of two flex players, and probably even two most weeks.

Also note that the table stopped with just 50 wide receivers, but you should expect several more to be drafted. The reasoning is that after about Round 15 (Pick 180), many of the teams select kickers and defenses, so ADP pretty much goes out the window. Just know that several more skill players are going to be selected in the final five rounds, so do not be shy to grab one you really want.

The VBD does not do much for a complete analysis without some context of other positions. Looking at the Draft Dominator, you can run a mock draft to get a feel for when the various wide receivers are slated to come off of the draft board. Table 2 gives some more insight as to when the mock draft says to take a wideout:

Table 2: Draft Dominator FPC Mock - ADP For Top 50 Wide Receivers

Based on the results, stud wide receiver Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins should push for the top two receiver spots but will be selected in the middle of the first round (most likely) with owners focusing on grabbing elite feature running backs first. The next tier of wide receivers (WR3-WR8) should be mostly exhausted by the end of Round 2, and the first run on the position is most likely to happen in Round 3 where 9 of 12 picks will go towards the receiver position. That means about a third of all teams will have two (or more) wideouts after three picks. Unlike in previous years, there is never really a gap for very long between wide receiver picks, but two more runs are likely on WR3s in Round 6 and WR4s in Rounds 8-9. Forty-one of the Top 100 picks look to be wide receivers, and roughly eight more should go by Pick 120, showing that most teams will already have at least four of them by the end of 10th round.

This is great for a mock draft, but how about some real-life comparisons? With the help of Clayton Gray here at Footballguys, he has pulled together some great ADP data based on early FPC drafts and created current ADP data for all of the top players. We can use this information to compare against the Draft Dominator mock results. Here are both ADPs compared side-by-side and their relative differences:

Table 3: Draft Dominator FPC Mock vs. 2018 FPC Data - Comparison of ADPs

Several key facts can be pulled from Table 3 about wide receivers and FPC scoring:

• The Top 15-17 wideouts are going in the first three rounds with consistency. The PPR scoring and the top-heavy perspective of the upper tiers combined with many FPC players wanting to secure one or two stud wide receivers makes the best of the best go early.
• The Draft Dominator mock does point towards a few wide receiver runs as each positional tier (ends of WR3s and WR4s) throughout the draft, and the ADP of the 2018 FPC Drafts tends to agree with that suggestion. That means that whenever fantasy drafters have questions as to where to turn in the draft, the default would be to take their favorite wide receiver in any of Rounds 3-10. The position in the FPC has a ton of value and the draft focus never waivers off of the wide receivers for very long at all.
• In both formats, WR37 goes at nearly the same point (the end of Round 8). That means that just about every team will have three (or more) wideouts as of Pick 96. That meshes well with the worst-starter method and the Dual Flex usage of one or two wide receivers per team (the worst starter is projected as WR42).

PARTING THOUGHTS

Every fantasy league and its rulebook are a little different. For the FPC and the FFPC, the wide receiver position has reasons to both emphasize and de-emphasize the wideouts. On the one hand, only two wide receivers are required to have a legal lineup. If a team has four stud running backs or three of them and two TE1s, a WR3 is way down on the priority list. The other side of the coin is that WR3s are far easier to collect than two stud tight ends or three or four feature running backs.

So what is the right answer? Moderation with a splash of studliness. The Top 10 wideouts will go early, and WR11-20 will go quickly thereafter as in both studies all those guys are gone by the end of Round 3 or at the latest the early part of Round 4. The recommendation would be to snag two Top 20 wideouts as quickly as possible but not to overlook true feature running backs. It is not uncommon at all to have a start of two running backs and two wide receivers format or even those four spots plus either a tight end or quarterback after five rounds. The key is to make sure not to fall behind at wide receiver or running back and then worry about depth. Being able to see a WR3 with WR2 (or even WR1) upside also affords you to address other spots while waiting to grab a third receiver. The biggest three rules not to overlook are PPR scoring, only having to start two WRs, and also the ability to put three or four in a lineup with the Dual Flex. That flexibility allows many different directions to build a successful team.

It takes a little time to get your mind wrapped around a new contest with a new set of rules, but the time spent is often well worth it if the goal is to field a competitive team. Giving a little bit of effort to get a greater understanding of the twists and turns to the rulebook can give turn a good fantasy player into a great one and a great player into a dominant force. Knowledge is power - so be as powerful as you can!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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