Fantasy Overview: Week 9 - Footballguys

Get yourself caught up on what's going on in the league as we enter Week 9 of the NFL season. Here's my take on the fantasy landscape around the league and how you can benefit. 

Week 8 is complete and the season is halfway over for the teams who have yet to have their bye. In most fantasy leagues there are only four or five more weeks left before the playoffs begin. Is your team in position for a playoff run? Do you need a few more wins to secure a berth? This week I take a look at some streaming options not only for Week 9 but also the rest of the season. It's always good to look ahead a few weeks for waiver claims or in some cases, four or five games ahead.

QUARTERBACK

Over the last four weeks, Miami, Detroit, Atlanta, and Oakland have averaged nearly three passing touchdowns allowed per game. Atlanta and Detroit are also allowing over 300 yards passing per game, Atlanta - 348 yards per game on average! Other defenses to exploit include:

Upcoming schedule:

Miami: NYJ, at GB, Bye, at IND, BUF
Who stands to benefit: Sam Darnold Week 9, Aaron Rodgers Week 10, Bye Week 11, Andrew Luck Week 12, Josh Allen Week 13

Detroit: at MIN, at CHI, CAR, CHI
Who stands to benefit: Kirk Cousins Week 9, Mitchell Trubisky Week 10 & 12, Cam Newton Week 11.

Atlanta: at WAS, at CLE, DAL, at NO
Who stands to benefit: Alex Smith Week 9, Baker Mayfield Week 10, Dak Prescott Week 11, Drew Brees Week 12

Oakland: at SF, LAC, at ARI, at BAL
Who stands to benefit: C.J. Beathard Week 9, Philip Rivers Week 10, Josh Rosen Week 11, Joe Flacco Week 12

Other teams to target your quarterback against - stats against over the last four weeks

  1. Cincinnati - 346 passing yards allowed per game and 2.3 touchdown passes per game. Bye, NO (Brees), at BAL (Flacco), CLE (Mayfield)
  2. New England - 341 passing yards allowed per game and 2.3 touchdown passes per game. GB (Rodgers, at TEN (Mariota), Bye.
  3. Washington - 307 passing yards allowed per game but only 1.8 touchdown passes per game. ATL (Ryan), at TB (Fitzpatrick), HOU (Watson)

RUNNING BACK

Running back streaming is more about opportunity than matchup because there aren't many streaming running back options available on the waiver wire, but there may be some possibilities sitting on your bench. Looking ahead, here are some marquee matchups to take note of.

Exploit these opponents: Cincinnati, Oakland, Cleveland, Denver, Miami, Arizona, San Francisco, Tampa Bay

Cincinnati - next four games Bye, NO, at BAL, CLE

  • The Bengals have allowed 32.9 PPR fantasy points per game over the last four weeks
  • Running backs have scored on average 1.0 rushing touchdowns and 0.8 receiving touchdowns against the Bengals over the last four weeks.

Who stands to benefit?
Week 9 Bye
Week 10 New Orleans (Mark Ingram II, Alvin Kamara)
Week 11 at Baltimore (Alex Collins, Ty Montgomery)
Week 12 Cleveland (Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson Jr)

Oakland - next four games at SF, LAC, at ARI, at BAL

  • The Raiders have allowed the second most PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last four weeks (31.4), including 140 rushing yards per game and 1 rushing touchdown per game.

Who stands to benefit?
Week 9 at San Francisco (Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert)
Week 10 LA Chargers (Melvin Gordon III, Austin Ekeler)
Week 11 at Arizona (David Johnson)
Week 12 at Baltimore (Alex Collins, Ty Montgomery)

Cleveland - next four games KC, ATL, Bye, at CIN

  • The Browns have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last four weeks, including 126 rushing yards per game and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game.

Who stands to benefit?
Week 9 Kansas City (Kareem Hunt)
Week 10 Atlanta (Tevin Coleman, Ito Smith)
Week 11 Bye
Week 12 at Cincinnati (Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard)

Denver - next four games HOU, Bye, at LAC, PIT

  • The Broncos have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last four weeks, including a league-leading 162 rushing yards per game and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game.

Who stands to benefit?
Week 9 Houston (Lamar Miller)
Week 10 Bye
Week 11 at LA Chargers (Melvin Gordon III, Austin Ekeler)
Week 12 Pittsburgh (James Conner, Le'Veon Bell?)

Other teams to exploit:

Miami: 146 rushing yards allowed per game to running backs (last 4)
Arizona: 134 rushing yards allowed per game to running backs (last 4)
San Francisco: 1.3 rushing touchdowns allowed per game to running backs (last 4)
Tampa Bay: 1.3 rushing touchdowns allowed per game to running backs (last 4)

WIDE RECEIVER

There are several teams to exploit at wide receiver in the next four weeks, which I'll display below, but here's a few you should stay away from:

Avoid
Minnesota and Jacksonville:

  • The Vikings have not allowed a receiving touchdown to a wide receiver in the last four games and have allowed an average of only 9 receptions to wide receivers in that same span. The fewest of all teams.
  • The Jaguars have played five games this year where opposing wide receivers did not score. Only two wide receivers all year have had more than 7 receptions in a game against Jacksonville.

Minnesota next four opponents: DET, Bye, at CHI, GB

Jacksonville next four opponents: Bye, at IND, PIT, at BUF

Teams to Exploit

  • New Orleans - The Saints on average allow 16 receptions, 1.9 receiving touchdowns and 236 yards to wide receivers this season. All are league-leading statistics.
  • Tampa Bay - 16 receptions allowed per game to wide receivers, 1.9 receiving touchdowns allowed to wide receivers and 212 average yards to wide receivers over the last four weeks.
  • NY Jets - 17 average receptions per game allowed to wide receivers over the last four weeks, including 1.8 receiving touchdowns allowed per game in that span.
  • Cincinnati and Atlanta - Both have allowed on average 203 and 202 yards to wide receivers this season. Atlanta has allowed 1.7 receiving touchdowns per game to wide receivers.

Next four games

New Orleans: LAR, at CIN, PHI, ATL
Tampa Bay: at CAR, WAS, at NYG, SF
NY Jets: IND, at MIA, BUF, Bye, NE
Cincinnati: Bye, NO, at BAL, CLE
Atlanta: at WAS, at CLE, DAL, at NO

TIGHT END

Streaming tight ends on a weekly is a popular strategy that can be the difference between a win and a loss. Here are some matchups over the next four weeks to exploit and avoid.

Avoid
Tennessee, New Orleans, and Seattle

  • The Titans have not allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season and have only allowed a tight end to exceed 3 catches in a game once - Zach Ertz in Week 4. Aside from Ertz, their schedule against tight ends has been weak so far, but it's hard to ignore those defensive stats.
  • The Saints have allowed only 1 touchdown to tight ends this year, and no tight end has exceeded 4 catches in a game against them. This includes games against Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed, O.J. Howard, Austin Hooper, and David Njoku.
  • Seattle has allowed only one touchdown to tight ends as well - Trey Burton in Week 2. No tight end has exceeded 52 yards receiving against them, and only Geoff Swaim has caught more than 4 passes.
Next four games

Tennessee: at DAL, NE, at IND, at HOU
New Orleans: LAR, at CIN, PHI, ATL
Seattle: LAC, at LAR, GB, at CAR

Exploit

  • Carolina - The Panthers allow a league-high 7 receptions per game to opposing tight ends this season, including 0.7 touchdowns per game. The Panthers have played seven games and a tight end has scored in five of them.
  • Cincinnati - The Bengals have allowed a tight end to score at least once in five different games this year. They also allow 7 receptions per game on average to opposing tight ends.
  • Pittsburgh - The Steelers have allowed 73 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
  • Tampa Bay - The Bucs allow a league-high 82 yards receiving per game to opposing tight ends and have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four of the last five games.
  • New England - The Patriots have allowed a tight end to gain over 100 yards and a score in two different games this year (IND and CHI). They have allowed 5 touchdowns to tight ends in total this season.

Next four games

Carolina: TB, at PIT, at DET, SEA
Cincinnati: BYE, NO, at BAL, CLE
Pittsburgh: at BAL, CAR, at JAC, at DEN
Tampa Bay: at CAR, WAS, at NYG, SF
New England: GB, at TEN, Bye, at NYJ

Good luck this week. Go get your playoff berth.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com