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Fantasy Football 2018: Early Draft Arbitrage - Footballguys

An early look at draft arbitrage to help optimize draft results.

Training camp is here. It’s Christmas in July!

Fantasy football gears are already churning, and that means we have some good draft data to sift through. We can see where players have been valued throughout the offseason and identify some values and potential busts.

Average Draft Position (ADP) has come under fire in recent years. Some find its usefulness dubious at best, and fantasy owners should certainly never rely on ADP alone to navigate their drafts. But ADP can be leveraged into an optimal draft path.

Of course, individual websites will affect respective ADP by nature of their rankings. That is part of the reason why consensus ADP* is not a good sole source for draft strategy information. But what we discuss here can be used as a blueprint for finding value and avoiding pitfalls in drafts.

One more thing — don’t be afraid to “reach” for a player. Sometimes value is the golden calf for fantasy owners, but don’t be afraid to take a player a round or two early if you really like him. That may seem to fly in the face of what we are looking at below, but it really means you shouldn’t feel nervous about taking, say, Cameron Meredith in the 10th round instead of the 12th. If you believe he is going to hit in New Orleans, go for it.


Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: QB14, Rank: QB10)

He’s back.

Well, he’s throwing a small football without pain, and it looks like he might be back. The Mystery of Andrew Luck is closer to being solved — or at least forgotten — as he continues his journey back to starting in the NFL.

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