As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, more and more people are looking for insight on what games to bet on and what lines to take. One approach is to look at the ‘popular’ lines, where people follow the crowd and bet on the games that everyone else is betting. This ‘Go with the Flow’ mentality can provide a sense of security because if a lot of other people are doing it, there must be something there.
But sometimes the public can have it wrong. Sometimes the flow of the water leads to a waterfall. Sometimes, it’s better to go against the flow – or maybe even avoid the flow completely. In this series, we’ll look at some of those situations, and give you our thoughts behind why it might be good to fade the public trend and look for other opportunities.
Now that deep into the season, the public has become more in tune with the trends and strengths of every team. The public money trends toward being right more often than at the beginning of the season and spotting potential value becomes a bit more difficult.
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS
Public Trend – 75% of the public bets favor Atlanta
The Falcons fired up last week, putting 38 points on Washington on the road. Julio Jones finally found the end zone and Matt Ryan had 350 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. They rank 5th in total offense, averaging 412 yards and more than 28 points per game. The Browns hung tough against the red-hot Kansas City offense, but were outscored 19-6 in the second half. Their offense still struggles, and they are ranked 23rd producing just 347 yards and 21 points per game. Their defense has issues as well, and they allow nearly 28 points per game to their opponents. The coaches may have changed, but people still think of this team as the ‘Same Old Browns’ – and they are heavy on the Falcons to come into Cleveland and unload on them like they did Washington last week.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
Back to Back road games is hard on any team, and this week they travel to Cleveland where it will be cold with a chance of snow. The Falcons are just 1-2 against the spread on the road while Cleveland is 3-2 against the spread at home. Atlanta’s defense isn’t great, and they are ranked 28th in the league, allowing 412 yards per game. They are especially vulnerable to the run, allowing some big game to Christian McCaffery and Alvin Kamara, and allow 4.8 yards per carry and have give up 10 rushing touchdowns so far. Cleveland still has their struggles but they are improving as the season wears on. Beating Kansas City last week was a tall order for new head coach Gregg Williams, but road-weary Atlanta presents a more manageable opportunity. The public expects and other Atlanta blow-out, but the Browns at home with a 6 point spot is a very tempting counter-play.
NEW YORK GIANTS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Public Trend ** - Some Sites show the Giants getting 61% of Public Action
The Giants are not a great team, but neither is San Francisco. Nick Mullens had a great game last Thursday night against a soft Raider defense, but the Giants should put up a much better fight this week. The Giants are ranked 16th in passing defense, allowing just 244 passing yards per game and only 10 passing TDs over the first eight games. They are also coming off a bye week so they have two weeks to prepare for this game. They are 3-1 against the spread on the road this season, while the 49ers are just 2-2 at home against the spread. The 49ers defense gives up a lot of points, and they average almost 27 points per game allowed.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
The graphic above indicates something different, and some sites like this one show the 49ers getting more action than others. The Giants may be coming off a bye week, but there are plenty of teams that have come out flat after the bye this season and the Giants have not shown that they can buck that trend. Nick Mullens looked poised last week and should be again this week in front of the home crowd. The New York offense is pretty poor as well, averaging less than 19 points per game before the break. With a Monday night match-up on the slate for both teams, it is easy to see how the 49ers might be more fired up than the Giants and could cover the small 3.5 point spread.
BUFFALO BILLS AT NEW YORK JETS
Public Trend ** Some Sites show the Jets getting 60% of the Action
*Note Josh Allen is practicing and could be back under center in this game.
Earlier in the week, after Chicago blew out the Bills in Buffalo, the public money flooded to the Jets. But news of Josh Allen being healthy and with a chance to play, the Bills are picking up momentum as the +7 line gives them a strong chance to cover.
The Bills are bad. Really bad. They are only team in the league to have scored less than 100 total points this season. They are averaging just over 10 points per game. Their offense is ranked 31st in the league, averaging 248 YPG. Their rushing offense is slightly better, ranked 23rd in the league, averaging just 97 yards per game. The Jets are ranked 13th in total defense, allowing just 351 yards and less than 24 points per game. They are 3-6 overall against the spread but are 2-2 at home.
Why you may want to fade the trend.
The Jets aren’t much better on offense, averaging just 310 yards per game. Against the Dolphins last week, the Jets managed just two field goals, and rookie quarterback Sam Darnold threw four interceptions, including a Pick-6 that ultimately lost the game. As mentioned above, Buffalo could have Josh Allen back under center this week. While Allen isn’t Tom Brady, he is light-years ahead of the other Buffalo signal-callers and he does know how to move the team. With an over/under of just 36.5, two terrible offenses and two above-average defenses, giving the Bills a full touchdown advantage seems like a great play.
* graphics and numbers are from covers.com.
