The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade should be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, it is a trade offer worth strongly considering.
The May Dynasty Trade Value Chart will focus primarily on the value of the rookie picks. I will make the case for Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel as worthy of the 1.02 and 1.03 picks in rookie drafts and take a step back to look at longer-term NFL trends and how these trends should alter your approach to your rookie drafts.
Lastly, wthe dynasty trade values of all of the veterans will be broken down by position with some quick bullet points about the player values most impacted by the NFL Draft.
A note on the rookie pick values: The numbers you see are the value of the picks and not necessarily the players that are listed according to my rankings. In every league, there will be a premium on 1.02 vs. 1.03 or 1.04 even though most owners will have different rankings than mine. There will be a cost to pay if you want the first choice of the top backs versus having to wait and choose from a more limited pool a few picks later.
|Rookie Pick||Rookie||Team||Pick Value|
|1.01||RB Saquon Barkley||NYG||45|
|1.02||RB Rashaad Penny||SEA||22|
|1.03||RB Sony Michel||NE||20|
|1.04||RB Nick Chubb||CLE||19|
|1.05||RB Derrius Guice||WAS||18|
|1.06||RB Ronald Jones II||TB||17|
|1.07||WR D.J. Moore||CAR||15|
|1.08||RB Kerryon Johnson||DET||13|
|1.09||RB Royce Freeman||DEN||11|
|1.10||WR Calvin Ridley||ATL||9|
|1.11||WR Courtland Sutton||DEN||9|
|1.12||WR Christian Kirk||ARI||8|
|2.01||WR Anthony Miller||CHI||6|
|2.02||TE Mike Gesicki||MIA||5|
|2.03||QB Baker Mayfield||CLE||5|
|2.04||QB Lamar Jackson||BAL||5|
|2.05||WR James Washington||PIT||5|
|2.06||WR Michael Gallup||DAL||4|
|2.07||WR Antonio Callaway||CLE||4|
|2.08||WR TreQuan Smith||NO||4|
|2.09||WR Dante Pettis||SF||4|
|2.10||RB Nyheim Hines||IND||3|
|2.11||TE Hayden Hurst||BAL||3|
|2.12||TE Dallas Goedert||PHI||3|
|3.01||TE Mark Andrews||BAL||3|
|3.02||QB Sam Darnold||NYJ||3|
|3.03||QB Josh Rosen||ARI||3|
|3.04||RB Kalen Ballage||MIA||3|
|3.05||RB Jordan Wilkins||IND||2|
|3.06||WR D.J. Chark||JAX||2|
|3.07||QB Josh Allen||BUF||2|
|3.08||TE Jordan Akins||HOU||2|
|3.09||WR JMon Moore||GB||1|
|3.10||WR Keke Coutee||HOU||1|
|3.11||WR DaeSean Hamilton||DEN||1|
|3.12||WR Braxton Berrios||NE||1|
Barkley, Then Who is 1.02?
Derrius Guice is the early consensus 1.02. I expect that to change quickly, especially in PPR leagues. I believe Rashaad Penny will become the consensus option at 1.02 within the next week. Part of that will be based upon what the teams said after the picks and the analysis that will come after everyone has fully digested the news.
Compare what Pete Carroll said about Rashaad Penny:
"Three-down back for us who can do everything," Seattle coach Pete Carroll said, describing a pick about whom Carroll was glowing with excitement. "He needs to work on his pass protection, but the ability to play him on all downs, that versatility is really big."
To what Jay Gruden said about Derrius Guice:
“He's more of a first-second-down banger. They (LSU) take him out on third down, occasionally. But I've seen him at his pro day catch the football. I think he can catch the football fine, but really, our role for him is quite easy to see. It’s first, second down. We have a third-down back. He's not going to play on third down anyway. Chris Thompson is going to be out there, and Chris will be in there a lot, so I think the rotation that we will come up with will be quite beneficial to all the backs. Keep them fresh, keep them healthy and then use their skill set accordingly.”
Dynasty Drafts and the Future of NFL Offenses
It can be easy at this time of year to get caught up in the minutiae of 40 times, scouting reports and all the other fun details that come with scouting rookie prospects for dynasty drafts. In doing so, we can forget to take some time to step back and try to analyze the incoming rookie class in terms of where they fit into the larger NFL trends. Here are the trends as I see them:
1. The passing game is the key to winning
Footballguys veteran Chase Stuart had a great article recently looking at long-term trends. It is worth reading in full, but the summary is that passing success is a major key to winning games while the importance of rushing success is shrinking. However, I will argue that the declining impact of the run game doesn’t lessen the value of running backs, it instead increases the importance of having an impact pass catcher as your running back on every down.
2. The best offenses are spreading the ball around, which decreases Wide Receiver Value.
Many have hypothesized in recent years that the importance of the passing game would lead to wide receivers being the biggest key to fantasy success. However, teams are using more spread formations (3 or more wide receivers) and the best offenses in 2017 were not reliant on any one wide receiver. The three highest scoring teams in 2017 were the St. Louis Rams, New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. None of them had a wide receiver catch more than 65 passes. The Patriots and Eagles were led in receptions by tight ends while the Rams were led by a running back.
This trend is especially pertinent when trying to value the incoming wide receiver class. D.J. Moore should be the top wide receiver in Carolina. But Christian McCaffrey may lead the team in receptions, Greg Olsen just signed a multi-year extension and 23-year old Devin Funchess should continue to get his fair share of looks as well. Brandin Cooks is a valuable NFL asset but only caught 65 passes last year. Similarly, Moore could be a successful pick for the Panthers and still not make a major fantasy impact with the Panthers spreading the ball around to multiple receivers and leaning heavily upon the running backs and tight ends in the passing game. Calvin Ridley (Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Devonta Freeman, et. al) has similar concerns.
3. The ideal “workhorse” back will continue to evolve.
Last year, the Top-3 PPR running backs averaged 77 catches each. The Top-9 backs averaged 65.1 receptions each and every single one of the nine had at least 53 catches. Those numbers could continue to climb and it shouldn’t be a surprise if in a few years the top-10 PPR backs average 70+ receptions.
As the game continues to evolve, teams with a three-down back who can create mismatches in the passing game have a real strategic advantage over offenses with early down backs and designated third-down backs.
Thus, the reason that Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel went ahead of arguably more talented pure runners like Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones and Derrius Guice. While the latter three backs have shown solid hands, none has been asked to split out wide and, from my view, none project as impact pass catchers in the NFL. As Dirk Koetter put it in talking about Ronald Jones:
“He’s not a guy in their offense, they didn’t move him around that much, he
ran just basic running back routes … but with one or two exceptions, that was across the board in this (running back) draft class.”
The two backs who did get opportunities to run more than just “basic running back routes” (which Koetter previously defined as slow screens and dump offs), were Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel. Thus, their valuation by NFL teams as 1st-round prospects. Both Penny and Michel look to have the receiving chops to catch 53+ passes, like each of the Top-9 scoring PPR backs did last season.
|8||QB||Patrick Mahomes II II||2||5||7|
|11||RB||Melvin Gordon III||5||17||22|
|16||RB||Mark Ingram II||3||6||9|
|23||RB||Duke Johnson Jr||1||4||5|
-The Dolphins waited until late in the 4th round, which is about the best you could reasonably hope for as a Kenyan Drake owner. Kalen Ballage has received some hype in recent years though and may make some Drake owners antsy. It’s worth testing the waters to see if you can buy Drake on the cheap.
-The Colts didn’t draft an early-round back as expected. Marlon Mack looks destined for a RBBC role. With the Colts waiting until Day 3 to select Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins, Mack at least has a chance to at lead the committee.
-The Browns selection of Nick Chubb torpedoed what little remaining value Carlos Hyde possessed.
-The Patriots selection of Sony Michel is a major blow to Rex Burkhead’s value.
-The Ravens didn’t take any running backs. Alex Collins will have the 2018 season to continue to make his case as the answer for Baltimore.
-The Eagles didn’t select any running backs. While it helps Jay Ajayi’s value, don’t sleep on Corey Clement. Clement was a key piece in the Eagles Super Bowl run and showed surprisingly strong receiving skills. He is a nice target as a “throw in” type in bigger trades.
|23||WR||Marvin Jones Jr||3||6||9|
|28||WR||Will Fuller V||2||5||7|
|40||WR||Paul Richardson Jr||2||3||5|
-The Packers waited until Day 3 before drafting a trio of wide receivers. Davante Adams looks poised to see a massive workload as Aaron Rodgers’ top target and could make the jump toward elite status.
-The Browns gave Jarvis Landry huge money on a long-term deal and if Baker Mayfield is the real deal, could continue to pile up WR1 seasons. The big monty to Landry and selection of Antonio Callaway doesn’t bode well for Corey Coleman’s prospects.
-The Eagles using their top pick on Dallas Goedert was interesting, but probably won’t have much of a negative impact on Zach Ertz.