Dynasty Trade Value Chart: July - Footballguys

Quantifying Long-Term Player Value for Dynasty Leagues

July is one of the calmest months on the dynasty calendar. Most rookie drafts have been completed and the volume of important news slows considerably. However, it is still important to try to fully digest the rookie buzz from OTAs, adjust valuations on players impacted by recent news, analyze which older veterans should be traded at a premium in this window, and decide which camp battles to focus extra attention on for purposes of finding waiver wire gems. 

The July dynasty trade value chart will focus on each of these four areas. Below the positional dynasty trade value charts you will find breakdowns of players in the following categories:

1. Recent Movers. A focus on players like Jameis Winston, Lamar Miller, Martavis Bryant, and Jordan Reed whose dynasty trade values have been impacted by recent news. 

2. Rookies with Early Buzz. While we don’t want to go overboard with hot takes based upon OTA reports, there can also be a danger of not adjusting quickly enough to new information regarding positive or negative feedback from early camp performances. We will focus on rookies like Lamar Jackson, Nyheim Hines, Derrius Guice, James Washington, and Jordan Akins

3. Veteran Trade Targets. The buildup to the start of the regular season is one of the two windows when the value of veteran players is at its peak (mid-season near the trade deadline is the other). As such, it is worth considering whether it is time to move players like Tom Brady, Devonta Freeman, Larry Fitzgerald, and Greg Olsen

4. Waiver Wire Watch List. Staying on top of waivers can feel impossible with news coming out daily from all 32 teams during training camp. A useful method to separate the signal through the noise is to focus your attention on the news seeping out on just a few team-specific position groups that are most likely to produce a fantasy-relevant option. We will discuss the specific competitions to watch most closely as camps open later this month.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade should be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, it is a trade offer worth strongly considering. 

Quarterbacks

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
4
10
14
2
4
9
13
3
4
8
12
4
4
8
12
5
3
6
9
6
1
7
8
7
2
5
7
8
2
5
7
9
2
4
6
10
2
4
6
11
1
5
6
12
1
5
6
13
0
6
6
14
3
2
5
15
2
3
5
16
2
3
5
17
1
4
5
18
1
4
5
19
1
4
5
20
1
3
4
21
1
3
4
22
1
3
4
23
0
4
4
24
0
4
4
25
0
4
4
26
1
2
3
27
1
1
2
28
1
1
2
29
1
1
2
30
1
1
2
31
0
2
2
32
1
0
1
33
1
0
1
34
1
0
1
35
0
1
1
36
0
0
0
37
A.J. McCarron
0
0
0
38
0
0
0
39
0
0
0
40
0
0
0
41
0
0
0

Movers

After a promising start to his career, Jameis Winston looked like a lock to be a 15-year starter. However, he simply has not matured. The off-field issues are indicating a pattern of awful choices and his on-field play remains inconsistent. His future looks much cloudier and he may start running out of chances. Winston’s falling dynasty value reflects that uncertainty.

Early Rookie Reports

The initial feedback on each of the top rookies has been generally positive. The one who seems to have made the biggest early impression is Lamar Jackson. Baltimore’s defensive leader C.J. Mosley said that once Jackson gets out of the pocket, “it's like watching a young Michael Vick.” The early buzz serves as a reminder that while Jackson may have a higher bust risk than some of the more highly-drafted passers, his fantasy ceiling is astronomical due to his rushing upside. Expect for his value to continue to creep up when he starts making highlight plays in August.

Veteran Trade Values

Ben Roethlisberger is a nice trade target. The early buzz on James Washington has been positive, which means Roethlisberger could easily have the best group of pass catchers in the NFL over the final few years of his career. 

On the other end of the spectrum, now may be the best time to move Tom Brady. While he continues to talk about playing until he is 45, the retirement speculation has begun in earnest and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see his play start to slip soon. 

Waiver Targets

The play of the young backups in high-powered offenses like New Orleans (Taysom Hill), New England (Danny Etling), and Pittsburgh (Mason Rudolph) will be worth following in the preseason. Pittsburgh and New Orleans are especially stacked with young weapons for whoever emerges as the successors to Roethlisberger and Drew Brees.

Running Backs

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
10
40
50
2
9
39
48
3
8
39
47
4
Le'Veon Bell
10
32
42
5
9
30
39
6
8
28
36
7
7
26
33
8
7
24
31
9
5
22
27
10
4
21
25
11
4
19
23
12
6
17
23
13
3
17
20
14
3
16
19
15
2
15
17
16
4
12
16
17
4
12
16
18
1
14
15
19
2
12
14
20
3
10
13
21
Ronald Jones
2
10
12
22
2
10
12
23
3
8
11
24
2
7
9
25
2
7
9
26
2
6
8
27
2
6
8
28
2
5
7
29
3
4
7
30
4
3
7
31
2
4
6
32
2
4
6
33
1
4
5
34
1
4
5
35
2
3
5
36
1
3
4
37
1
3
4
38
2
2
4
39
2
2
4
40
0
3
3
41
0
3
3
42
1
2
3
43
1
2
3
44
1
2
3
45
1
2
3
46
1
2
3
47
1
2
3
48
1
2
3
49
1
2
3
50
2
1
3
51
0
2
2
52
0
2
2
53
0
2
2
54
0
2
2
55
1
1
2
56
1
1
2
57
1
1
2
58
1
1
2
59
1
1
2
60
0
1
1

Movers

Houston’s offense with Deshaun Watson at the controls was the league’s best last season. Thus, the running back battle in Houston bears close watching. Recent reports on D’Onta Foreman’s recovery timeline from his 2018 ACL injury sound ominous. The door is wide open for Lamar Miller to dominate the touches in an exciting offense that should provide him with plenty of scoring chances. His value has risen in direct proportion to Foreman’s value decrease. 

Early Rookie Reports

Nyheim Hines has seen his value spike based upon his early buzz. He has impressed as a pass catcher and the Colts coaches have indicated a desire to get him involved. With Andrew Luck looking healthier and a Colts offense starved for playmakers, Hines has a huge opportunity to have instant fantasy value in PPR leagues. His emergence is a drag on the value of Marlon Mack

Derrius Guice has met or exceeded expectations in the early going. His fast start should ease the concerns slightly of anyone who was worried about his draft-day slide. 

Veteran Trade Values

Devonta Freeman is the type of relatively boring veteran who is tough to trade for reasonable value in the spring and summer. Everyone catches the rookie fever and is looking for the next big thing. Then July and August roll around and a player like Freeman is once again in high demand. Learning to take advantage of these predictable cycles is a key to improving your dynasty rosters. Freeman’s value also is beginning to creep up as dynasty owners are possibly seeing the light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the RBBC with Tevin Coleman. Atlanta beat writers believe Tevin Coleman will leave in free agency after the season. Freeman has obvious short-term value and perhaps a bit more medium-term upside than his dynasty trade market has reflected

Waiver Targets

The four-game suspension of Mark Ingram II makes the New Orleans Saints a team to keep a close eye on in August. The coaching staff has indicated they don’t want to drastically increase Alvin Kamara’s touches, which opens the door for whoever emerges as the second back (Terrance West, Trey Edmunds, and Jonathan Williams are amongst the competitors) to have fantasy relevance.

Wide Receivers

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
Odell Beckham
8
38
46
2
8
38
46
3
9
27
36
4
7
29
36
5
5
30
35
6
7
25
32
7
7
24
32
8
7
21
28
9
7
17
24
10
4
16
20
11
4
16
20
12
3
15
18
13
3
15
18
14
3
15
18
15
3
15
18
16
4
13
17
17
4
12
16
18
3
12
15
19
3
11
14
20
2
12
14
21
2
12
14
22
4
8
12
23
1
11
12
24
3
7
10
25
2
8
10
26
2
7
9
27
2
6
8
28
2
6
8
29
1
7
8
30
1
7
8
31
0
8
8
32
5
2
7
33
3
4
7
34
2
5
7
35
2
5
7
36
2
5
7
37
2
5
7
38
1
6
7
39
1
6
7
40
1
6
7
41
1
6
7
42
1
6
7
43
2
4
6
44
1
5
6
45
1
5
6
46
1
5
6
47
3
2
5
48
2
3
5
49
2
3
5
50
1
4
5
51
Donte Pettis
1
4
5
52
1
4
5
53
1
4
5
54
1
4
5
55
1
4
5
56
1
4
5
57
0
5
5
58
0
5
5
59
0
5
5
60
2
2
4
61
2
2
4
62
Cam Meredith
1
3
4
63
0
4
4
64
1
2
3
65
1
2
3
66
1
2
3
67
1
2
3
68
1
2
3
69
1
2
3
70
0
3
3
71
0
3
3
72
0
3
3
73
1
1
2
74
0
2
2
75
0
1
1
76
0
1
1

Movers

Martavis Bryant may or may not be facing another suspension. The NFL Network reported the league has identified an issue with Bryant, but that it is not clear if it will result in a delay in his availability if the issue can be simply remedied clerically or if it will result in a suspension. The uncertainty causes Bryant’s value to fall even further. 

Chris Hogan is going to open the season as the top wide receiver in New England. Hogan has a legitimate chance to open the season as a legitimate WR1 over the first four weeks while Julian Edelman is suspended. Hogan is going to remain a huge part of the New England offense even after Edelman returns though. Edelman is 32-years old and trying to return from a torn ACL and may not be the same player he was. With Brandin Cooks gone, Hogan should soak up most of the valuable deep targets Cooks left behind and also see plenty of volume on shorter passes as well. As the excitement builds about Hogan’s potential for huge games early in the season builds, expect his dynasty trade value to continue to creep up. 

Early Rookie Reports

Does any team identify wide receiver talent better than the Pittsburgh Steelers? James Washington may be the next in line, as reports indicate he has exceeded expectations early and is in line for a big role right out of the gate. 

Veteran Trade Values

Larry Fitzgerald could be poised for yet another productive season. However, if your team is not a prime contender, now is a great time to move him. The decline will come at some point. Likely soon. Let someone else take the risk if another owner is convinced Fitzgerald can be a WR1 in 2018 and is willing to pay a significant price for him. 

Waiver Targets

Three of the most talented quarterbacks in the league are going to be breaking in new starters at wide receiver, which creates immediate fantasy upside. 

In Green Bay, the spot across from Davante Adams is wide open. Geronimo Allison is arguably the frontrunner, but rookies J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown are also very much in the mix. 

In New England, the departures of Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola along with the suspension of Julian Edelman has created a major opportunity for someone to step into a large role alongside Chris Hogan. Kenny Britt, Jordan Matthews, Phillip Dorsett, Cordarrelle Patterson, Malcolm Mitchell, and rookie Braxton Berrios make up the large group of receivers jockeying to win the job as Week 1 starter. These are players who should be on your waiver wire speed dial if they start to make a move in camp. 

In Indianapolis, T.Y. Hilton is the only sure thing on the depth chart. Chester Rogers, Ryan Grant, Deon Cain, and Daurice Fountain are competing to start.

Tight Ends

Rank
Player
2018 Value
Future Value
Total Value
1
5
15
20
2
6
12
18
3
3
12
15
4
4
10
14
5
0
10
10
6
1
7
8
7
1
6
7
8
0
6
6
9
3
2
5
10
3
2
5
11
2
2
4
12
1
3
4
13
1
3
4
14
1
3
4
15
1
3
4
16
1
3
4
17
0
4
4
18
2
1
3
19
1
2
3
20
1
2
3
21
0
3
3
22
1
1
2
23
0
2
2
24
0
2
2
25
1
0
1
26
1
0
1
27
1
0
1
28
0
1
1
29
0
1
1
30
0
1
1
31
0
1
1

Movers

Jordan Reed is relatively healthy again and his NFL impact and fantasy value when on the field are undeniable. The pool of legitimate TE1s is shallow this season, so Reed’s value is drifting upwards. Everyone knows the injury risk with Reed, but many owners are also remembering the upside as well. 

Early Rookie Reports

Texans third-rounder Jordan Akins has reportedly been “as advertised.” The athletic pass catcher has flown way under the radar to date but could see his trade value shoot up if he continues to impress throughout training camp and opens the season as the starter in Houston. 

Veteran Trade Values

Greg Olsen signed another extension this offseason and shows no signs of slowing down in Carolina. It should be somewhat concerning that the Panthers now have three talented young pass catchers (Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Devin Funchess) who could each see 100 or more targets. However, Olsen has always been a favorite of Newton and should continue to crank out TE1 seasons. 

Waiver Targets

An extremely under the radar battle that is worth watching in deeper leagues is the one between Jordan Leggett and Chris Herndon of the Jets. New York finally has a franchise quarterback in place but lacks premium talent at the wide receiver position. Leggett and Herndon are both young and better receivers than blockers, which could give the winner of this camp battle fantasy relevance. It is a competition worth keeping an eye on with a waiver claim a possible priority for whoever shows better in August.