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Dynasty Strategy Roundtable: The Rising Rookies - Footballguys

The Footballguys staff weighs in on how to handle rising rookies before the NFL season

Late July and August are all about training camp and the NFL preseason. These are the first data points for incoming rookies to carve early career roles on their respective teams. For dynasty leagues, how are we to handle rising values from camp buzz, big preseason performances, and reporter buzz compared to the valuations during the NFL Draft process and earlier in the offseason?

Daniel Simpkins

I tend to evaluate each player on a case by case basis. Ameer Abdullah is an example of a player we should have sold while the rookie hype was there. I think we have to be careful not to do that with every player. For example, if you had sold Stefon Diggs in his rookie year, it’s unlikely you got what he is worth today. You probably cashed out for a mid-to-late first or early second round rookie pick. While you certainly profited, you would rather have Diggs today.

That being said, Anthony Miller and Nyheim Hines feel like players who are being vastly overrated and are clear sell-high candidates by my evaluation. For Miller, I admit that there is potential to be a better-than-average number two option in a Bears offense that is primed for rebound, but I don’t see it happening immediately and his current dynasty price suggests he will be the lead option in that passing game. If you can cash in for the equivalent of a mid-first this year or next year, I’m doing that deal all day. For Hines, the hype is just ridiculously out of control. We shouldn’t be paying a first-round rookie pick for this guy under any circumstance, yet I’m seeing it happen in several of my leagues. He’s a satellite back who fumbles much more than I would like. His size and skills are such that he will have limited deployment, much like Austin Eckler or Tarik Cohen. He’ll never be a primary option, so paying the premium that you might pay for a back like that for Hines is a losing proposition. If you are on the selling end, I would definitely look for any first rounder and perhaps even an early second if you can’t find anyone to bite on that.

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