Dynasty Rankings Movement: Week 10 - Footballguys

Footballguys staff and the reasoning behind the movement

Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.

Quarterbacks

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Mitchell Trubisky - While Trubisky has been a decent fantasy option this season, it is largely based on his rushing production more than passing prowess or utility in fantasy lineups. Trubisky has had a start rate on myfantasyleague.com of greater than 50% in just one game this season, which was not one of Trubisky's three big fantasy performances, likely on fantasy teams' benches. Trubisky is very much a work in progress as an intermediate passer and the Bears offense has disappointed from the 'Rams 2017 breakout' moniker placed upon them in the offseason as the rising offense of 2018.

Cam Newton - I am bullish on Cam Newton going forward. He sagged mid-career largely due to declining rushing production without growth as a passer. Now with Norv Turner and a host of weapons around him to make life easier with after-the-catch abilities, Newton has arguably the easiest job of his career to put up high-level fantasy numbers.

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Mitchell Trubisky - I'm not completely sold on Trubisky long-term, but he's been prolific of late and the offense is young and talent-laden. He deserves a spot in the Top 20, at a minimum.

Baker Mayfield - Mayfield is going to get a long run in Cleveland to prove himself, and his dynasty stock took a leap forward when the team fired Hue Jackson and Todd Haley. This season is a question mark, but the team should be in better hands in 2019 as a new coaching staff takes control.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - It's hard to bet on him long term given his age and journeyman pedigree, but he's back under center in Tampa Bay and has likely secured himself another few seasons of starting for a team in need of a veteran while transitioning to a younger roster.

Chad Kelly - Kelly was another bad Case Keenum game away from finally getting his shot, and his talent level is high enough that it could've totally changed his career trajectory. Unfortunately, a horribly times off-field incident led to his release and his hopes for an NFL future in the process.

Jameis Winston - The Buccaneers went back to him at the first sign of struggle for Ryan Fitzpatrick, and then Winston proceeded to lead the league in turnovers in a month span. Once considered a cornerstone franchise quarterback, Winston could very well be looking for a new home as a backup in 2019.

Alex Smith - Smith remains in the Top 20 but drops below a handful of younger quarterbacks. He's regressed back to the dink-and-dunk, take-no-chances quarterback we knew before last year's breakout in Kansas City.

Running Back

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Marlon Mack - I was way too low on Mack. The Colts offensive line has improved by leaps and bounds, and Mack has looked like a three-down workhorse since his return, while the other young running backs on the roster appear one dimensional or irrelevant. Mack's injury history remains a concern, but he deserves a big jump in the rankings given the sparse talent pool at the position.

Tarik Cohen - Cohen was a hot commodity in the preseason but I wasn't buying into the hype. For a few weeks my skepticism looked prescient, but as Matt Nagy's system has rounded into form, so too has Cohen's role.

Ito Smith - Smith hasn't done enough to prove he's the long-term answer as the Falcons power back, but he's improved with each passing week and appears to thrive when given a heavier workload. With Devonta Freeman's injury history mounting and Tevin Coleman's likely free agent departure, Smith is an intriguing dynasty lottery ticket.

Carlos Hyde - Hyde didn't last a half season in Cleveland, and how finds himself as the stopgap in Jacksonville while Leonard Fournette gets healthy. At best, Hyde will become a committee back with Fournette and T.J. Yeldon. At worst, he's relegated to third-string duties.

Derrick Henry - The failure of the Titans offense calls into question the dynasty value of everyone on the roster, Henry included. He's been ineffective regardless of game script, and the odds the Titans find their workhorse in the draft next year, at Henry (and Dion Lewis') expense, rise with each week.

Rashaad Penny - The most disappointing player at the position, as he had a clear path to an instant workhorse role. The Seahawks have made good on their promise to re-commit to the ground game, but Penny has no part in the process. He's lost the role to two replacement level guys in Chris Carson and Mike Davis. Penny's future isn't completely doomed, but he needs a complete makeover in the 2019 preseason to become a dynasty asset again.

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Kenyan Drake - Drake continues to impress with the eye test this season. Frank Gore collects empty carries outside of the red zone, but Drake is seeing the optimized targets and higher-leverage looks for the Miami backfield. Drake is a suped-up version of T.J. Yeldon in my eyes, at his best in space and as a receiver with soft hands. Drake may never be a workhorse back, but he has proven himself to be a PPR dynamo at a minimum with a 1B or better outlook on future depth charts

Phillip Lindsay - Lindsay continues to be a sell or avoid recommendation on my board. While adept as a receiver and space player, Lindsay struggles inside and will rarely see overt goal line cracks over his career at his size and skill-set combination. Lindsay was valued as a future Round 1 rookie pick earlier in the season, since sagging from that peak, but still worth shopping for a future first or a package of a Round 2 pick and another running back.

Wide Receiver

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Michael Crabtree - I touted Crabtree as a solid bridge wide receiver producer in the offseason, but the addition of a number of Baltimore pass-catchers has made Crabtree's impact almost non-existent through nine weeks with only one game of more than 13 PPR points, which was his lowest start rate game of the season at 43%. As a result, Crabtree is hovering around WR40 in my True Impact wide receiver rankings, where he had top-20 upside to open the season.

Courtland Sutton - Sutton's strong start to his rookie season was part of the reason Demaryius Thomas was expendable by Denver. Rookie receivers are rarely fantasy viable in the first half of the season, but Sutton has produced eight or more PPR points in each of the last six games as he flashes most weeks with a downfield play, including his past game. With Thomas gone, Sutton (and Jeff Heuerman) will be the biggest benefactors with a fantasy uptick for lineup consideration down the stretch.

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Taylor Gabriel - Gabriel isn't as valuable as Anthony Miller, but his rise in the rankings is more pronounced. Gabriel is healthy and fitting in well with Matt Nagy's system, while high-priced free agent Allen Robinson has been injured and ineffective.

Tyler Lockett - Lockett has been the main playmaker in the Seattle passing game, finally living up to the hype. He's never going to be a fantasy No. 1, but he can provide years of WR2 value and yet his price remains discounted.

Courtland Sutton - An obvious upgrade as the opportunity now matches the talent. Denver traded Demaryius Thomas to Houston and Sutton ascends into the starting role; a spot he'll occupy for years to come.

Robert Woods - I projected Woods as the odd-man out in the Rams three-headed receiving corps, but he's disproven my skepticism. All three receivers (Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Brandin Cooks) are viable fantasy assets.

Allen Robinson - Robinson's torn ACL in Jacksonville should have been a distant memory at this point, but he continues to struggle to reclaim the explosiveness we saw a few seasons ago. The Bears offense is rounding into shape, without him, and that bodes ill for Robinson in 2018 and beyond.

Nelson Agholor - Agholor failed to match last year's breakout production in spite of Alshon Jeffery missing time early in the season. The Eagles have since acquired Golden Tate and re-signed Jordan Matthews, and that leaves Agholor as the fourth or fifth option in the target hierarchy.

A.J. Green - Green falls out of the Top 10 with his latest toe injury combined with the emergence of Tyler Boy. He's got good years ahead, but the days of valuing him as a top-tier fantasy No. 1 have come and gone.

Mike Williams - Williams falls out of the Top 30 because the Chargers are winning games without a commensurate increase in Williams' role. Tyrell Williams has been more productive, which is problematic if you're valuing Mike Williams as a potential multi-year No. 1 starter down the road.

Tight End

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Hunter Henry - Henry's rise is more about the abysmal status of the tight end position than anything he's done. We know he can produce at a level similar to Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz when healthy, and Henry is recovering well from his preseason ACL tear. At worst, he'll be 100% in 2019 and should be a consensus fantasy TE1 with the potential to finish atop the position rankings.

Chris Herndon - It's hard to go all-in with Herndon given the sorry state of the Jets passing game, but he has emerged from a crowded tight end corps to become one of Sam Darnold's trusted red zone targets.

George Kittle - Kittle shook off injury worries and has impressively dominated in spite of a carousel of quarterbacks. He's the lone bright spot in an otherwise disappointing 49ers offense.

Kyle Rudolph - Rudolph was atop the tier of fantasy tight ends that lacked the upside of Gronkowski and Kelce but did enough to finish in the top 10 most seasons. He appears to be the odd man out as the offense has transitioned to Kirk Cousins and is now part of a huge tier of tight end streamers.

Mike Gesicki - Preseason hype hasn't materialized into anything enticing this year. He's an afterthought in almost every game script.

Jordan Reed - Reed is being outplayed by Vernon Davis most of the time. His days as a difference-making fantasy asset are likely over.

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Gerald Everett - Everett is one of my favorite talent stashes at the tight end position. While Tyler Higbee is seeing more snaps, he is more of a blocker than receiver. Everett, on the other hand, is oozing with receiving upside on a lethal Rams offense. Everett is flashing with a play or two more weeks than not and a Higbee injury would propel Everett into streaming consideration this season. If not, Everett will be one of the upside projections at the position for 2019.

Demetrius Harris - I rarely look at backup tight ends with much interest outside of deeper two-tight-end formats. However, Harris is one of the few to possess either talent in an optimal offense to warrant such consideration. Harris is a Travis Kelce injury away from weekly top-12 production and is worth a roster spot in all but the most-shallow dynasty formats to close the season in case Travis Kelce misses time.