Projecting the Pros on DraftKings: Week 17

A guide to playing roster percentages like the pros.

NOTE: The pro projections below are first posted on Thursday, then updated on Saturday afternoon. On Thursday, commentary will be limited to early impressions. A more-detailed discussion of specific players will be added on Saturday afternoon.

Welcome back for Week 16 of Footballguys' new feature that uses a statistical model to project the roster percentages of "professional" tournament players on Draftkings. If you're curious about the full methodological details of the model, click here. The most important detail to keep in mind, however, is that the "professionals" in question were identified using a clustering algorithm and can be characterized by the following statement: Compared to the rest of the population, these 205 pros play more, they win more, and they do both consistently.


Below is the table for quarterbacks. In this and all subsequent tables, "Overall" is Steve Buzzard's projection of roster percentage. "Pros" is the model's projection of roster percentage for Draftkings pros only.

Quarterback Team Salary Overall Pros
Patrick Mahomes II II KC 7100 21.7% 24.4%
Aaron Rodgers GB 6300 10.4% 8.9%
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 7000 12.3% 8.5%
Jared Goff LAR 6200 7.3% 5.7%
Matt Ryan ATL 6300 5.7% 4.5%
Deshaun Watson HOU 6600 4.2% 3.8%
Josh Allen BUF 6000 4.0% 3.7%
Jameis Winston TB 6100 3.0% 3.6%
Lamar Jackson BAL 5600 3.6% 3.6%
Nick Foles PHI 5900 4.3% 3.2%
Sam Darnold NYJ 5200 2.9% 2.9%
Tom Brady NE 6000 2.9% 2.9%
Kyle Allen CAR 4000 2.4% 2.8%
Eli Manning NYG 4900 1.6% 2.6%
Philip Rivers LAC 6400 2.5% 2.5%
Kirk Cousins MIN 5500 1.9% 2.5%
Case Keenum DEN 4800 0.9% 2.4%
Teddy Bridgewater NO 5300 3.1% 2.4%
Derek Carr OAK 5100 1.0% 2.2%
Baker Mayfield CLE 5300 0.7% 2.0%
Josh Johnson WAS 4800 1.1% 2.0%
Blake Bortles JAX 4400 2.1% 1.9%

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