Projecting the Pros on DraftKings: Week 13

A guide to playing roster percentages like the pros.

NOTE: The pro projections below are first posted on Thursday, then updated on Saturday afternoon. On Thursday, commentary will be limited to early impressions. A more-detailed discussion of specific players will be added on Saturday afternoon.

Welcome back for Week 13 of Footballguys' new feature that uses a statistical model to project the roster percentages of "professional" tournament players on Draftkings. If you're curious about the full methodological details of the model, click here. The most important detail to keep in mind, however, is that the "professionals" in question were identified using a clustering algorithm and can be characterized by the following statement: Compared to the rest of the population, these 205 pros play more, they win more, and they do both consistently.


Below is the table for quarterbacks. In this and all subsequent tables, "Overall" is Steve Buzzard's projection of roster percentage. "Pros" is the model's projection of roster percentage for Draftkings pros only.

Quarterback Team Salary Overall Pros
Cam Newton CAR 6600 15.4% 16.8%
Jameis Winston TB 6000 11.7% 13.6%
Patrick Mahomes II KC 7600 14.7% 11.3%
Jared Goff LAR 6400 10.0% 10.8%
Kirk Cousins MIN 5500 4.7% 5.1%
Andrew Luck IND 5800 5.7% 4.1%
Matt Ryan ATL 5600 2.8% 3.8%
Aaron Rodgers GB 6200 4.5% 3.8%
Lamar Jackson BAL 5900 5.1% 3.3%
Deshaun Watson HOU 6100 4.1% 3.1%
Tom Brady NE 5800 1.9% 3.0%
Marcus Mariota TEN 5200 2.3% 2.9%
Russell Wilson SEA 6300 3.8% 2.8%
Matthew Stafford DET 5400 2.7% 2.7%
Case Keenum DEN 5200 2.0% 2.6%
Chase Daniel CHI 4800 1.1% 2.6%
Baker Mayfield CLE 5600 1.8% 1.7%
Eli Manning NYG 5000 1.2% 1.6%
Josh Allen BUF 5300 1.2% 1.4%
Derek Carr OAK 5000 1.4% 1.0%

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