NOTE: The pro projections below are first posted on Thursday, then updated on Saturday afternoon. On Thursday, commentary will be limited to early impressions. A more-detailed discussion of specific players will be added on Saturday afternoon.
Welcome back for Week 6 of Footballguys' new feature that uses a statistical model to project the roster percentages of "professional" tournament players on Draftkings. If you're curious about the full methodological details of the model, click here. The most important detail to keep in mind, however, is that the "professionals" in question were identified using a clustering algorithm and can be characterized by the following statement: Compared to the rest of the population, these 205 pros play more, they win more, and they do both consistently.
Below is the table for quarterbacks. In this and all subsequent tables, "Overall" is Steve Buzzard's projection of roster percentage. "Pros" is the model's projection of roster percentage for Draftkings pros only.
This is the year of the broken record. No, not Drew Brees' feat on Monday night; it's the Falcons game being the undisputed chalk every week. So it's no surprise, then, that Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston are in the Top 3. What may be surprising, is that Winston is the one of those two that pros are likely to roster more frequently than the overall public. Another interesting thing to note from the table is that both quarterbacks in the Bengals-Steelers game are projected as "fades."
Below is the table for running backs:
Their matchups aren't favorable, but both Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson are at their lowest salaries of the season in Week 6. Also helping matters is that their wide receiver teammates are projected to be among the least rostered on the slate.
Below is the table for wide receivers:
Julio Jones and Keke Coutee are the early favorites among pros. For Jones, this is due to Tampa Bay being projected to appear in less than one percent of lineups. For Coutee, it's because of his position-leading likelihood of achieving 4x value.
Below is the table for tight ends:
Austin Hooper presents a perfect opportunity to get a cheap piece of that Falcons-Buccaneers game. It's a favorable matchup as well, what with Tampa Bay surrendering the most Draftkings points to opposing tight ends.
Below is the table for defenses:
The Ravens seem to be the choice at defense this week. They've given up over 14 points just once so far this season, while the Titans have scored over 20 just once. Baltimore is also one of five defenses on the Sunday Main slate that will be facing a quarterback projected to be rostered in less than one percent of GPP lineups.