Footballguys Staff Six-Person DRAFT Mock: Week 13

Evaluating a six-person DRAFT mock for Week 13. Each participant answers questions about their strategy and picks. 

Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 13 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.

OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT

Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2

THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 13 DRAFT:

1.01 Keith Roberts
1.02 Dan Hindery
1.03 James Brimacombe
1.04 Will Grant
1.05 Justin Howe
1.06 Sean Settle

DRAFT RESULTS

DRAFT EVALUATION

keith roberts - SLOT 1

Overview - Keith has the highest projected score (91.9) according to the Week 13 Lineup Optimizer projections. His first three picks are solid with Todd Gurley, Davante Adams, and Adam Thielen. He followed it up with Matt Breida (11th ranked running back this week) at Seattle, which is not a favorable matchup, and Jameis Winston who will host Carolina who has lost three straight. Outside of the Breida pick, I like this team's chances of putting up decent points this week. Winston has had trouble with Carolina in the past going 2-4 with 5 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He'll need to reverse that trend for Keith to have a chance this week. Carolina has allowed 52, 20 and 30 points in their last three games, so the turnaround for Winston may be in the cards.

Keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
The top pick this week was not as easy as it has typically been with such high potential players in great spots to select from. As much as I wanted to jump on some of these other options at running back, I had to stick with the bread and butter pick of Todd Gurley. With the crop at running back dropping off after the first 8 or so picks, I decided to take back-to-back wide receivers in hopes to capitalize on the top end of that position. While Davante Adams may have a tough matchup with Patrick Peterson, he has been one of the most matchup-proof receivers of the season with consistent production in every game. Adam Thielen alike has one of the highest ceilings in the game, so I was happy to land him. I rounded this out with a high potential quarterback pick along with a one-man show running back with Matt Breida owning that 49er’s backfield.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
With so many high potential options going in the first round, I will need Todd Gurley to truly live up to his first round value to compete with these other running backs. Gurley let most fantasy owners down in one of the biggest spots of the season against the Chiefs, and he is also dealing with an ankle injury that seems to have lingered beyond the bye. I may have a high chance at looking back on this pick with disgust, but if Gurley can suit up, he is in a great spot against a Lions defense that has allowed some massive games to running backs this season.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I am not thrilled with it, but I was happy to land Matt Breida as the 11th running back off the board. Breida has been an iron man this season to push through his many injuries, but he finally appeared healthy in last week’s game and was given a massive opportunity with the healthy scratch of Alfred Morris. This 49ers offense basically has nobody else to turn to in the backfield, and with the poor play of Nick Mullens, they should continue to feed Breida with his fair share of both carries and targets in the passing game.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I would have taken a shot on Kenny Golladay as my one more player this week. Golladay has proven to be an integral part of this Lions offense in his second year with the team. He has amassed at least 78 receiving yards in three straight games with a couple of touchdowns to show for it. With Marvin Jones Jr officially out for the rest of the year, Golladay’s opportunity to shine can only increase as he will be the unquestioned WR1. With a juicy matchup against the struggling Marcus Peters, Golladay could haul in multiple deep balls in this one--especially with the Lions expected to throw early and often.

DAN HINDERY - SLOT 2

Overview: Dan draft solid players with good or excellent matchups. His all-around team will be a tough out. His first two picks of Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill are excellent values, but when you look at the matchups (at Tampa Bay) and (at Oakland), they look even better. Both are projected as the #1 player at their position this week. Austin Ekeler is taking over duties for the injured Melvin Gordon III and while the volume will likely be similar, Ekeler will be lucky to get 60-70% of Gordon's regular fantasy production. Ekeler is more of a pass-catching back who can run efficiently, while Gordon excels in both categories. A score from him will go a long way to helping Dan's team reach the pinnacle this week. His other picks - Brandin Cooks and Deshaun Watson. Cooks is solid in his own right simply being on the Rams offense. He'll have a matchup against Detroit and potentially Darius Slay. Watson will host the Browns and is the 7th ranked quarterback this week in a contest with six quarterbacks. There's some value lost there, but Watson is clearly capable of having a big game any given week. You could argue that Watson will be the determining factor of success for Dan.

DAN ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Once, I saw I drew 1.02, I knew I’d get either Todd Gurley or Christian McCaffrey and have a star running back in a plus matchup to build my roster around. After that, I just wanted to get as many pieces of the elite offenses as I could. To that end, I was targeting either Tyreek Hill or Patrick Mahomes II in the second round. With a ridiculous 35-point team total, there should be plenty of fantasy point to go around. I also wanted to have some piece of the Rams offense and had my choice or Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods at 4.05. I went Cooks but would have been perfectly happy with Woods as well.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
It’s definitely Tyreek Hill, one of the most boom or bust fantasy options every week. He has scored under 11 fantasy points in 5-of-11 games this season. If he doesn’t catch a long touchdown, he is probably not going to help me this week. However, the risk is worth it because no wide receiver has more upside than Hill. He has had weeks of 38.8, 38.5, 35.7, and 29.2 points. Hill makes a great target in 6-Team leagues because there is a more than 1-in-6 chance he can win you a week.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I like landing Austin Ekeler in the third round. If Melvin Gordon III was healthy and starting, he would have been a slam-dunk first-round pick. Ekeler’s workload projects to be at least as heavy as Gordon’s typically is and he is a talented, explosive back. He is also going to rack up plenty of fantasy points as a pass catcher. Most of Ekeler’s 10 receptions last week came after Melvin Gordon III left with an injury.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
Robert Woods was one of my top WR2 targets and it was almost like flipping a coin deciding between him and Brandin Cooks with my pick at 4.05. Both Woods and Cooks are fantasy WR1s this season and are even stronger plays with Cooper Kupp out. Woods saw four red zone targets last week and has a very solid touchdown expectation against the Lions this week.

james brimacombe - SLOT 3

Overview - James has benefited from selecting two Chiefs in his first two picks - Kareem Hunt in round one and Patrick Mahomes II in round two. Mahomes projects a massive 24.4 points this week, which might be the highest projection at quarterback this year, or at least one of the highest. James has bottled up the Chiefs offense with those two picks. No matter what the game script dictates, James has it covered. He has Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, and Joe Mixon to round out his draft. Allen against Pittsburgh should yield good results in a game that projects to reach 51.5 points. The Carolina at Tampa Bay game is 55 points, which favors Mike Evans. If Joe Mixon (vs Denver) can continue to put up strong numbers as a rusher and receiver, James may find himself at the top looking down at the end of the week.

james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I went into the draft with no strategy at all. I put in my pre-draft rankings and decided to just wing it and see who fell to me as the draft went on. I was happy to get either Gurley, Barkley, McCaffrey, or Hunt so getting the later was a solid start to my draft. My second pick was a surprise to me even as I went with Patrick Mahomes II. The reason for this is that I feel that the wide receiver position, this week has a bunch of players that are very similar with no one really standing out above the other. I was content to land on both Keenan Allen and Mike Evans as they are both high volume receivers and come at a bit of a discount compared to some of the other names.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
I think the combo of Hunt and Mahomes will make or break me as it is not always the wisest of decisions to have a QB with his RB. The good thing about this combo is that Hunt has shown that he can be productive as a receiver out of the backfield. Hunt has 14 touchdowns on the season and seven of those happen to be receiving touchdowns as he has six in his last six games.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I continue to be a sucker for Keenan Allen in these drafts and now with Melvin Gordon III banged up I feel like Allen has the potential to get more involved and finally become a touchdown threat. Allen has four touchdowns on the season and three of those are over the last three games. I feel Allen is being overlooked and should be right up there with Julio Jones, Davante Adams, Adam Theilen, and DeAndre Hopkins this week.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
I wanted a piece of the Rams offense this week and going with Robert Woods makes a lot of sense. Woods always seems to be available in the last round of these 6-man drafts each and every week and the fact that he has 1015 total yards and four touchdowns on the season makes it seem silly that he goes undrafted. With Cooper Kupp now out of the picture, more targets are coming his way as he saw 11 against the Chiefs two weeks ago.

will grant - SLOT 4

Overview - Will's first three picks are solid with Aaron Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and Nick Chubb. And then he followed them up with Cam Newton and Zach Ertz. Will has the #2 overall projected team this week and he has no weaknesses, especially if each player plays as they have in their last few games. Jones projects as the #3 running back this week in a home game against Arizona, which is an excellent matchup. Will was sharp to make Jones his first-round pick. Hopkins vs. Cleveland is not the best matchup but the Texans are projected to score 27 team points. You can put a decent-sized bet that Hopkins will have some say in that. Nick Chubb (in the same game) may have the hardest matchup this week on the road at Houston. The Browns are only projected to score 21 team points this week. Could Chubb be a contributor to that total? Absolutely. he may not have a 100-yard performance, but a score would go a long way to helping Will's team. Cam Newton at Tampa Bay is a great matchup. Carolina projects to score 29.5 points. Newton has been playing well lately and the matchup is favorable. Zach Ertz will host Washington this week in a pivotal divisional matchup. He has been a big part of the Eagles offense all season. That should not change this week. Will has the potential to hang with the best teams. Only time will tell if he can take home the win.

will grant ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Having nearly a full slate this week with some BIG Vegas lines, gives you a chance to score a good running back, even with a pick in the second half of round one. I would have preferred Kareem Hunt or Christian McCaffery but was very happy to land Aaron Jones against a soft Arizona defense. Jones looks like a true feature back and he can run and catch the ball well. The Packers are in trouble and need a win this week to keep their playoff hopes alive. I think Jones has a big week.

DeAndre Hopkins is on a short week, but he’s also facing Cleveland in a game that the Texans need to win. I have Hopkins as one of my top rated receivers this week and after seeing all the running backs fly off the board in the 1st and 2nd round, going with a receiver at 2.03 seemed like a great pick and landing Hopkins gives me one of the best.

Patrick Mahomes II is the top quarterback to have this week, but you’re going to have to spend a high draft pick to secure him. I was happy to see him go in the second round after I picked, leaving me with no question about ‘should I have taken him?’ – I just can’t take a quarterback in the second round. So I went back to my ‘4th round quarterrback’ plan and was happy to land Cam Newton in the 4th. Newton has two consecutive 25+ point games so far, and against a soft Tampa Bay defense, I expect him to notch his third. Very happy to land him in the 4th as the second quarterback off the board.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Nick Chubb has a rushing touchdown in each of his last three games. The Browns are not the doormat of the league any more, and they are going to give the Texans (who are playing on a short week) a touch match this week. The Texans may have held the Titans in check last Monday Night, but they have given up five touchdowns to running backs over the three previous weeks. The Texans defense is showing vulnerability to the run and Chubb is showing his ability to post bigger and better numbers than he did earlier this year. If he has a good game, I think I will do pretty well.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Since the second week of the season, Cam Newton has had two or more passing touchdowns per game. He hasn’t had a rushing touchdown since week eight (maybe he is due?), but he still has four for the season. Against Tampa Bay this week, Newton should have a big game. After Mahomes went in the second round, I was very happy to get Cam Newton and all of his upside in the 4th round was big value to me and I’m happy to have him this week.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
Tennessee has one of the toughest running defenses in the league, and Lamar Miller hung 162 rushing yards on them on Monday night. This week, Miller faces the Browns who aren’t nearly as tough as the Titans. The Texans are in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs, and will lean heavily on Miller this week if they get out to an early lead. I like Miller’s chances for a big game, and I’d happily add him to my roster as my 6th round pick.

justin howe - SLOT 5

Overview - There's a lot of well-drafted teams this week. Justin's team deserves mention with strengths at every position. Saquon Barkley has been a league-winner this year. Landing him late in the first round is a shock. Yes, the matchup at Chicago isn't the best, but Barkley has shown success in tough situations before. Julio Jones has come on strong lately and represents good value in the second round. Justin's next picks included Travis Kelce, Phillip Lindsay and Jared Goff. Kelce at Oakland is a great matchup that figures to put up a lot of points. Kansas City themselves projects 35 points this week. Phillip Lindsay has been a bright spot this year for Denver and has helped many fantasy teams. The matchup at Cincinnati is definitely one to exploit. The Bengals have struggled all season, allowing running backs to score at least once in every game but Week 1. Goff and the Rams project 32.5 points against Detroit this week. Getting him in the last round may be the steal of the draft if the Rams can put up video game numbers against the Lions in Detroit. Justin has a strong team capable of winning it all.

justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This was a strict best-player-available draft. The running back stable is balanced, with a bevy of intriguing names in good spots. Barkley was a no-brainer in Round 1, but in Round 2 I realized I'd have a shot at someone like Lindsay, Chubb, or Mixon down the road, so I leaped at a pair of upside receivers next. I almost always save quarterback for last, and I knew Keith and James still needed runners, so I took the most efficient guy left (Lindsay and his 6.1 yards per touch) in Round 4. All in all, I like builds like this even when I can't start with two 25-touchbacks. There's upside just splattered all over this roster.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Shockingly, it's Jones. I love his upside, obviously, but I waffled hard on him vs. Tyreek Hill as the top wideout off the board. The Ravens pass defense hasn't been tested much of late, but it's been stingy on a per-attempt basis against the likes of New Orleans, Carolina, and Pittsburgh. Their top wideouts (Michael Thomas, Devin Funchess, and Antonio Brown) combined for just 138 yards on 23 targets as the Ravens' awesome cornerbacks funnel the ball inside. Jones could scorch them down the field as he's done almost all year, or he could find himself stymied into a 5-catch, 60-yard type of day that would win me nothing.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I think my roster wound up pretty much on par with ADP, so I'm not sure I extracted much value this week. I did like grabbing Kelce after all of the top wideout names were gone. (Yes, Odell Beckham Jr was still on the board, but he's in a bad spot right now. Eli Manning can't get the ball downfield, and Vic Fangio's defense is notorious for selling out to shut down No. 1 outside receivers.) Kelce represents the Chiefs' second-best weapon through the air, and the Raiders have hemorrhaged big plays to tight ends. Game script doesn't scare me off, either: these Chiefs don't look concerned with taking their foot off the gas with strong leads.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
Like James, I think it'd be nice to have a Ram stacked with my Goff pick. Woods was there for the taking, and I could've really maximized my quarterback selection there. Still, the answer is Golladay. He'll dominate targets in a game the Lions will almost certainly trail all day, and he'll avoid the Rams' top cornerback, slot man Nickell Robey-Coleman. Golladay could easily rack up 12 targets, and his big-play awesomeness could turn them into something special.

SEAN SETTLE - SLOT 6

Overview: Sean drafted two running backs at the 1-2 turn with David Johnson and James Conner. Both have shown they can dominate their team's offense, especially if the game script dictates it. In addition to those two backs he also managed to draft Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr at the 3-4 turn and then Ben Roethlisberger at the end to pair with Brown and Conner giving him three Steelers. Arizona has struggled to put up points on a consistent basis, scoring over 20 points only twice this season. This week they are projected to score only 15 points against Green Bay. Those odds don't bode well for David Johnson, so Sean will need him to be a key piece of the offense with a score. this team hinges on the success of the Steelers offense against the Chargers defense. if Pittsburgh has a down game, Sean's chances of hitting pay dirt this week will be dashed. Conversely, if Pittsburgh performs well, Sean's team will benefit with a chance to finish on top this week.

SEAN ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
After watching every running back I wanted fall off the board before I got to pick, I had to throw out my draft strategy this week. I felt confident in David Johnson after Arizona has shown a willingness to use him, even when trailing. Then things got difficult. There was a steep drop off at running back from there and I needed to make a move. James Conner had a letdown game against the Broncos, but I do not expect that to happen again. Everything went wrong for the Steelers in Denver, but I expect that to change this week. I went with the super stack of Conner, Brown, and Roethlisberger. That is normally more eggs in one basket than I would like but getting Brown in the 4th round seemed like a steal. The Giants are going to have a tough time against the Bears, but Beckham is also a player I could not pass on in the 3rd round. I went with star power and betting on a team that will be playing angry this week for my team.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
It is not one player that is going to make me this week, but instead an entire offense. The Steelers moved the ball at will against the Broncos last week but could not cap drives with touchdowns. They turned the ball over and gave that game away. This week I am banking on a rebound at home against the Chargers. I expect a heavy dose of Conner and Brown this week after the team featured JuJu almost exclusively. I need the Steelers to turn it around at home to have a chance this week.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Antonio Brown in the 4th round is unheard of. His projections have slipped a bit with the Steelers featuring JuJu in the offense, but he is still the same player he has always been. He is an explosive receiver that the defense has to pay attention to. Brown normally goes in the top 2 rounds of a DRAFT and I could not believe he was still there in the 4th. Hopefully stacking him with Roethlisberger will pay off this week.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
If I could take one more guy it would have to be Gronkowski. The Patriots play the Vikings this week and that is why we did not see any of their players taken, but Gronk is back and healthy. He looked great last week against the Jets and has a lot of incentives in his contract to play towards for the rest of the season. The Vikings lost Andrew Sendejo to injury and are thin at linebacker. Look for Gronk to have a good week against one of the better defenses in football.

PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER

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