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Footballguys Staff Six-Person DRAFT Mock: Week 10

Evaluating a six-person DRAFT mock for Week 10. Each participant answers questions about their strategy and picks. 

Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 10 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.

OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT

Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2

THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 10 DRAFT:

1.01 James Brimacombe
1.02 Justin Howe
1.03 Will Grant
1.04 Dan Hindery
1.05 Sean Settle
1.06 Keith Roberts

DRAFT RESULTS

DRAFT EVALUATION

Dan hindery - SLOT 1

Overview - Dan won the first pick overall and of course selected Todd Gurley with his first-round pick. The next two picks are vital from the one-slot. Dan decided to go with two receivers in Keenan Allen and Odell Beckham Jr Jr. He could've taken his second running back at the 2-3 turn, but he elected to secure his receivers, which a decision that I agree with. Even if Ezekiel Elliott was there, I would've recommended a WR-WR turn. With bye weeks and powerful Thursday slate not included in this draft, the options at running back were scarce. In the 4-5 turn, Dan landed Drew Brees (at CIN) and Marlon Mack with his last pick. Mack is coming off a bye and two straight 100-yard rushing games with a touchdown. The draw against Jacksonville isn't favorable, but lately, the Jags defense has been beatable. Mack projects as the 13th ranked running back this week, so the value isn't super, but if he can string together another decent game with a score, he will be worth the investment.

dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This is the first time in a long time I’ve had the 1.01. Getting to start with Todd Gurley is a big boost to my chances and an easy choice. My top seven players were running backs. None of them made it to 2.06, so it was an easy choice to grab a pair of top wide receivers at the 2/3 turn. The position isn’t quite as deep this week, so locking in Keenan Allen and Odell Beckham Jr felt good. I like this team on paper better than most of my teams in recent weeks. Things are definitely easier drafting at the top of the 1st and 3rd rounds.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Drew Brees is a key guy for me this week and it all comes down to game script. If the Bengals offense can score some points, Brees can have a huge fantasy game. The Bengals gave up 450 passing yards to the Buccaneers their last game and are missing a number of key defenders. Cincinnati can’t cover good pass-catching running backs (especially with the injuries), so this is an especially brutal matchup. However, with no A.J. Green, there is also a chance the Bengals offense really struggles and the Saints can jump out to a big lead and just pound away on the ground.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I thought the RB2 run happened a little too early this week. There wasn’t a need to reach given that having a good option like Marlon Mack as your RB2 was the worst case scenario at the position. The RB run pushed two of my favorite wide receivers this week, Keenan Allen and Odell Beckham Jr, down to me at the 2/3 turn. I am especially bullish on Allen. The Raiders have struggled against slot receivers and Allen has shown some frustration at his lack of red zone opportunities. In a game the Chargers should win handily, I expect a special effort to reward Allen with a touchdown.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
The guy at the top of my rankings when the draft concluded was Cooper Kupp. He has been the Rams’ most productive receiver when healthy. He had 6-90-1 in the first half against Seattle in Week 5 before suffering a concussion just before halftime. He had 9 targets in less than one half of play. I expect the Rams to look to Kupp early and often in their rematch with the Seahawks.

sean settle - SLOT 2

Overview: Sean went with a double running back strategy to begin his draft. He'll have Saquon Barkley (at SF) and Ezekiel Elliott (at PHI). Both are big talents, but the matchup at Philadelphia isn't favorable. The Eagles have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to running backs and aside from Saquon Barkley, the most rushing yards allowed in a game to one player has been 42 yards to Latavius Murray. This is not a good matchup for Elliott this week and it could come back to haunt Sean. He made good picks at receiver, drafting Davante Adams (vs MIA) and Mike Evans (vs WAS). He also managed to secure Aaron Rodgers which gives him a potent Packers QB-WR stack with Adams. This team has potential if the cards fall the right way and Rodgers and Adams have a big combination effort of yards and scores.

sean ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
There was the briefest of moments when I thought Gurley may slide to the 2nd running back off the board, but alas, it was not to be. I ended up getting Barkley at 2. He is coming out fresh after a Bye week and has the better matchup than Gurley, so I was happy with either player. Then after waiting what felt like an eternity, I somehow managed to grab Elliott with my second pick. Dallas tried throwing the ball against Tennessee last week and it burned them. I fully expect them to get back to their ground and pound game in a divisional matchup this week. From there, I was 1 pick away from scoring Beckham but settled for Adams. This worked perfectly as I could then stack him with Rogers and close out with the best remaining receiver. Had I gotten Beckham, I would not have stacked him with Eli and my team turned out better for it. I closed things with Mike Evans who only had 1 catch last week, but that came with 10 targets. If Evans gets 10 targets again, expect a much bigger game than 1 catch. That game was an exception and not the rule for Evans.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
This week is all going to come down to the game plan in Dallas. Elliott had a great first half on Monday Night Football and then they got away from using him. They tried to show that Dak is their quarterback of the future, rather than building off their best player in Elliott. I believe they get back to establishing the running game before going vertical to Cooper when the field has opened up a bit. With that said, it is tough to trust anything they are doing right now and there is a chance they get down early and throw the ball all game again. Elliott is their workhorse and hopefully they use him as such.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Despite everything I said above, I believe getting Elliot that late is the best value I received. Had I not gotten him it would have been a tossup between Mixon and Mack. Both of those backs have been strong in recent weeks and are coming off a Bye, but Elliott has the highest ceiling. He is typically viewed as an early first-round pick and goes within the first 4 running backs off the board. To get him on the back end of the second round was a big win for me.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
This is the first week that I would consider Josh Gordon as a candidate for a DRAFT team. He has stepped up in the absence of Gronkowski and is showing rapport with Brady. He went off for 130 yards and a touchdown on Sunday Night and seems to finally have a place in the offense. If he continues to see 10 targets a week in that offense, he is going to be very scary going forward. If Gronkowski misses another week, there is an instant boost to Gordon. Even if Gronkowski plays, Gordon’s stock is rising.

justin howe - SLOT 3

Overview - Justin used a balanced draft approach to his draft taking a running back, receiver, running back, receiver, quarterback with his picks. Landing the red-hot Kareem Hunt with the third pick in a cushy matchup against Arizona at home is an excellent value. He followed it up with Julio Jones (at CLE) in the second round followed by Joe Mixon (vs NO) in round three. Mixon's matchup against the Saints is a tough one. The Saints are among the Top 5 in fantasy points allowed to running backs and pose a difficult challenge for Mixon this week. Justin's last two picks are Brandin Cooks (vs SEA) and Matt Ryan (at CLE). Cooks has a surprising rank of 14 in the Week 10 Lineup Optimizer rankings among receivers. He was the 10th receiver taken in the draft, which doesn't yield much value. Matt Ryan in the last round should give Justin's lineup a boost as the cornerstone of the roster. Ryan has 8 touchdown passes in the last three games and he has surpassed 350 yards passing in each game.

justin ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Running back thins out a bit this week, which makes grabbing at least one high-usage guy extra crucial. I knew I could lock down a top name at 1.03, but without a second stud, I'd have found myself at a disadvantage compared to the others. Mixon falling to my third pick was a gift from above that tied this whole approach together. I almost took him over Jones, but when I realized that Dan was the only hurdle to scooping him in Round 3, I rolled the dice and added a high-usage, high-upside receiver. All told, I feel like I strung together a best-available approach while still keeping optimal DRAFT strategy in mind. That's always a good thing.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
I really rolled the dice on Cooks, who's dazzled at times but ultimately checks in with an uncertain outlook. He's posted 74 yards or more in 6 of his 8 full games, which is nice, but I'm generally more interested in chasing usage/volume than efficiency/big plays. And Cooks' 7.5 targets per game generally don't fit that bill. I don't hate my pick, of course - Cooks is a big-play dynamo in an offense projected to put up. But there's a real and distinct path to a ho-hum line around 3-55 that could truly sink me. If he doesn't shake loose down the field at least once or twice, this pick will hurt.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I won't quibble with Dan's choice of Odell Beckham Jr in Round 3, but it was fortuitous for me. It landed me Mixon as my RB2, and he definitely projects as better than the 15th guy taken. Mixon has been explosive, consistent, versatile, and high-usage - all the things you want from your DFS backs. He's averaging 21 touches and 104 scrimmage yards a game, so the fact that he's merely my RB2 makes me giddy. The Saints have been tough against the run, but Mixon is the Bengals' engine, especially with A.J. Green on the shelf. I'm usually pessimistic after DRAFTing with my experienced colleagues, but I think Mixon's value gives me a real edge this week.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
Honestly, I wish I'd taken Cooper Kupp instead of Cooks. I love Cooks' upside, but Kupp carries more dependable outlook for targets and a very similar big-play prognosis. Kupp is a slot guy, but he's not your typical one, limited in skillset and forced to run short, horizontal routes. Rather, he's a big-bodied route-winner capable of working his way down the field. And as Keith points out, the Seahawks are vulnerable to the slot. I love Cooks, but this is one I wouldn't mind having back with the benefit of hindsight.

keith roberts - SLOT 4

Overview - Like Sean, Keith's strategy was to draft two running backs to anchor his draft - Melvin Gordon III and James White are two excellent point-producers. Gordon has a marquee matchup against Oakland, while White has a tough game against Tennessee, who have allowed only two touchdowns to running backs all season (Alex Collins got them both in Week 6). White will need to use all of his tricks to keep pace with his average weekly production. Keith landed Patrick Mahomes II in the third round and followed him up with Tyler Boyd and Zach Ertz to conclude his draft. Boyd will operate as the Bengals WR1 with A.J. Green (foot) on the mend. We've seen Boyd thrive as a complementary receiver, but can he do the same as the team's primary target? The matchup against New Orleans is favorable and should yield good results. Ertz has been a huge target for Carson Wentz this year and he'll have the benefit of teams now needing to focus on both Alshon Jeffery and Golden Tate. As a result, Ertz could continue his torrid pace. Keith has positioned himself well for a run at the trophy this week.

keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I took a different approach going into this week’s draft, deciding to load up on running backs early while waiting until later for my wide receivers. As I looked over my rankings, I saw plenty of value I was comfortable with late at the receiver position. On the flip side, I was not comfortable at all with a running back outside of my top-10, so I did not want to get stuck with a tough decision later in the draft. My third and fourth-round pick combination did not exactly go as planned here though. When it rolled to me in Round 3, I had Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce all available. I knew I wanted one of the three but felt it most likely that Mahomes would get snatched if I did not take him. As such, I decided to jump on Mahomes and hope that either Hill or Kelce was left for me. Much to my display and the pleasure of Will, he snatched up both Hill and Kelce, leaving me with Tyler Boyd as my first receiver off the board.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
James White will be key for me this week due to the much-anticipated return of his counterpart Sony Michel. White has a decent matchup against the Titans, but game script indicates the Patriots may be running more so than trying to keep up with the hit and miss Titans offense. White has been productive both with and without Michel, but there is no doubt that Michel will take a few snaps from White while relegating him back to single-digit rushing attempts. White will need his typical double-digit targets and a touchdown look through the air to pay off this week.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I was pleased with Zach Ertz as the last receiver off the board. Ertz has been a focal point of the Eagles offense. Many were likely scared away from him due to the acquisition of Golden Tate, who will add competition for targets in the middle of the field. Ertz has built enough trust and chemistry with Carson Wentz that he should still remain heavily targeted though, especially with the Cowboys expecting to be without linebacker Sean Lee. Ertz has over 100 yards in three of his last five games with touchdowns in three of his last four. He remains a high-end option at tight end and should have plenty of opportunity with the solid matchup to hit value as the bottom barrel receiver in this draft.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Cooper Kupp was next on my list at receiver. Kupp has been integral to the success of this Rams passing offense, providing an everlasting safety blanket out of the slot for Jared Goff. He hasn’t gone below 50 receiving yards in a healthy game this season and has scored a touchdown in all but one of those outings. He can run routes both short and long alike and has averaged 15 or more yards per reception in four straight healthy outings dating back to Week 3. The matchup is also solid as Seattle has struggled against slot receivers at times this season, giving up big games to both Emmanuel Sanders and Keenan Allen.

will grant - SLOT 5

Overview - Will used a RB-RB-REC-REC-QB approach to his draft and he used one of his receiver picks on Travis Kelce. I like this strategy, if the first two running back picks are solid, high-producing players. This week's scarcity at running back makes this strategy a bit more risky. Will managed to draft David Johnson and Tevin Coleman with his first two running back picks. Johnson has the potential to shine in a semi-favorable matchup against Kansas City, but Arizona's offense could sputter on the road in a hostile environment. Coleman is the 15th ranked back this week. Will selected him as the 7th back off the board, which is not a good return in value. He could manage to produce decent numbers against Cleveland, but there is some risk there as well. Will's last three picks are actually quite strong with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Waiting on quarterback is always a good strategy, especially when only six quarterbacks are drafted. Philip Rivers and Jared Goff were not selected and could easily have been the last pick for several teams.

will ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Late pick in a six person draft means you need to honestly draft the best available player at each position. I fully expected the running backs to go pretty strong, and wanted to leverage my draft near the turn to take two solid ones. David Johnson is under rated this week because the Cardinals are expected to be blown out by Kansas City. But the Chief’s defense is still one of the worst in the league, and Johnson’s contributions running and catching the ball should give him a pretty solid week. Of the other running backs left after the first six were off the board, I like Coleman as s dual threat like Johnson. I still like KC this week and wanted as much of their offense as I could get. I narrowly missed Mahomes, but was pretty happy to land Hill and Kelce back to back. The Chiefs are putting up almost 35 points per week, so I’m not worried by having two receivers from the same team.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Taking Ryan Fitzpatrick as my quarterback was a bit of a gamble and I’m hoping that it pays off. By going back to back receivers with Kansas City, I knew I was going to get a lower tier quarterback. I took a shot that Fitzmagic could still be alive and well, and will fire up against Washington this week. There were plenty of other ‘higher rated’ quarterbacks who I could have taken, but I took a shot on Fitz.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I like David Johnson at a late first or early second round running back if you’re near the turn. The Chiefs are getting better on defense, but are still ranked 31st in the league giving up over 425 yards per game. Johnson is a threat both running and receiving, and he’s the main thrust of the Arizona offense. I think he has a great chance to post decent value this week.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
Adrian Peterson is still under rates this season, but he has a couple solid games so far and is a big focus of the Washington offense. This week he faces a soft Tampa Bay defense that has given up several big games to opposing running backs this season. Peterson has some decent upside, and I would be happy adding him to my team this week.

james brimacombe - SLOT 6

Overview: Like Justin, James used a balanced approach to his draft with a RB-REC-RB-REC-QB strategy. Alvin Kamara fell all the way to the 6th pick and James took advantage. He doubled up on Saints with Michael Thomas with his next pick at the 1-2 turn. This move may prove to be a wise decision. His alternative at running back with the second pick was weak, making the Kamara-Thomas stack all the more worthwhile. James followed up with Nick Chubb and Robert Woods at the 3-4 turn and then Carson Wentz as the last pick in the draft. Waiting on quarterback if you can't get Patrick Mahomes II in the third round seems to be a good strategy to go by. You can load up on best player available and wait on quarterback. Even in a week with two strong quarterbacks in the Thursday slate and four teams on bye, there were still formidable options in the last round, including a few that went undrafted. James crafted a strong team that could compete for the crown if Carson Wentz has his way with Dallas and the Saints RB-WR stack churns out a stellar performance.

james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT

1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I got dealt the 1.06 pick to start here but I was fortunate enough to land Alvin Kamara in that sport and follow it up with Michael Thomas at the turn. It was not ideal to have two star Saints players but it was hard to pass on either of them in those spots. When picking at the turn you are waiting for value and to see who will fall to you and that was no different for me this entire draft.

2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
I think the combo of Saints players has some added risk as you will need a lot of yards and points to be scored in this game but with the two big names, I am not too worried. The player I think makes or breaks me this week is Robert Woods as Cooper Kupp is back for the Rams and they have three very strong wide receivers and the top running back in the game so you just never know what type of volume these Rams receivers might get on any given week. Woods is coming off of five straight games of at least 5 catches and 7 targets but he has yet to catch a touchdown in that span.

3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Carson Wentz is my favorite value player this week as you can get him every time in the last round as your quarterback and coming off a bye week against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football I think he delivers a huge game. Wentz has five straight games with at least two touchdown passes and plays on a team that is very pass-heavy with no true running back to have real shot at stealing touchdowns away from. Also, you have to add in the additional weapon in Golden Tate who will get his first action as an Eagle. The likes of Goff and Rivers were also available but with Gurley and Gordon as their running backs it worries me that they might steal some touchdowns as with Wentz I don’t have the worry with Smallwood, Adams, or Clement at the moment.

4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who was not drafted, who would it be and why?
I don’t mind Alshon Jeffery this week to pair with Carson Wentz and looking at my team now I wouldn’t even mind swapping out Woods for him to have the QB/WR stack. If five games this year Jeffery has looked very good with his 29/341/4 stat line as the touchdown potential is there every single week. He is averaging nearly 9 targets a game and will once again be a big part of the offense against the Cowboys.

PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER

Questions, suggestions and, comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com