Six Footballguys staff completed a 6-man Week 5 mock draft using the DRAFT scoring format below. Each participant must fill a roster with exactly these five positions: QB-RB-RB-WR/TE-WR/TE using a serpentine draft style.
OFFICIAL DRAFT SCORING FORMAT
Passing Yard 0.04
Passing TD 4
Interception Thrown -1
Reception 0.5
Rushing Yard 0.1
Rushing TD 6
Receiving Yard 0.1
Receiving TD 6
Return TD 6
2-Point Conversion 2
Fumble Lost -2
THE PARTICIPANTS FOR THE WEEK 4 DRAFT:
1.01 James Brimacombe
1.02 Keith Roberts
1.03 Will Grant
1.04 Sean Settle
1.05 Dan Hindery
1.06 Justin Howe
DRAFT RESULTS
DRAFT EVALUATION
james brimacombe - SLOT 1
Overview - James had the highest projected score this week, in large part due to drafting two players with #1 rankings (Todd Gurley & DeAndre Hopkins) and one #2 ranking (Ben Roethlisberger). He also has Odell Beckham Jr who is projected #6 this week. The lone player outside of the Top 10 is Marshawn Lynch, who comes in 11th among running backs. The #1 overall slot can often be an advantage and James showed you how to attack it. Stud running back with the first pick, Two strong receivers at the 2/3 turn and then either running back or quarterback with the last two picks. James lucked out having Ben Roethlisberger sitting on the board at the end of round four. He was the fourth quarterback selected and is ranked #2 this week - excellent value. With his last pick, he could have selected a number of different running backs including Joe Mixon or Mark Ingram. He did just fine with Marshawn Lynch, who has performed well lately. This appears to be James' draft to lose.
james ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Well I lucked into the 1.01 pick so right off the bat I have an advantage as I get my choice of what running back I want to roster and I also get to pick at the 2.06/3.01 and 4.01/5.01 turns which is big in these DRAFT format 6-man drafts. I didn’t like my option at RB2 so I waited until Round 5 to take Marshawn Lynch but I might have been better going with a David Johnson at the 2/3 turn instead of going with Hopkins and Beckham Jr. I love that I got Ben Roethlisberger at the 4.06 pick as he is in the biggest over/under game on the slate and the Steelers have so many weapons for him to get the ball to.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Marshawn Lynch as my RB2 is the name that concerns me the most but he was also my 5th round pick so a lot of those guys in that range are make-or-break types. Lynch should still see 15+ touches against the Chargers on the road but it is not an ideal matchup altogether. It might have been smart to look for a better matchup play such as Aaron Jones against the Lions in a high total game.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I think getting a piece of the Falcons/Steelers game with Ben Roethlisberger in the 4th round was fantastic value. I am good with trying to get either Roethlisberger or Matt Ryan as my quarterback this week and whoever drops to me around the 4th round makes a lot of sense.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Stefon Diggs is a name that is interesting this week as everyone seems to be on Adam Thielen and forgetting about Diggs. Diggs sees a lot of volume of targets and is in a potential shootout with the Eagles and could have a big game regardless of the game script.
keith roberts - SLOT 2
Overview: Keith drafted the Top ranked quarterback this week in Matt Ryan. The Falcons vs Steelers game is expected to be high scoring as both defenses are struggling at the moment. Ryan is slightly favored over Ben Roethlisberger, but truthfully, both quarterbacks could enjoy a big game. Ryan was the second quarterback drafted, in the third round, which allowed Keith to focus on running back with his first two picks. He decided on Alvin Kamara and James Conner. Kamara has been a fantasy stud in the first quarter of the season, but now that Mark Ingram is returning to the lineup, it's possible that Kamara's workload could decrease. Even so, he's expected to be the 5th ranked running back this week. We talked about the Steelers matchup, which is good news for Conner. Keith finished his draft with his two receivers - Keenan Allen and Golden Tate. Allen has struggled to take off this year, but his pedigree is too good to pass up. Tate has been hot lately and will face the Packers at home. His receivers aren't bad by any stretch, but he left Brandin Cooks, Stefon Diggs and Cooper Kupp on the board. We'll see if it pays off.
keith ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
This week it was important for me to get a piece of the Falcons and Steelers, which I did with James Conner and Matt Ryan. With the highest game total we have seen all season, this one has shootout written all over it. Conner has disappointed in the past few weeks, but the Falcons have give up tons of points through the air to running backs over the last two seasons. Ryan is facing a Steelers secondary capable of giving up plenty of yards, as we have seen in the past three weeks with them coughing up over 320 passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns in all three games.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Alvin Kamara as the second overall pick will be the guy for me. Kamara is in a good matchup against a funnel defense in Washington. The Redskins rank 31st using DVOA against the run but 3rd against the pass. While they have been relatively stingy against pass-catching running backs, Kamara is another breed compared to who the Redskins have faced thus far. The big make or break moment will be how quickly Mark Ingram integrates back into this offense, as he theoretically should see the majority of touches in the ground game if the Saints mimic usage from 2017. However, all it takes for Kamars is a couple plays to explode and achieve that first-round value.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I am happy with getting Keenan Allen in the fifth round. While he hasn’t done much this season in terms of fantasy production, the volume is there as Allen remains the top target in this offense. Oakland’s secondary sits firmly within the top-10 in terms of most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season, including four touchdowns in their Week 3 bout with the Dolphins. He has only one touchdown this season, but this can be the week we see last season’s fantasy WR3 get back to his old self.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
As others have (or will) mentioned, Joe Mixon would have been an excellent pick late in this draft. I also had an eye on Matt Breida as an option. Breida has started to take hold of the 49ers backfield and enters a premium matchup against a Cardinals run defense that has really struggled to mesh under a new scheme this season. Giving up the second-most rushing yards per game and fantasy points per game to running backs, the Cardinals have shown they can struggle to stop opposing runners. If Mike Davis can break the 100-yard mark, it is certainly reasonable to expect Matt Breida should have a good chance at it as well.
will grant - SLOT 3
Overview - Will had the 3rd highest projections for his players, as indicated by the Week 5 Lineup Optimizer. His first two picks were Melvin Gordon and Michael Thomas. Both have been key contributors on high scoring, capable offenses. Gordon is ranked #2 among running backs this week and Thomas is 5th among wide receivers. David Johnson was his third-round pick, who ranks 8th in this week's projections. Johnson started off slow, but last week it looks like the Cardinals coaching staff will get him more involved in every aspect of the game. Let's see if that continues. The matchup at San Francisco is one that could elevate Will's production this week. Will concluded his draft with a stack of Packers, Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers. The Packers will face division rival Detroit at Ford Field. Anything can happen when Rodgers is your quarterback. Combining him and Davante Adams is an excellent strategy that could pay big dividends.
will ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
Last week showed me that drafting a quarterback in the first round is a mistake. The running back talent dries up pretty quickly in the first two rounds and if you draft near the turn, your alternative to taking a running back is to take the top talent at wide receiver. So my plan this week was to take the best running backs and wide receivers available. I was disappointed that I missed landing Ezekiel Elliott to pair with Melvin Gordon, but Sean sniped him just before my pick in round 2. So I pivoted to one of the top receivers and took Michael Thomas. Sean did it again in round 4, sniping Cam Newton from me when I wanted to take a quarterback in round four. I pivoted again and took Adams who should have a solid week against Detroit in a division game that is ‘Must Win’ for the Packers. I added Aaron Rodgers to stack with him with my last pick and finished with a team I felt pretty good about.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
I’ve been fading David Johnson in most DFS contest this season because Arizona has been so bad offensively. But this week they are facing the 49ers and nearly pulled off an upset last week. Johnson showed signs of life in that game and I think he continues that upward trend this week. If he does well, my team should do very well.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I think Davante Adams is poised to have a big game against Detroit this week. The Packers have struggled this season, but need to beat Detroit and improve their division record if they want to win. The NFC North is up for grabs and the Bears are a surprise upstart. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are going to need a big game to beat the Lions this week and Aaron Rodgers has a way of coming up big when he needs to.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Joe Mixon has missed the last two weeks, but he is back at practice and should be ready for this weekend’s game at home against Miami. The Bengals have a hot offense and are in first place. If Mixon is healthy, he should have a decent game and he’d make an excellent addition as a 6th round pick.
SEAN SETTLE - SLOT 4
Overview - Four of Sean's five draft selections are projected to finish in the Top 4 at their position, and the fifth (A.J. Green) is ranked 10th. Sean has talented players across the board and if Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton hook up for a score or two against the Giants, he could find himself winning the week. Sean selected McCaffrey first, followed by Ezekiel Elliott in the second round. It's rare to see Elliott fall that far and Sean was in the right place at the right time to take him. Adam Thielen has a tough matchup at Philadelphia, but he has shown that he can be a reliable target for quarterback Kirk Cousins. Thielen has double-digit targets in every game this year and he has twice exceeded 12 receptions in a game. Sean drafted a team that can score via yardage, receptions and scores. It's rare to craft a team that is that versatile. He finished his draft with Cam Newton (McCaffrey stack) and A.J. Green. This will be a tough team to beat.
SEAN ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I went a little off script this week after getting one of the best running back pairings of the draft this week. I was able to go McCaffrey and then Elliot to start and then pulled in Thielen as the high target machine that he is. However, instead of stacking my QB and WR this week I went with a QB/RB stack. These usually do not work out well except for in the case of Newton and McCaffrey. The Panthers are coming fresh out of a Bye and playing a Giants team that was thrashed by Alvin Kamara on the ground. Newton is a dual-threat quarterback that also loves to throw to McCaffrey. The only other potential QB/RB pairing I would consider is Brees and Kamara but that changes with Mark Ingram back this week. I am very happy with this draft and excited to see how it turns out.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Cam Newton will be the driving force behind this team. He can throw for 300 yards, rush for 2 touchdowns, and throw 2 touchdowns any week, but he can also take 1 big hit in the run game and be out the rest of the game. There are also times when he struggles with accuracy but that should be limited with him throwing to a running back for me this week. It is all going to come down to which Newton shows up this week, especially after the Giants held Drew Brees without a touchdown pass last week.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
The best value has to have come from AJ Green. You never want to celebrate an injury to another player, but with Eifert out for the rest of the year, Green should see a bump in his targets. Dalton loves to throw to Green, especially in the red zone. There is also the chance that Joe Mixon returns this week and a solid running game helps to open things up down field as well. There could be the perfect storm brewing for Green this week and I was able to take him in the last round.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I would target Mark Ingram in his return to the Saints. It would be a very risky play, but he has sat and watched Kamara take over the offense for the Saints and needs to prove that he is still worth a spot on the team. He will most likely be on limited snaps and would need to make big plays to be worth it. I think Ingram plays with a chip on his shoulder this week as he tries to prove that Kamara is not the only running back in New Orleans.
dan hindery - SLOT 5
Overview - Dan is going with a double-receiver Steelers stack with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. He did not land the trifecta with Ben Roethlisberger, but the dynamic duo in Pittsburgh is an excellent stack strategy, in what looks to be a very high scoring game against Atlanta. All of Dan's picks are projected in the Top 9 at their position or higher. He has a consistent group with plenty of score-power. Dan started his draft with Saquon Barkley, then he selected Brown, followed by T.J. Yeldon and Smith-Schuster. Yeldon will continue to see action as the Jaguars lead back, while Leonard Fournette rests his injured hamstring. Dan's last pick wound up being the top quarterback in the league in a home game. The drawback is that the opponent is Jacksonville. If Mahomes can continue his winning ways against a tough matchup in Jacksonville, there's a good chance that he'll finish at or near the top this week.
dan ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I wanted to get at least one top running back and it felt like the safest move to lock up one of my top-5 in the first round with Saquon Barkley. I strongly considered Antonio Brown with that pick and was thrilled he made it back around to me. T.J. Yeldon and Joe Mixon are strong RB2 options this week and I was confident at least one of them would be available in the third round, so I didn’t feel like I had to take another back in the second round.
I like pairing Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Having both gives me a high floor at the position. It is hard to imagine a scenario where neither has a good game. It also gives me plenty of upside in a game where the Steelers are expected to score 30+ points.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Patrick Mahomes is a boom or bust choice this week facing the loaded Jacksonville defense. The league’s hottest pass offense facing the best pass defense should be a fun matchup. Even facing the Jaguars, Mahomes has plenty of upside. He is a threat to run, especially in the red zone. Plus, he takes so many deep shots to talented pass catchers, he can pile on the fantasy points in a hurry.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
I love getting Antonio Brown in the second round. He is playing at home against a terrible Atlanta defense in a game expected to be a major shootout. Brown hasn’t yet had one of those games where he single-handedly wins a week on DRAFT but that may just mean he is due because those monster games have come regularly in past years.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
Joe Mixon is a great play this week. He is back and practicing full. Meanwhile, Giovani Bernard is nursing an injury and not practicing. Mixon should dominate the backfield touches this week. The matchup against Miami is a strong one. The Dolphins just gave up 44.4 DRAFT points to the Patriots duo of Sony Michel and James White last week.
JUSTIN HOWE - SLOT 6
Overview: Justin finished as the lowest projected score in this week's rankings. He took a stab at Deshaun Watson as his first pick in the draft at slot 6. Watson started off a bit slow this year, but has recently picked up his game. Dallas has allowed two touchdown passes in each of the last two games, which bodes well for Watson who has three consecutive 300+ yard games with 2, 2 and 3 touchdowns in that same span. Justin selected Julio Jones in round two, who has an excellent matchup against Pittsburgh's weakened secondary. His next two picks were both Chiefs, who face a tough Jaguars defense. Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt are ranked 17th and 14th at their position, as a result. Justin's last pick is an interesting one in Adrian Peterson. Washington will face the Saints on the road on Monday night. New Orleans has not allowed a running back to rush over 69 yards this season. Top rushers against the Saints have topped 69, 43, 33 and 44 yards rushing. Peterson does have a revenge factor working in his favor though. New Orleans failed to use Peterson during his time there and the lack of playing time almost ended his career. A revenge game could be in the cards, which would help Justin's team overcome some tough expectations.
JUSTIN ANSWERS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS DRAFT
1. What was your draft strategy with this week's slate of games and how did it turn out for you?
I'm still looking for avenues to both chase the week's top quarterback AND lock down productive running backs. That's why I went big on Watson, who always has a path to that spot, over Elliott. If I had to make that pick 1,000 times, I'd probably opt for Elliott in 500 of them, but here I need an edge and I wanted to make sure I'd land Watson. That's quite a leap from my usual approach of furiously chasing high-usage running backs, but this season has offered a glut of those. Knowing I'd have a good shot at two usage monsters later on, I was fine laying out for Watson's upside.
2. Which player on your roster do you think will make or break you?
Watson, of course, but also Tyreek Hill. The matchup is daunting, but Hill's foot-speed and connection with Mahomes is matchup-proof. A handful of short catches and one long-gainer will bring the scoring I need from this slot. There were more "appropriate" options on the board, but Hill brings similar upside and likely won't be contending with Sammy Watkins for deep-ball opportunities. I can foresee a gameplan devised around feeding Hill 8-10 looks and praying for a big play.
3. Which player do you believe you received the best value?
Kareem Hunt faces that same grueling matchup, but he showed his capabilities against rugged defensive fronts last week. His slight boost in targets wasn't fluky - against the Jaguars' swarming front, he could well catch 4-6 balls out of the backfield Sunday to supplement his dominant role in the running game. I fully understand why my DRAFTmates bailed on him, but he brings Round 2 value at a time when most other DRAFTers have already filled their RB slots.
4. If you could choose one more player at RB, WR or TE who would it be and why?
I agree with Dan that Mixon is intriguing, though there's always the worry over an in-game aggravation. Mixon is a violent runner who takes a lot of contact. Had I not taken Peterson as Mr. Irrelevant, I likely would've opted for Mixon, though I'm happy with my call.
PROJECTIONS PREDICT THE WINNER
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
