DFS Roundtable: Trustworthy Offenses

The DFS team discusses potential trustworthy offenses for Week 11

Which offense do you trust the most for DFS play(s) this week and why?

  • Buccaneers (high over-under at Giants, but more bad Fitzpatrick than good)
  • Cardinals vs. Raiders (low total, trust the running backs?)
  • Bengals (at Baltimore)
  • Texans (low total, road favorite at Washington)

James Brimacombe: At first glance, I was going to say no way I trust the Buccaneers this week but out of this bunch and the more that I look at the numbers I prefer them out of the Cardinals, Raiders, Bengals, and Texans. The matchups are just too tough for the other teams and for the Buccaneers to get a road matchup against the Giants just seems like a sneaky shootout type of game where you have two bad teams that can fire touchdowns back and forth. I think you have to give Ryan Fitzpatrick another look this week just based on the matchup alone and pairing him with Mike Evans could be popular but looking at Chris Godwin might be a nice alternative. Godwin caught 7 of 7 passes last week for 103 yards and we know what kind of connection he had with Fitzpatrick to open the season as the two connected for a touchdown in each of the first three games.

Justin Howe: I’m still looking toward Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers, who don’t stop to focus on silly points like efficiency. Regardless of game flow, they’ll always look to bombard with wild passing volume. Even if Fitzpatrick finds himself boxed in by defensive gameplan, as he was against the Panthers, he projects to score far beyond his DFS salary. With an arsenal of receivers that produces and runs the salary gamut, there are always numerous attractive stacking options. Pair him with a still-too-cheap Chris Godwin and/or Mike Evans, who could have his way downfield against a struggling Janoris Jenkins. Fitzpatrick is Fitzpatrick, but Vegas, common sense and the DFS salary-making system are begging us to take the leap.

Phil Alexander: Buccaneers at Giants could be a high-scoring game. Or it could be a complete stink-bomb between two awful teams. As I much as I'd like to go back to Fitzpatrick and the Tampa Bay pass-catchers, I'm leery of head coach Dirk Koetter taking over play-calling from offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who was doing a fantastic job.

I'll go with the Cardinals offense at home against the flat-lining Raiders. In two games as Arizona's play-caller, Byron Leftwich has shown a commitment to feature his best players -- namely David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Johnson turned back the clock to 2016 with 21 carries, 9 targets, 183 total yards, and 2 touchdowns last week against the Chiefs. He should be able to keep it going against an Oakland defense that has been smoked by Marlon Mack (25-132-2), Nyheim Hines (11-78-0), Raheem Mostert (7-86-1), and Melvin Gordon III (165 total yards and a touchdown) in recent weeks.

Fitzgerald has received double-digit targets in both games with Leftwich as offensive coordinator. Wide receivers in his price tier on PPR sites do not typically come with at least 10 targets all but locked in.

Dan Hindery: I trust the Buccaneers to put up fantasy numbers. They may fumble it away in the red zone but the passing offense has been incredibly prolific even in the ugliest losses. For example, even in stumbling to just 3 points in an embarrassing 16-3 loss, the Buccaneers still threw for 406 yards, had two 100+ yard receivers, and 5 receivers with 50+ yards.

On the season, Tampa Bay is averaging a ridiculous 361.2 passing yards per game. They are throwing the ball often (41.6 per game) and efficiently (8.7 yards per attempt). Only turnovers are holding them back.

BJ VanderWoude: I trust the Bucs much more than the other teams on this list. The Bengals struggled without AJ Green taking coverage away from Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon will have to contend with defenses stacking the box much more than they were earlier in the season. I like how the Texans are playing, but they don't provide the overall volume that the Bucs do. Tampa Bay does not run the ball, and even with teams knowing this, Fitzpatrick still delivered his fourth 400+ yard performance in five starts. As far as fantasy goes, he is a stable play and one that comes at a steep discount compared to any other quarterback who is a threat to throw for that many yards each week. Mike Evans should rebound this week, OJ Howard has become a necessary play each week at tight end, and Chris Godwin/Desean Jackson are both secondary targets with upside that come at a discount. Each week they are overlooked, yet Fitzpatrick and company continue to put up fantasy points.

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