DFS Roundtable: Touchdown Regression Wide Receivers

The DFS team discusses banking on the touchdown regression of wide receivers

With six weeks in the books, who are you betting on the most as a touchdown regression play this week?

On the flip side, how do you feel about wide receivers coming off huge games and a rising salary as lineup plays?

Notable receivers from Week 6 include:

Phil Alexander: Jarvis Landry only has one game this season in which he failed to command at least 20% of Cleveland's red zone targets. He hasn't been on the same page with Baker Mayfield, but the two should start to develop a stronger rapport as they continue to log more practices and games together. A matchup against Tampa Bay's 32nd-ranked pass defense (DVOA) is the catalyst Landry needs to get back on track.

On the flip side, how do you feel about wide receivers coming off huge games and a rising salary as lineup plays? Notable receivers from Week 6 include:

  • Tyreek Hill - Never completely fade him in GPPs. Never ever. Ever.
  • Tyrell Williams - Good for a couple of performances like last week's every year. Have fun figuring out when they're coming.
  • Taylor Gabriel - Looks like a permanent fixture in the Bears offense. Price on the rise, but still a solid value at less than $5K (DraftKings).
  • Jermaine Kearse - Enunwa's ankle injury and Terrelle Pryor's groin pull could make him a target-hog out of the slot for the Jets. Cash game viable on full-PPR sites and recommended for tournaments if he and Robby Anderson are the last New York receivers left standing.
  • Michael Crabtree - Nice to see he still has games like last week's in him, but way more interested in John Brown coming off a disappointing week.

James Brimacombe: I have been on Keenan Allen every single week so I am all in once again. It was nice to see the Chargers make extra efforts in getting the ball into his hands as they gave him four designed carries that lead to 41 yards and also ended with four catches for 62 yards. The opportunities are there for Allen and this could be the week he finds the end zone but even if doesn’t he still has a very safe floor with the amount of volume he is seeing.

Taylor Gabriel is interesting this week as he is often a name that goes overlooked but with the matchup against the Patriots he could once again be highly involved as the Patriots have a history of trying to take away a teams top offensive player in Allen Robinson.

Dan Hindery: Jarvis Landry has a plum matchup against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have already allowed 16 passing touchdowns this season and have given up an average of 4.0 passing touchdowns per game since Week 3. The Browns wide receivers corps behind Jarvis Landry is a mess. Antonio Callaway has been awful but injuries to Rashard Higgins and Derrick Willies have forced the Browns to keep running Callaway out there. Baker Mayfield has no choice but to pepper Jarvis Landry with targets (11.0 per game this season). With that type of volume against this awful pass defense (32nd in pass defense DVOA), Landry has a great chance to break his touchdown drought.

As noted above, I am in on Michael Crabtree this week. He should see a heavy workload and has had a solid connection with Joe Flacco despite struggling with the occasional drop.

I also like Taylor Gabriel to stay hot. He has had 34 opportunities (targets plus carries) over the past four weeks, so the volume has been there. He also faces a New England secondary that struggles against speed receivers. Patriots defenders stated after the Sunday night game that taking away Tyreek Hill was a priority and he received extra attention in the game plan. Even with two defenders focused on Hill most plays, he was still able to just run by them because they didn't have the speed to keep up. Gabriel will present similar problems and Hill’s success last week will be a blueprint for Matt Nagy in designing his game plan this week.

Justin Howe: By the numbers, Keenan Allen should find the end zone soon. That’s a lot of attention to have only scored once thus far. He’s not your average slot man, but rather a solid-bodied target who can win with physicality in tight spaces. I was encouraged by last year’s touchdown marks, and I don’t think he’s far from returning to those red zone looks. Allen was thrown to 15 times from inside the 10 last year – seven from inside the 5 – and I figure that will turn around abruptly here in 2018.

Keeping it in L.A., Tyrell Williams looks like the odd man out in this group. It’s bizarre to see a guy with just one red zone target sitting on three touchdowns. Williams is an elite downfield playmaker in bursts, as we saw last Sunday, but he’s not much of a factor near the goal line. And that’s where projectable fantasy dynamism is born.

Will Grant:

Keenan Allen

  • Tennessee has a pretty tough defense, and they are going to give the Chargers a rough time this week after an embarrassing loss to Baltimore. I’m not sure I’d count on Allen for a touchdown this week.

Jarvis Landry

  • Tampa Bay is a not great at stopping anyone and gave up five touchdown passes to Mitchell Trubisky a couple weeks ago. Tampa’s at home this week, but I still think that Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry are an interesting stack this week. I’d put this one down for a yes.

Brandin Cooks

  • Cooks is due and as discussed above, the Rams are expected to score 30 against the 49ers this week. Cooks has a reasonable chance to reach the end zone this week.

Corey Davis

  • I’m fading anyone from the Tennessee offense until further notice.

Tyreek Hill

  • Hill’s not going toputthosekindof numbers on the Bengals this week, but with the Chiefs playing at home, he should still have a decent game.

Tyrell Williams

  • GPP play only. He hasn’t had more than three catches in any game this season.

Taylor Gabriel

  • Gabriel looks to be the guy to have from the Bears right now. I think they put up a few points on New England playing at home this week and Gabriel has a decent chance to post a decent game and score a touchdown.

Jermaine Kearse

  • ‘Someone’s gotta catch the ball in New York’ – I suppose that Kearse is just as likely to do it as Terrelle Pryor. Jets play the Vikings though and they may struggle a bit this week as well. Think I’ll pass on this one.

Emmanuel Sanders

  • Cardinals are really not a great team this year and the Broncos always seem to play tough when they go to Arizona. Sanders looks like the WR1 for the Broncos but I think last week’s stats are probably his ceiling.

Michael Crabtree

I think Crabtree continues the trend against a Saints defense that wasn’t that great before the bye week and could come out flat after the big Monday night win and then an extra week off. Baltimore on a high after sacking the Titans 100 times last week. I think Crabtree is a good play.

BJ VanderWoude:

Brandin Cooks is the obvious choice in this bunch for me, because he sees a 49ers defense that was just carved up by Aaron Rodgers. Yes, it is Rodgers, but the tape showed the 49ers secondary messing up very badly and breaking down in coverage. The Packers do not have the type of weapons the Rams do in terms of spreading out opposing defenses and attacking on the perimeter. I think Cooks hits 100+ yards and a touchdown this week, most likely a long touchdown to boot.

Tyrell Williams just isn't seeing the target volume that would make you want to invest in him each week. Melvin Gordon III is crushing, and even Keenan Allen has paid the price of consistency this season. Tyreek Hill can go off in any given week and is the type of talent that you cannot afford to bet against. Taylor Gabriel looks like he is just getting started, as the Bears have started to look at him as a legitimate wide receiver, instead of a decoy, and it seems he does nothing but produce when given a chance. He also runs some nasty routes where he features a double move and with his quickness, the Patriots are going to have their hands full.

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