Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
Week 17 of DFS play is here, and hockey coach Herb Brooks had it right when he famously said: “great moments are born from great opportunities.” Each team has its motivation for how it is going to handle the minutes they play their starters in the season’s final week, and this article from FootballGuys’ Phil Alexander is a great place to get some of that information.
Monitor news coming from all teams this week as there is potential for cheaper priced options to play big minutes for teams resting starters, and this is where you can gain an edge over the competition. Be sure to pay attention to the status of players you are looking to roster, but understand there are no absolutes at play. There will be opportunities for backups this week, and the more research you do relating to playing time and game scripts, the better your chances of having a meaningful final week of regular-season DFS play.
The following write-ups are not written with any consideration to playing time issues and are matchup and game script related. The following stacks carry more risk than normal due to playing time volatility, and you need to determine how much risk you are willing to tolerate before deciding to roster any of the following players.
Lastly, this article will be updated Saturday if any news comes out that impacts the following players in any way.
Edit: This article was updated as of 9:00 PM EST on 12/29/18
Below each write-up is information on the starters (if any has been revealed) and what each team may do in certain circumstances, and injury information. This information will help you assess risk and help you build lineups.
FanDuel: Mahomes ($9,500) + Hill ($7,800) = $17,300
DraftKings: Mahomes ($7,100) + Hill ($8,400) = $15,500
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 14 ranked pass defense allowing 236.2 yards per game
Game Total - 54
Implied Totals - Chiefs at 34 points and Raiders at 20 points
Game Line - Kansas City Chiefs -13.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are at home on Sunday as they take on the Oakland Raiders in a Week 17 AFC West matchup. This game is expected to be high scoring as it has the highest total of the week, and the implied number has the Chiefs scoring almost five touchdowns in this game.
Mahomes has been incredible in 2018, throwing for 48 touchdowns and 4816 yards while only throwing 11 interceptions. He has also added 217 yards rushing and has two rushing touchdowns this season. Mahomes threw four touchdown passes when these teams met back in Week 13.
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