Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
Let's address the elephant in the room. If you're playing the Sunday-Monday slate, stacking the Monday Night Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and St. Louis Rams is going to be extremely popular. There are really three ways to play this:
1) If you are worried about the Monday game and do not want to be forced to roster players from this game, then ignore it, and you can do just that by playing just the Sunday Main slate which does not include the Monday Night game.
2) If you want to fade the game and hope it goes under, play the Sunday-Monday slate and just avoid the game completely with the hope it underperforms. Do this at your own risk!
3) If you do want to play the Sunday-Monday slate in order to watch this game, make some bold calls on the game. There will be people who will completely game stack this game, so taking a stand against certain players such as Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Todd Gurley, etc. underperforming would be the way to play this.
FanDuel: Manning ($6,700) + Beckham ($8,500) = $15,200
DraftKings: Manning ($5,200) + Beckham ($8,400) = $13,600
Facing the No. 30 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 29 ranked pass defense allowing 291.9 yards per game
Game Total - 52
Implied Totals - Giants at 26.5 points and Buccaneers at 25.5 points
Game Line - New York Giants -1
The New York Giants are at home on Sunday as they bring the Tamp Bay Buccaneers to the Meadowlands for a Week 11 NFC matchup. This game is expected to be one of the higher scoring games of the week as it has the third-highest game total. The implied number has the Giants scoring just less than four touchdowns in this game, and Manning should pick apart a horrible Buccaneers pass defense in this contest.
Manning has had a quiet season, but he woke up last week against the 49ers, and there will be more passing-game volume for the Giants in this matchup. The Buccaneers have bled points to the passing game all season and Manning could be in store for a big game on Sunday.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Buccaneers for an 8.7-yard average, and only three teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Buccaneers have given up 23 scores through the air, and no team in the NFL has allowed more. The Buccaneers have also given up 38 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only one team in the NFL allows more of these types of plays.
Beckham is easily the first option in the Giants passing attack, and Manning will give him a chance to make plays. Note that Beckham has been targeted at least 10 times in every game but one in 2018. Beckham draws a great matchup against Buccaneers cornerback Brent Grimes on Sunday.
Beckham has been targeted 102 times in 2018, including 43 targets in the past four games. He has caught 26 passes in that span for 396 yards, scoring three touchdowns in those four games.
The Giants passing game is in an excellent spot in this matchup as the Buccaneers are extremely vulnerable versus the pass and the game script is favorable for plenty of volume which will allow Beckham to continue his excellent play in Week 11.
Pivot: Tight end and Evan Engram ($5,800 at FanDuel and $4,100 at DraftKings) is a strong option in this game as he faces a defense allowing 7.2 attempts and 77.1 yards per game to the tight end position. Wide receiver Sterling Shepard ($6,300 at FanDuel and $5,300 at DraftKings) is also a solid option and rostering him gives you a piece of a passing game that has the potential to go off on Sunday.
FanDuel: Newton ($8,600) + Olsen ($6,500) = $15,100
DraftKings: Newton ($6,200) + Olsen ($5,000) = $11,200
Facing the No. 31 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 8 ranked pass defense allowing 229.4 yards per game
Game Total - 51
Implied Totals - Panthers at 27.5 points and Lions at 23.5 points
Game Line - Carolina Panthers -4
The Carolina Panthers travel to Detroit on Sunday to face the Lions in a Week 11 NFC matchup that is expected to be a high scoring game. This game has the fourth-highest total of the week. The implied number has the Panthers scoring almost four touchdowns, and Newton faces a Lions defense on Sunday that has not had any answers of late.
Newton has thrown for 17 scores and three interceptions to go along with 2086 yards in his first nine games in 2018. He has also accumulated 352 yards and four touchdowns via his ability to run with the ball, and that significantly boosts his value. Newton has an excellent matchup in Week 11 and should be heavily considered for GPP play this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Lions for an 8.9-yard average which is second-worst in the NFL. The Lions have given up 33 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only 12 teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. The Lions have given up six passing plays of 40-plus yards and only nine teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays.
The Lions have also yielded 19 scores through the air, and only seven teams have given up more. Also, the Lions have allowed a quarterback rating of 116.8 which is second-worst in the NFL.
Olsen has been targeted 21 times over the past four games. He has caught 16 passes for 177 yards, but he has scored three touchdowns over that span. The touchdown numbers are where Olsen is earning his keep, and the Lions struggle to cover the tight end anywhere on the field. The Lions are the league’s No. 30 DVOA pass defense versus the tight end, and it is not tough to see him scoring in this game.
The game script has both teams scoring enough points to keep the other offense pushing the pace, and that means great things for Newton and the Panthers passing attack. Attacking the Lions defense is one of the best GPP plays in Week 11, especially if star cornerback Darius Slay is out again like he was last week when Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky lit up the Lions like a Christmas tree.
Note that Newton is questionable with a shoulder injury and Olsen is questionable with an injured foot, and you will need to monitor the status of each as the week moves on.
Pivot: Wide receiver Devin Funchess ($5,700 at FanDuel and $5,100 at DraftKings) is a very strong option as things stand, and if Slay is out, he becomes an excellent punt option at receiver as he should tear up anyone the Lions trot out to cover him. Pay attention to the injury situation with Slay and make sure to get Funchess into your lineup if Slay is out.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Stafford ($6,800) + Golladay ($6,400) = $13,200
DraftKings: Stafford ($5,400) + Golladay ($5,800) = $11,200
Facing the No. 24 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 22 ranked pass defense allowing 258.2 yards per game
Game Total - 51
Implied Totals - Lions at 23.5 points and Panthers at 27.5 points
Game Line - Detroit Lions +4
The Detroit Lions bring the Carolina Panthers to Ford Field on Sunday for an NFC matchup in Week 11. This contest looks to be a high-scoring affair as it has the fourth-highest total of the week, and the Panthers (via their implied total) will force Stafford to open up the offense and throw the ball plenty in this game.
One of the most important keys to opening up GPP success is finding players on teams that play in games that go over their implied number. The Lions should surpass the 23.5 point total in this game, and if they do, it will come on the back of their aerial attack.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Panthers for a 7.6-yard average which is a respectable number, but the sheer number of passes they are defending has them surrendering significant yardage. The Panthers have given up 34 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only 11 teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays.
The Panthers have allowed 22 scores through the air in 2018, and only the Buccaneers have allowed more touchdowns. It is entirely reasonable to expect multiple passing scores from Stafford in this game. The Panthers surrendered four passing scores to Buccaneers quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, and last week they gave up five scores to Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
The game script calls for plenty of points from the Panthers and it is easy to see that forcing the Lions to open up their offense and keep throwing the ball down the field. However, there is risk in rostering any Lions passing-game player as they have had fairly low upside in 2018, and the offensive line comes into this game struggling to protect Stafford.
Golladay is emerging as the Lions leading option in their passing game with the trade of receiver Golden Tate. He saw 13 targets last week against the Bears with the offense chasing from behind and fellow receiver Marvin Jones is dealing with a knee injury and is questionable for this week. There is clear risk here, but there is also upside, and this stack could pay dividends for GPP play in Week 11.
FanDuel: Wentz ($7,700) + Jeffery ($7,300) = $15,000
DraftKings: Wentz ($6,300) + Jeffery ($6,300) = $12,600
Facing the No. 28 ranked DVOA pass defense and the No. 31 allowing ranked pass defense 296.1 yards per game
Game Total - 54.5
Implied Totals - Eagles at 23 points and Saints at 31.5 points
Game Line - New Orleans Saints -8.5
The Philadelphia Eagles are on the road on Sunday to take on the New Orleans Saints in a Week 11 NFC clash. This game has the second-highest total of the week at 54.5 points, and the Eagles implied number has them only scoring 23 points. As mentioned above, there is value in finding players playing in offenses that go over their implied total and the Eagles should do exactly that in this game.
Wentz was still recovering from an ACL tear to start the season, but he started in Week 3 and has played extremely well to this point in 2018. He has thrown 15 touchdowns in his seven starts to go along with 2148 yards and only three interceptions.
Opposing quarterbacks have hit the Saints for an 8.8-yard average which is third-worst in the NFL. The Saints have given up 37 passing plays of 20-plus yards and only five teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays. The Saints have given up nine passing plays of 40-plus yards and only two teams in the NFL allow more of these types of plays.
The Saints have also yielded 19 scores through the air, and only seven teams have given up more. The Saints have allowed a quarterback rating of 108.8 which is fourth-worst in the NFL and only six teams have fewer sacks (21) than the Saints through 10 weeks in 2018.
The game script calls for plenty of volume for the Eagles passing game as they are a big underdog on the road facing a very potent offense. It is easy to see a path for GPP success for the Eagles passing attack in Week 11, but there is also risk via their low implied number.
Jeffery has been targeted 52 times in the six games he has played in 2018, and he has caught 33 passes for 389 yards and four scores over that span. Jeffery draws a very favorable matchup in Week 11 against Saints cornerback Eli Apple. Jeffery can win by separating with his body, and that makes him a dangerous red-zone weapon.
Pivot: Wide receiver Golden Tate ($6,600 at FanDuel and $5,500 at DraftKings) matches up against Saints slot cornerback P.J. Williams, and he should have no issues beating Williams at the line of scrimmage. Rostering Tate is risky because we do not know if Tate and Wentz are on the same page, and also do not know how the Eagles utilize Tate going forward. However, this is a great matchup for Tate and he could be productive in this contest. Tight end Zach Ertz ($7,600 at FanDuel and $6,600 at DraftKings) is always worth playing as he is one of the game’s elite options at the tight end position. He comes off of a huge day versus the Cowboys and could be in store for a big day in this game.
Alex Collins + Baltimore Ravens D/ST
FanDuel: Collins ($6,000) + Ravens ($4,200) = $10,200
DraftKings: Collins ($4,400) + Ravens ($3,200) = $7,600
Facing the No. 30 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 31 ranked run defense allowing 141.2 yards per game
Game Total - 48
Implied Totals - Ravens at 25.5 points and Bengals at 22.5 points
Game Line - Baltimore Ravens -3
The Baltimore Ravens are at home to face the Cincinnati Bengals in a Week 11 AFC North matchup. The Ravens are a three-point home-favorite, and they are forecast to score almost four touchdowns in this game.
Collins has a pretty juicy matchup against a defense yielding 5.0 yards per carry which is fourth-worst in the NFL. Only six teams across the league have defended more runs than the 28.3 per game the Bengals have faced.
The Bengals have surrendered nine running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards, and only six teams in the NFL allow more. They have also surrendered 11 touchdowns on the ground which is fifth-worst in the NFL.
Collins and the ground game may take on a bigger role with quarterback Joe Flacco questionable, and he is more than capable of handling a bigger workload. The game script calls for a heavier than normal workload for Collins against the Bengals on Sunday, and he is in line for a big game against an awful run defense.
The Ravens will be able to get after Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton as they enter this game with 28 total sacks in 2018 which is seventh-most in the NFL. Pressure applied on Dalton should give the Ravens defense plenty of opportunities to put up points in this game.
Collins and the Ravens defense are in prime matchups in Week 11, and both sides of this stack should perform well in GPP play in Week 11.
Melvin Gordon III III + Los Angeles Chargers D/ST
FanDuel: Gordon ($8,700) + Chargers ($4,600) = $13,300
DraftKings: Gordon ($8,900) + Chargers ($3,400) = $12,300
Facing the No. 18 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 26 ranked run defense allowing 131.6 yards per game
Game Total - 46.5
Implied Totals - Chargers at 27 points and Broncos at 20 points
Game Line - Los Angeles Chargers -7
The Los Angeles Chargers bring Denver to town on Sunday to take on the Broncos in an AFC West matchup in Week 11. The Chargers are a seven-point favorite at home, and they are forecast to score almost four touchdowns in this game.
The Broncos run defense is seeing a lot of volume as they have defended 27.3 rushing attempts per game which is ninth-most in the NFL. Gordon has a fantastic matchup against a defense yielding 4.8 yards per carry, and only six teams in the NFL allow a higher average.
The Broncos have surrendered 10 running plays that have gone for 20-plus yards and only three teams in the NFL allow more of these types of runs. They have allowed three running plays of 40-plus yards which are third-most in the NFL. The Broncos have given up eight rushing scores in 2018, and only 12 teams have allowed more.
Gordon is one of the elite running backs in the NFL because of his ability to run and catch the ball. Gordon has scored 11 total touchdowns this season, and he has been involved in the passing attack as well as he has been targeted 52 times in the eight games he has played in 2018. He has caught 36 passes for 361 yards and catching four touchdowns in 2018. The Chargers are utilizing Gordon as a runner and as a weapon out of the backfield.
The game script calls for the Chargers to be up and running away from the Broncos in this game, and that means Gordon is in line for a big day from a volume standpoint. He should be able to exploit the poor Broncos defense in Week 11 as a runner and as a receiver.
The Chargers should be able to get after Broncos quarterback Case Keenum as they have generated 26 sacks in 2018 which is ninth-most in the NFL. The Chargers can apply pressure to force Keenum into bad decisions which can lead to defensive production.
The matchups are excellent for both Gordon and the Chargers defense, and each part of the stack should perform well in GPP play in Week 11.
Christian McCaffrey + Carolina Panthers D/ST
FanDuel: McCaffrey ($8,600) + Panthers ($4,000) = $12,600
DraftKings: McCaffrey ($8,000) + Panthers ($2,800) = $10,800
Facing the No. 25 ranked DVOA run defense and the No. 28 ranked run defense allowing 132.7 yards per game
Game Total - 51
Implied Totals - Panthers at 27.5 points and Lions at 23.5 points
Game Line - Carolina Panthers -4
The Carolina Panthers are on the road on Sunday to take on the Detroit Lions in Week 10 NFC matchup. The Panthers are a four-point road-favorite, and they are forecast to score four touchdowns in this game.
McCaffrey is a weapon as a runner and as a receiver, and he is dangerous with the ball in his hands. McCaffrey has a fantastic matchup against a defense yielding 4.9 yards per carry, and only five teams in the NFL allow a higher average. The Lions allow seven attempts per game to the running back position, and the passing production is where McCaffrey can separate himself from the pack.
McCaffrey comes into this game off of a 138-yard and three touchdown performance last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. He is in line for another very productive game against a defense struggling at all levels.
Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has been sacked 18 times in the Lions past two games, and their offensive line takes a hit as veteran right guard T.J. Lang went to injured reserve early this week.
Stafford and the Lions passing game has struggled to get anything going in their past two games, and the offensive line has not played well to keep Stafford clean in the pocket. If the Panthers can bring pressure and keep Stafford out of sorts, their defense may be able to capitalize and produce at a high level.
McCaffrey and the Panthers defense are both strong options for GPP play in Week 11.