Week 12 is a short slate with three Thanksgiving games out of play, plus the Chiefs and Rams on bye. Two games are notably with 50+ point Vegas totals:
- Tampa Bay (-3) vs. San Francisco
- Indianapolis (-10) vs. Miami
Where are the DFS plays within these games? With a short leash on Jameis Winston, do you dare play him in Week 12?
James Brimacombe: I feel like you have to be all in on Andrew Luck right now with the way he has been playing of late. With the Colts as a 10-point favorite at home and new life at 5-5, Luck hasn’t had a game with less than 3 touchdown passes in his last six games. He has 21 touchdown passes over that six-game span and pairing him with T.Y. Hilton once again this week could be a strong move for GPPs. In the other game, I don’t mind Jameis Winston but I would probably keep my exposure to him at par with where the field will have him but having some pairs of him with Mike Evans makes some sense. On the flip side, I like George Kittle as a safe Tight End play this week, and Matt Breida is an under the radar pick as a cheap RB2 option as well.
Phil Alexander: Yes, I want to play Jameis Winston in tournaments this week, and every other week he's starting for Tampa Bay. He may not help the Buccaneers win actual football games, but in two out of three starts this season, Winston helped our DFS teams plenty by cruising to salary multiples of 6x and 4x. If head coach Dirk Koetter hadn't pulled the plug early in Week 8, it's likely Winston would have taken advantage of garbage time to reach tournament value for a third straight game.
This week, Tampa Bay is home for San Francisco, in a game with a 55 point over/under -- easily the highest on the main slate. While there is a significant risk a game between two awful teams will fail to produce all those points, Winston's fantasy track record dating back to his return from injury last season, combined with the 49ers soft pass defense makes him a strong play. Don't be fooled by San Francisco's relative success against opposing quarterbacks recently. Their last three games have come against Josh Rosen, Derek Carr, and Eli Manning.
James has the right of it on Matt Breida. He finally looked healthy in Week 11 after dealing with numerous injuries all season and throttled the Giants for 132 total yards and two touchdowns. Running backs against Tampa Bay have been an auto-start since linebacker Kwon Alexander was lost to injured reserve, and a sprained MCL for linebacker Lavonte David has made matters worse. Even if David is back this week, Breida -- fully refreshed coming off a bye -- profiles as a big-play machine.
For Indianapolis, you want to target running backs and tight ends. Miami's inexperienced linebackers struggle badly in coverage. Don't be surprised if Marlon Mack gets back in our good graces with a long score, and even Nyhiem Hines should be considered as a GPP dart. You should already know the deal by now with the Colts tight ends -- Doyle for cash games, Ebron for GPPs.
Justin Howe: Winston really shouldn’t be on the field. The Buccaneers are going nowhere, and his contract is guaranteed for injury. Since he is out there, though, I’m always ready to play him at a discount. Buccaneers games deliver DFS value so frequently because they have multiple paths to big stat lines. They could play well and generate numbers in the process, or they could fall behind and throw 15 passes in the fourth quarter. Given all of the stacking options in Tampa Bay, this is always a starting point for my GPP builds.
Will Grant: I have Winston pretty high on my quarterback list this week. The 49ers have an average pass defense, but the Bucs have almost zero running game. That means that Winston is going to have plenty of opportunities to post some big numbers. Tampa is starting to spread the ball around more and with weapons like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and DeSean Jackson, I like Winston's chances to finish near the top of the quarterback list this week. His salary makes him attractive in both cash and GPP games as well.
BJ VanderWoude: I don't have a problem playing Winston in this game, if for no other reason than the Bucs cannot conceivably sub him out of this game. Regardless of the short leash that has been on the Bucs quarterbacks recently, they need to see what they have in Winston for the rest of this season so that they can make an informed decision this off-season before he is due a massive roster bonus.
The Bucs wide receiver trio of Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin are all in play, and if you want to take a deep shot on Adam Humphries, it makes sense from a PP$ standpoint. The best PP$ play on the Bucs this week has got to be Cameron Brate though, as he now has the tight end job to himself after OJ Howard was put on IR.
On the other side of the ball, both George Kittle and Marquise Goodwin are excellent plays this week against a Bucs secondary that has been torn to shreds by every single offensive opponent this season. A stack of Nick Mullens/Kittle and Goodwin is one that I like a lot this week, as their collective pricing is more than affordable across the industry. The 49ers offense is heavily concentrated towards Kittle, Goodwin and Matt Breida, so when you factor in the high over/under and a porous Bucs defense, there is more than enough points to go around for GPP and cash lineups.
I have very little faith in the Miami offense. Even when it appears that Kenyan Drake should be seeing every available touch, the Miami coaching staff finds new ways each week to make him fall short of his true value. The Colts have been excellent shootout partners, but there is just no way of knowing who is going to see the touches/targets in the Miami offense from week to week. On the flip side, with seven straight games of three or more passing touchdowns, Andrew Luck has to be in play every week. The Luck/Ty Hilton stack finally came through last week in a big way, and I will be looking to put it in play again versus a Miami secondary allowing over 250 passing yards per game. The one must-play in this game is Marlon Mack though, as Miami's run defense is about as bad as it gets, allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Mack's price has fallen into the high #3RB tier, and considering his upside and ability to break the big play, combined with an advantageous game script, Mack is a guy I will have heavy exposure to this week.
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