DFS Roundtable: Finding Underdog Value - Footballguys

The Footballguys staff looks for DFS value from the Week 1 underdog matchups

What significant underdog in Week 1 do you see as a sneaky place for DFS value?

Phil Alexander: They may not be significant underdogs, but the Bengals getting points in Indianapolis is confusing. Andrew Luck will be starting his first game since 2016 and the Colts defense might be the most talent-deficient in the league. Cincinnati offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has reemphasized the vertical passing game and the preseason results were encouraging. Andy Dalton and John Ross are low-priced across the industry, and it shouldn't shock anyone to see A.J. Green and Joe Mixon finish among the league leaders at their respective positions in Week 1. Luck's only familiar weapons -- T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle -- should hog targets for Indianapolis and fit nicely in a GPP game stack.

Alessandro Miglio: Chicago's offense is one of the riskiest bets in Week 1 given how bad the Bears were last season, but Mitch Trubisky and Co. could be putting up some nice fantasy points this weekend, even in a big loss. Heck, especiallyin a big loss. If the Packers beat the spread and the game hits the over, we are looking at a game that could be 34-24 by the time the fourth quarter ends. That benefits a lot of Chicago players not named Jordan Howard.

Will Grant: Don't look now - but Jordan Wilkins could sneak into the starting lineup for the Colts this week. Whoever runs the ball is going to see a lot of action because I don't see the Colts testing Andrew Luck to throw for 400 yards, so they're going to run the ball and probably have a lot of short passes and conservative offense. Early news has Wilkins being the starter. If that stays true, I think he's a great value pick.

Jason Wood: The Saints are one of my top defenses for the year, and a sleeper so I'm not buying what the Buccaneers are selling. The same holds for Cleveland. I know everyone is on this narrative of Cleveland vaulting back into respectability, but I just don't see it. Not against arguably the best team in the AFC and a hated division rival.

I do think the Texans are a great play, and that includes Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and, most of all, Lamar Miller. Remember how bad the Patriots defense was in the early weeks of last season? I see the same happening this year. The roster turned over a ton, there are few proven disruptors, and Matt Patricia is gone. The Patriots will figure things out as the season moves along, but the early weeks could be a boondoggle.

Chad Parsons: Among the big underdogs in Week 1, Lamar Miller is my favorite play. It is all about playing is safe with roles and expected snap counts and touches in early in the season. Miller has minimal competition for snaps and touches in Houston and is affordable as a lower-cost RB2 in lineups.


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