DFS Roundtable: Packers-Bills Week 4 Plays

The DFS team discusses the Bills defense and Packers offense after Buffalo's stunning Week 3 win

The Packers are heavy favorites against the Bills after Buffalo pulled a stunning upset over the Vikings in Week 3. For the Packers, do you see them putting the Bills back on their track from the first two weeks or are the Bills not a pushover for DFS matchup purposes anymore?

Is the Packers backfield one to avoid until further notice with Aaron Jones back?

Phil Alexander: Josh Allen has proven his overt athleticism gives Buffalo a much stronger chance of hanging in games than Nathan Peterman ever did. But as good as Allen was in last week's upset over the Vikings, it's hard to envision him causing the Packers much trouble. After throwing two interceptions in his Week 2 debut, Allen didn't turn the ball over at Minnesota but nearly lost fumbles on three separate occasions. If some of those bounces don't go his way this week, it's easy to envision Aaron Rodgers making Allen pay dearly for his mistakes.

Given Rodgers' QB1 price tag (DraftKings), back-to-back games with less than 20 fantasy points, and serious knee injury, he makes for an interesting contrarian option with the Packers favored by double-digits and implied to score over 27 points. Green Bay's backfield has combined to score the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the league through three games, so if Vegas has the Packers' total correct, Rodgers is in play for a huge game. Consider stacking Rodgers with Randall Cobb. The Bills have allowed at least six catches or a touchdown to an opposing slot receiver in every game this season.

Regarding avoiding the Packers backfield, yes. They were a backfield to avoid before Jones returned. Now that Jones, Ty Montgomery, and Jamaal Williams are each seeing at least 25% of the team's snaps, it's impossible to trust a Green Bay running back. Of the three, the matchup favors Montgomery this week, but he remains a thin play.

Justin Howe: I still don't like the Buffalo run defense at all. It's a defense built with an eye on the pass rush, specifically on the edges, that essentially punts the running game. They've invested more in the middle this offseason, but it's too early to expect much of a boost. This was one of the league's worst units last season, and we saw two weeks ago just how badly out of position the linebackers and safeties often find themselves. Melvin Gordon III's too-easy 20-yard touchdown run was a perfect snapshot of this soft, less-than-dynamic run defense.

That said, I am starting to shy away from wideouts facing Tre'Davious White. Last season, I felt White spent most of the year neck-and-neck with Marshon Lattimore for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Lattimore was more consistent and deservedly won the trophy, but White has been significantly better here in 2018. He's not drawing much attention from opposing quarterbacks, and as a result, boundary receivers aren't producing anything against Buffalo. The cohort of John Brown, Mike Williams, and Stefon Diggs has been hot to open 2018, but combined to produce just 88 yards on 16 targets in this matchup.

Regarding the Packers backfield as one to avoid, no. If I pour over a number of configurations into a GPP this week, I'll probably have Jones in 8-10% of my lineups. Mike McCarthy isn't stupid; he realizes that Jamaal Williams lacks explosiveness in a painful way, and that Jones is his only ticket to a dynamic running game. He'll need a few factors to click - coaching preference, game flow, etc. Jones remains far behind Williams and Ty Montgomery in terms of passing-game fundamentals. But when the Packers hum along, he's always a threat to maximize his opportunity and turn in a 20-carry, 100-yard day. As a heavy home favorite, he makes sense as a cheap contrarian flier.

Dan Hindery: I see the Packers winning easily on Sunday. Buffalo caught Minnesota sleeping after an emotional rivalry game against Green Bay and with a trip to play the Los Angeles Rams looming on Thursday. With the 17-point spread, it is not surprising the Vikings were looking ahead.

After seeing what happened to Minnesota, Buffalo won’t catch Green Bay sleeping. I expect a relatively low-scoring game. Buffalo’s offensive firepower is nearly non-existent and their defense is looking like it is back to being as solid as it was last season. Green Bay’s running backs should put up good combined stats, but with the committee, it is impossible to trust any of the individual backs. Maybe Aaron Jones eventually emerges from the pack, but for now, this backfield is a complete avoid for me in DFS.

Will Grant: Back to back road games is hard on any team – just ask New England. The Bills were lights out against the Vikings last week, and maybe they caught Minnesota napping. Green Bay is already in a ‘must win’ scenario, being 1 Kyle Fuller drop in week 1 from being winless and in last place. They need this game in a big way. It’s natural for the Bills to let down a bit after a big upset like that as well. Aaron Rodgers, DaVante Adams and even Geronimo Allison are good plays this week. Allison is of particular interest as his salary is considerably lower than Adams, but he actually has more receiving yards. I think Green Bay unloads in the second half of this game and all three of these guys should do pretty well.

I wasn’t really confident with the Green Bay backfield before this and I’m even less confident now. Jamaal Williams leads the team with 135 rushing yards, but he’s averaging just 3.8 YPC. Ty Montgomery is averaging 4.9 YPC, but he’s only had 11 attempts through the first three weeks. I don’t see any of them as viable options right now.

James Brimacombe: With the Packers coming off a road loss to Washington I can see them easily wanting to make a statement here at home against the Bills. The Bills stunning the Vikings does have to cross your mind but the NFL is a week to week league and so much can change in the space of a week. The Packers will not be taking the Bills for granted and Aaron Rodgers and the offense will be spreading the ball around along with getting the running game up and going. For cash games, you definitely want to avoid the Packers backfield but for GPP’s it is not a bad spot to find a low-owned running back that is in the perfect spot with the Packers at home and as a huge Vegas favorite.

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