DFS Roundtable: High-Scoring Offensive Stacks

The DFS team discusses the high Vegas totals for Week 3

High Vegas game totals litter the Week 3 NFL schedule.

What offense(s) are you most buying into after two weeks of data points to build DFS stacks?

Phil Alexander: It doesn't feel right to give an answer other than the Chiefs after what we've seen through two games. Eventually, defenses will catch up to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes (at least to some degree), but why would it be this week against the 49ers? San Francisco has allowed at least 24 points in both of their games this season and rank as a bottom-four unit in total air yards allowed (per Airyards.com). Continue riding the wave until there's a good reason not to. Don't be afraid to pair Mahomes with more than one of his pass-catchers in the same lineup.

James Brimacombe: It is hard right now to not continue to target the Chiefs after a two-game sample size of just scoring touchdowns. Likely the chalk will consist of several Chiefs this week so playing in GPPs you are going to want to be careful in going overboard on the Mahomes/Hill/Kelce stacks and maybe look to a Mahomes/Hunt or Mahomes/Watkins stack. On the flip side, you have to look at defenses to target against and anyone facing the Chiefs defense has been one to look as they have been playing catch up.

Another defense that seems to be giving up points is the New Orleans Saints and the Falcons at home looked good against the Panthers. I would be willing to take some shots on Matt Ryan and Austin Hooper or a Matt Ryan and Tevin Coleman stack to get off of the obvious one of Julio Jones. Also hard to ignore Drew Brees and Michael Thomas combo right now and you would almost be foolish to not have some exposure to that duo.

Alessandro Miglio: Patrick Mahomes and Co. are going to be chalk this week and for good reason. Not only is Mahomes having a historic start to his career as a starter, but the 49ers defense has been about as bad as the Steelers defense the Chiefs just shredded on the road. Of course, being chalk, you won't be able to get much differentiation out of guys like Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill.

A far less chalky proposition would be to buy into the Lions passing offense. Detroit has been a mess so far, and Bill Belichick might choose to tear his former protégé Matt Patricia a new one after the Week 2 loss. But the line for this game moved above 50 points, and the Lions are probably going to be playing catch-up most of the game, much like they did in San Francisco. Stafford threw for 347 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2. This game script could again mean a big day for the veteran quarterback and his receivers.

Will Grant: There are two games that jump off the page as potential stacking opportunities for DFS this week. Kansas City is the obvious one, with the juicy 56-point expected score. The problem that I see is ownership percentage and that a lot of guys will be all over this game in both cash and GPP games. If you’re going to load up on this game, I think your approach should be quarterback-wide receiver/tight end and opposing wide receiver/tight end combos. Lineups like Patrick Mahomes – Tyreek HillGeorge Kittle or Patrick Mahomes – Travis KelcePierre Garcon. Some combination that gives you a piece of both sides, recognizing that if KC scores a ton, the 49ers are going to have to throw a lot as well. I think this is really the only way you can create lineup differentiation from an ‘all KC’ Stack that some folks will go with.

The other game is Minnesota at home against Buffalo. Yes, the game is only projected to score 40 points compared to 56 of the Chiefs, but if you factor in the point spread, Minnesota is still projected to score 28+ points in this game. Add in the fact that the Vikings have not scored a rushing touchdown yet and that Dalvin Cook is still struggling, and this looks like a great matchup to stack Kirk Cousins with Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen or Kyle Rudolph. Thielen has more targets and yards but Diggs has more scores. A super stack of Cousins – Thielen and Diggs might be worth a shot as well.

Dan Hindery: The obvious answer—49ers at Chiefs— is the correct one. These are two extremely talented offenses with fantastic play callers facing off against shaky defensive units on the other side. I disagree somewhat with others who view this game as a GPP fade because the deep groups of weapons on both sides offers so many permutations that building relatively unique game stacks is still possible. Patrick Mahomes, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kareem Hunt, Alfred Morris, Matt Breida, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, George Kittle, and Travis Kelce are all viable GPP options. With 11 guys to choose from, there are so many ways to build a lineup around three or four players from this game, this game doesn’t have to be faded.

In the past, I’ve found success stacking running backs from opposing teams when one or both is a receiving threat. There is often a positive correlation due to game script. When one team scores early and is looking to run the ball to protect the lead while the other is throwing a lot trying to come from behind, the trailing team targets their pass-catching back heavily and both backs can have big games. The Atlanta-New Orleans matchup is a perfect example of a game where it is easy to imagine a game script where both Tevin Coleman and Alvin Kamara go off for big fantasy games. Both Coleman and Kamara can split out wide and pose major mismatches as pass catchers.

Justin Howe: Yes, the Chiefs remain the stack of the week in straightforward, cash-game play. There's so much dynamism in that offense and a quarterback who seems allergic to dumping off, insisting upon maximizing every bit of it. Of course, as James points out, they're a strong fade in tournament play. Any quarterback opening the year with 10 touchdowns in the first 2 games is due for regression, even if it's Aaron Rodgers. Mahomes looks like a cannon-armed gift to the NFL, but inaccurate, inefficient days are inevitably coming. If one pops up this week, you'll want to be on another train.

(Obviously, everything I just said applies to the Buccaneers as well. Play them sensibly in cash, but avoid them like the plague in GPPs.)

The train I'll be taking in nighttime slates is the Pittsburgh offense. Yes, he's on the road, but Ben Roethlisberger should throw circles around the Buccaneers' beleaguered secondary. It's been inflated by garbage time and prevent defense, but Drew Brees and Nick Foles have combined to produce 773 yards and 4 touchdowns over the young season. Roethlisberger and his receivers are a great contrarian play to Fitzpatrick and his wild exposure.

James Conner looks like one of the week's premier GPP plays, as well. His price hasn't dipped, but his DFS exposure will after a ho-hum Week 2. The Tampa Bay defensive front is running on fumes, with three of its four defensive tackles either out or unlikely to suit up. He'll be heavily involved on all three downs (90.4% of snaps thus far), and any decent game flow will get him closer to Week 1's rushing production.

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