DFS Roundtable: Pivotal Running Backs

The DFS team discusses the key running backs for Week 10

Which of these running back storylines for Week 10 will influence your lineup building?

James Brimacombe: Mike Davis and Aaron Jones are the two names out of this bunch that I feel good about in a GPP build. Davis is coming off a game where he saw 22 touches for 107 total yards and has also played the Rams back in Week 5 where he rushed 12 times for 68 yards and a touchdown. I think he can put up a solid game with the opportunity and I don’t think it will really matter the game script.

As far as Aaron Jones goes, the Packers have a great home matchup against the Dolphins who have struggled against defending the run and with no Montgomery to steal work from Jones and Williams I feel like Jones has a shot to take a big stride this week in a positive game script with the Packers as a -9.5 point favorite at home.

Phil Alexander:

  • As of this writing, it's still early in the week to know how things will shake out for Seattle's running backs. But after entering Week 9 as a game-time decision, then aggravating his hip injury in-game, it would be somewhat surprising if Chris Carson wasn't rested this week. Mike Davis has filled in admirably for Seattle whenever called upon over the last two years and would become the top running back value play on the slate if Carson is inactive.
  • Mark Ingram II hasn't been productive since Week 5, but he has faced a pair of difficult matchups in the Ravens and Vikings and got banged up against the Rams last week in a game environment better suited to Alvin Kamara's skill-set. Ingram's snap share has remained consistent despite his struggles, and multiple touchdowns are in his range of possible outcomes every week as a member of the Saints offense. He's now priced as a back-up on DraftKings ($4,500) in a matchup with the Bengals, who have allowed the second-most normalized fantasy points to running backs over the last five weeks. Fade the recency bias. Ingram is an excellent tournament option in Week 10.
  • James has the right idea on Aaron Jones. His steadily rising snap share, excellent game script, and quality of opponent (or lack thereof) are all working in his favor this week. Jones remains affordable since he didn't exactly go off in his first game without Ty Montgomery on the roster. Miami's linebackers have been annihilated by speedy backs like Jones this season, and there are numerous ways this game can unfold that would result in a run-heavy game plan for Green Bay. Don't be surprised if this is the last week we can roster Jones below $6K for the rest of the season (DraftKings).

Justin Howe: Jalen Richard will be on my radar all season. He’s worlds ahead of Doug Martin as the receiving back, as Martin is one of the league’s worst pass-catchers. And there’s a perfect storm in play that boosts Richard’s outlook. The Raiders are atrocious and will trail for most of their field time. And Derek Carr is back to looking skittish and impulsive behind a shaky front line, checking down constantly to avoid testing anyone downfield. Richard and tight end Jared Cook could wind up dominating Oakland targets going forward.

I’ll probably never roster Leonard Fournette again – especially since he came back so expensively. Fournette’s ankle/foot troubles are nagging and long-spanning, and he’s always a risk to aggravate it in-game. It’s already happened several times, after all – he’s no stranger to late scratches and first-quarter tweaks.

Adrian Peterson could be in trouble. His line is banged up on an absurd level: he’s lost both starting guards to injured reserve and his left tackle for the next month or so, and now his right tackle looks questionable at best for Week 10. Peterson has been a great story, but this might be the end of the line for my practice of chasing him at affordable DFS costs. His lack of receiving production is semi-glaring as it is; if we have to scale back his ground efficiency projections as well, it’s goodnight. Peterson looks great for his age but needs some kind of crease to showcase that legendary burst.

BJ VanderWoude: I am trying to avoid the situation in Jacksonville, as they now have three viable starting running backs. Even if Fournette is given the starting job back, I don't expect the Jaguars to give him his regular workload. That is a big problem because Fournette gets stronger as the game goes on and while he is a tough guy to tackle regardless but come the fourth quarter, it becomes even harder. There just isn't enough information yet on how the Jaguars plan to deploy Fournette, TJ Yeldon and Carlos Hyde, so I am fading all three of them this week.

If Chris Carson is out, Mike Davis becomes as close to a must play as any other running back this week. His price is low across the industry and he has responded very well when given opportunities. In his only start, he rushed 21 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns, while also catching four passes for 23 yards. In the four games where he's been given 10+ carries, Davis has averaged 4.5 yards per carry, scored three touchdowns and has 14 catches for 77 yards. Davis will be one of the players I have the most exposure to this week if Carson is ruled out for week 10.

Elijah McGuire out-snapping Isiah Crowell last week against a Dolphins team that has not been able to stop the run, well, it was a very Jets-like decision. McGuire has a lot of fans inside the Jets building and with Powell out for the year, he could very well step into the #1 running back role. With that said, it is ridiculous that Crowell wasn't fed the rock last week. Therefore, it is really hard to predict what the Jets coaches are going to do with these two running backs. With his low salary in mind, McGuire is an interesting play, especially with the Jets coaches having him on the field on third downs. I like him for big GPP's where you need a value player to differentiate yourself from the field. I will dedicate around 5% of my exposure to McGuire this week.

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