DFS Roundtable: Lone Wolf Offenses

The DFS team discusses NFL offenses with few DFS options

These offenses offer little beyond their top options. Are they worthy of DFS lineups in Week 14 or are others in play?

Nick Chubb, Browns (vs. Carolina)
Julio Jones, Falcons (at Green Bay)
LeSean McCoy (vs. New York Jets)
Kenyan Drake (vs. New England)
Keenan Allen (vs. Cincinnati)
Kenny Golladay (at Arizona)
Larry Fitzgerald (vs. Detroit)

Phil Alexander:

  • Nick Chubb, Browns (vs. Carolina) - We saw a floor-game from Chubb last week (16.2 PPR points) with the Browns in a negative game script vs. Houston. The Texans defense is one of the best in the league -- something that cannot be said about the Panthers. Interestingly, Chubb has run more pass routes than Duke Johnson Jr over the last two games and been fairly productive as a receiver, tacking on three catches and 40+ yards in each game. He has as much potential to finish as a top-3 running back this week as anyone not named McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliott, or Kamara.
  • Julio Jones, Falcons (at Green Bay) - Green Bay's secondary has struggled to stop opposing WR1s all season and now has to face the best of the best with the team in disarray following the firing of head coach Mike McCarthy. The fact that Jones remains priced under $8K on DraftKings (WR7) is an absolute joke.
  • Keenan Allen (vs. Cincinnati) - The Bengals might have the worst defense in the league at this point, which is saying a lot. Allen reminded us he has a 40-point ceiling last week, and while this may be complete narrative, he has shown a tendency to string together big performances in the past. His price also wasn't adjusted to reflect his monster Week 13 stat line due to Chargers at Steelers being played after Week 14 pricing was released.

James Brimacombe: Julio Jones is my guy this week as a big bounce back candidate and hopefully he comes in at lower ownership than he normally would because of last week’s disaster performance. Minus out last week’s 2 catch for 18-yard performance and the six previous games you had Jones with over 100 yards each time with three touchdowns mixed in and 50 receptions in that span. I see this Falcons/Packers game as one of the big blowup games of the week, so I will be wanting to roster pieces from both sides.

Keenan Allen is the other guy I want to go all in on this week. Allen has quietly put together four straight games with a touchdown in each. Last week’s game against the Steelers was incredible as he had 19 targets come his way for an 83/996/5 line and will likely be heavily owned this week because of it.

Dan Hindery: Keenan Allen is a solid play but Cincinnati has been solid against opposing wide receivers and top slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard is back after missing multiple games. The Bengals biggest weakness in the pass game has been against opposing running backs. They’ve allowed 66-637-6 to running backs in the passing game and have given up the most fantasy points overall to running backs. If Melvin Gordon III is out again, this is a dream matchup for Austin Ekeler and he looks to be the top play for the Chargers.

The Cleveland wide receivers are in play against Carolina, especially Antonio Callaway. The Panthers have been getting destroyed by opposing pass catchers in recent weeks. Over the last three weeks, Carolina has allowed 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown to four different receivers (Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, David Moore, and Kenny Golladay). Callaway has 7 catches for 146 yards and 1 touchdown over the last two weeks. He also had a long touchdown called back due to a penalty. At $3,900 on DraftKings, Callaway is a high-upside tournament option.

BJ VanderWoude: Phil's take on this is exactly right. Julio should be in play every week, but especially against a Green Bay secondary that has not been able to stop opposing #1 receivers. The Packers are an organizational mess right now, and I expect the Falcons to come out with a fast-paced attack and take it to the Green Bay defense from the jump. The Falcons run game has been abysmal as of late, and Jones represents their best chance at moving the ball down the field. The fact that he is underpriced (and quite significantly) compared to the top receivers just makes him that much more of an attractive option this week.

With Melvin Gordon III taking the reigns in the Chargers offense this year, Keenan Allen’s production has slipped. This is due to no fault of his own, he just hasn’t seen the volume that he has in years past. Last week proved that when he sees a heavy share of targets, he puts up big numbers and has as high a ceiling as any receiver in the league. With Gordon most likely out again this week, look for another big performance from Allen as he faces off against a Bengals defense that has given up the third most points to opposing receivers this season.

Justin Howe: Phil is right-on that Chubb is the engine of the Browns offense, and that last week likely represented his floor. But I'm also on board with Callaway as an intriguing pivot. The usage is good: he's posted 146 yards and 1 touchdown over the past 2 weeks, and he had a 77-yard catch called back last week. The volume is iffy but full of potential: Baker Mayfield has thrown 40+ passes in half his starts. And the talent is decent: Callaway is often a mess of rookie mental mistakes, but he simply blazes and has averaged 19.7 yards a catch over the last 4 weeks. He should cost more than $3,900 on DraftKings, but here we are.

Fitzgerald isn't exciting at all, and even his always-solid floor has taken a beating with such bad quarterbacking. His volume probably won't increase too much with Kirk out - Josh Rosen hasn't thrown more than 26 passes since Week 10, and that's how the Cardinals like it. But if he hits, say, 35, Fitzgerald and David Johnson will likely divvy up around half of those targets. And with 10-12 looks, Fitzgerald would almost certainly post his third productive game of the season. The Lions are routinely shredded in the slot, where Curtis Samuel (5-55-1), Robert Woods (5-67-1), and even Danny Amendola (6-84-1) have all posted strong lines lately.

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