DFS Roundtable: Favorites and Underdogs

The DFS team discusses the notable favorites and underdogs for Week 11

The main slate is void of many of the staple strong offenses in the NFL in Week 11, including:

  • Patriots
  • Packers
  • Vikings
  • Chiefs
  • Rams

Among the rest of the slate, pick one favorite and one underdog of the following for DFS value this week:

Favorites

  • Falcons (vs. Cowboys)
  • Saints (vs. Eagles)
  • Chargers (vs. Broncos)
  • Steelers (at Jaguars)
  • Panthers (at Lions)

Underdogs

  • Eagles (at Saints)
  • Jaguars (vs. Steelers)
  • Cowboys (at Falcons)
  • Broncos (at Chargers)
  • Lions (vs. Panthers)

James Brimacombe: I will make this answer easy as I will pick the Saints as my favorite and the Eagles as my underdog in the same game. With the Saints as a -9.0 favorite and a 54.5 over/under I think we see a lot of points from both teams. The Eagles defense has been banged up this year and is not nearly playing with the same urgency as last season so players like Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas should be able to fill up the stat sheet.

On the flip side of the game, I really like Carson Wentz to continue to play hard no matter the Eagles record and how big of a road underdog they are. Wentz has 14 touchdown passes in the last six games and is averaging over 38 pass attempts a game this season. The Eagles have little run game this season which will allow Wentz to heavily target the likes of Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery. All the players in this game are big name guys with big price tags but you could also add in Mark Ingram II and Tre’Quan Smith on the Saints side for value and Nelson Agholor on the Eagles side.

Justin Howe: I love the Saints offense as they take on the run-funneling Eagles. Philadelphia has allowed big recent running days to Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott but for the most part field a stout run defense that forces the pass. Their dominant tackle play clogs inside lanes and usually makes life difficult for featured runners. Instead, Drew Brees should enjoy one of his high-volume usages, and he’ll operate against an underwhelming secondary that just lost top cornerback Ronald Darby for the year. Vegas likes the Saints to win this game comfortably, but I don’t see them necessarily icing it on the ground. When Brees needs quick yardage, he’ll often turn to Alvin Kamara on passes in the flats as an extension of the run game to avoid that imposing front.

Conversely, I like the Eagles’ outlook as well. They don’t like to run, and they’ll likely trail for most of this game, so we probably have game flow all figured out. That should set Carson Wentz up on the favorable end of his 38-attempt average, and against this Saints secondary, he has a solid ceiling for efficiency. Andy Dalton flailed last week without A.J. Green, but the Saints’ previous 2 opponents averaged 375 yards. I don’t foresee the Eagles staying within nine points, but I see plenty of situational appeal for Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery.

Phil Alexander: James and Justin laid out the reasons why you should target the Eagles at Saints game, so I'll stump for Panthers at Lions as my favorite/underdog combo. Carolina heads to Detroit on 10 days rest after getting spanked in Pittsburgh last Thursday night. It's a great spot for them to get right against a flailing Lions team that has lost their last three games by double-digits.

Cam Newton is the QB3 on DraftKings, but remains affordable enough due to their clustered quarterback pricing. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in every game since Week 1, and as usual, his rushing ability gives him GPP-winning upside in any given game.

Maybe the trade deadline addition of defensive tackle Damon Harrison has substantially improved the Lions rush defense, or maybe last week's strong showing against the Bears had more to do with Chicago running backs averaging 3.6 yards per attempt this season. Either way, matchups hardly matter for Christian McCaffrey at this point, after he scored 30+ PPR points in back-to-back games and the Panthers cut his back-up, C.J. Anderson, on Monday.

The other Carolina player to target in this matchup is Greg Olsen. He's lumbering through a foot injury, but still capable of a 4x return on his salary given the matchup against Detroit. The Lions lead the league with a 67% pass success rate allowed to enemy tight ends and their 9.2 yards per attempt allowed to the position ranks third-highest.

If you want to run it back with a Lions player in GPPs, the answer is Kenny Golladay. Marvin Jones Jr is dealing with a bone bruise and the Lions are facing a short turnaround to their annual Thanksgiving game. With Jones likely to scratch and Golden Tate now a member of the Eagles, Golladay would be in for all the targets he can handle against a Carolina secondary that has been heavily targeted downfield (8.7-yard aDOT).

Dan Hindery: The Saints are the team I’m most interested in rostering this week, especially Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. The team total of 32 is easily the highest on the slate and both defenses funnel the opposition towards the pass. The targets are also relatively concentrated too. Over the last two weeks, Michael Thomas is the only wide receiver to see more than three targets in a game. The lack of depth at wide receiver since Ted Ginn Jr and Cameron Meredith went on IR means we can bank on Thomas seeing a big percentage of the targets. Plus, the lack of talent at wide receiver makes Alvin Kamara an even more integral part of the passing game.

From the same game, I’m also interested in Philadelphia as the road underdog. The Saints are going to score points and Philly is going to have to be aggressive throwing the ball to try to keep up. Against a New Orleans defense that has been amongst the league’s worst against the pass, Carson Wentz and his suddenly deep crew of passing game weapons could put up big numbers. I like stacking this game with Wentz, Zach Ertz, Kamara, and Thomas.

BJ VanderWoude: At this point in the season, it is hard to pick against the Falcons, Saints and Steelers for passing production. Among those, I still prefer the Saints due to the dependence on Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas. Their production is very much foolproof, but there is also the likes of Mark Ingram II and Ben Watson to consider. Ingram is sorely under-priced across the industry considering his ceiling and should be a nice option to consider among the lower priced running back crowd.

I will continue to go with the Bucs, as I have been the last couple of week since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over. Last week was an anomaly, as Fitzpatrick became one of the few quarterbacks in history to throw for 400+ yards without a touchdown. Even when he is bad, he makes up for it with big plays. The Bucs are stacked with talent at the wide receiver and tight end positions, and even a good Giants secondary (or what has played like a solid group since Eli Apple's departure) won't be able to contain Fitzpatrick's return to the city of his best years as a pro.


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