DFS Roundtable: Favorite Plays

The DFS team discusses their recommended plays among the heavy favorites in Week 10

The main slate in Week 10 features five games with early Vegas total of 50+ points, three of which boast favorites of at least a touchdown.

From the three games, pick a favorite and an underdog for quality DFS value:

  • Chiefs (-17) vs. Cardinals
  • Chargers (-10) at Raiders
  • Rams (-10) vs. Seahawks

James Brimacombe: I am going with the Chargers as the team I like as the favorite here out of the bunch. I feel a lot of folks will flock to the Chiefs and the Rams as they have dominated the scoreboard over the first 9 weeks of the season. The Chargers have been consistently good and quiet in the meantime. Philip Rivers has 19 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions to start the year and Melvin Gordon III has 10 total touchdowns while missing a game. It has been Keenan Allen who is finding it hard to find the end zone as he has a 47/630/1 stat line in seven games. The reason I like this game is that it is a divisional game and these tend to stay close no matter how good or how bad one team is.

On the other side of these games, I would like to target Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin for a GPP stack this week in hopes that the pair would have to click in order to keep this game competitive. Baldwin has yet to score this season but has looked better over the past three games seeing 15 total targets for 12 receptions, and 194 yards.

Phil Alexander: In case it wasn't evident after the Raiders went into San Francisco and made undrafted free agent Nick Mullens look like Brett Favre, Oakland is in full-on tank mode. Melvin Gordon III's price has reached a season-high (DraftKings), but it shouldn't prevent you from rostering him in cash games and GPPs against the Raiders plodding linebackers. As James alluded to, Keenan Allen is catching too many passes to have so few touchdowns. Oakland's season-long struggle covering enemy slot receivers should help Allen's touchdown total regress towards its mean. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Tyrell Williams has four touchdowns on 11 targets over his last three games. While both his yardage and touchdown numbers are unsustainable over the long term given such low volume, it's easy to envision him keeping the splash plays going against the Raiders secondary. Philip Rivers looks like a solid value and Mike Williams is in play for GPPs due to his touchdown upside.

As strange as it feels to type, my favorite underdog of these three games is the Cardinals. There's no doubt Kansas City has earned the right to be favored by 16.5 points, but I wouldn't be surprised if they let up some fantasy production in the process of winning big. Arizona had the bye week to further implement new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich's scheme, and while their talent remains underwhelming, they do have some interesting offensive pieces. We know David Johnson is capable of exploiting a poor run defense and the Chiefs still rank dead-last in rush defense DVOA. If his season-high 41 receiving yards from Week 8 were any indication, Johnson will also remain involved in the passing game during garbage time under Leftwich. Larry Fitzgerald is finally healthy and coming off his best game of the season. He is more than capable of getting over on under-sized slot corner Kendall Fuller. Josh Rosen also has eyes for Christian Kirk, who can easily get behind Kansas City's secondary for a long gain or two.

Justin Howe: It’s boring but I like the Chiefs. You know the Kansas City principals will put up points, as this isn’t a team that throttles down much in blowouts. I worry a little about Sammy Watkins, as he’ll see plenty of Patrick Peterson on the outside. But Tyreek Hill will be moved around the formation plenty, and Travis Kelce is a machine down the seams. Kareem Hunt is a do-it-all back who can produce in any game situation.

And since I’m not one bit afraid of targeting the Rams in DFS, I’ll have some interest in the Seahawks, too. Doug Baldwin is due for some positive regression, and this matchup just gets juicier and juicier. Marcus Peters is flailing badly right now, and while Nickell Robey-Coleman is solid as a slot cover man, but Baldwin has a great track record and has been his typically efficient self. He’s caught 75% of his targets on the year, and over his last three games, he’s churned out an elite 12.9 yards per target.

BJ VanderWoude: I like the Chargers as a favorite, they are finding ways to win this year that they haven't in years past. That lines up very well or Philip Rivers as this is a Raiders team that has made quarterbacks look good all season. In their first matchup, Philip Rivers threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns, which is where I think his baseline is for this week. The Raiders have allowed six of their eight opposing quarterbacks to score 20+ fantasy points, and the least amount of points a quarterback has scored was 17 points from Case Keenum. Oakland is tied for 5th in passing touchdowns allowed, with opposing quarterbacks throwing for two or more touchdowns in seven of their eight games.

Despite having one of his worst games of the season against the Raiders in week five, I think it makes sense to stack Gordon alongside Philip Rivers. If you want to dig a little deeper and take a shot in a GPP, I would suggest stacking Tyrell Williams alongside Rivers, and perhaps Gordon too. Williams doesn't see a lot of targets, but the ones he does see, are usually down the field and Williams is catching a long touchdown pass. Well, the Raiders are the perfect team for him to beat deep down the field. Oakland has let up a lot of big plays to opposing wide receivers and tight ends. Against the Raiders, Albert Wilson had one catch for 76 yards and a touchdown, Kenny Stills had three catches for 61 yards and a touchdown, while Jakeem Grant caught two passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns. George Kittle caught four passes for 108 yards and a touchdown, David Moore caught two passes for 47 yards and a touchdown, even Darren Fells caught one pass for 49 yards and a touchdown.

If you are looking for underdog value, of those three teams I would have to go with the Cardinals. The Chiefs should have this game well in hand by halftime, which means the Cardinals are going to have to abandon the running game early in this game, and targets for David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Christian Kirk. The Chiefs have allowed five 100+ yard games to receivers and 10 touchdowns to opposing pass catchers. I don't expect this game to be close, but there seems to be a lot of garbage time fantasy value out there. Johnson, Fitzgerald, and Kirk are all in play, as they have very fair salaries across the industry.

Chad Parsons: Patrick Mahomes II and Tyreek Hill form one of my favorite stacks of the week. It has been three weeks since Hill exploded and gets the beatable Arizona secondary and a big favorite. On the flip side, David Johnson's salary has sagged to a season-low salary on most sites this week and his receiving usage uptick of late is encouraging with the likely catch-up mode game script for much of this week's contest.