DFS Roundtable: Big Week 16 Favorites

The DFS team discusses the big Week 16 favorites

The Patriots (vs. Buffalo) and Colts (vs. Giants) are more than touchdown favorites in Week 16. For core options to DFS lineup building who stands out from these two offenses? Who is the best stack with Tom Brady for the Patriots? Is Eric Ebron a value after his invisible Week 15 against Dallas outside of having a huge reception called back by a penalty? Which run game option do you trust?

Phil Alexander:

For core options to DFS lineup building who stands out from these two offenses?

Andrew Luck for cash games. He's the QB7 on DraftKings, making him a nice value relative to the rest of the position's top-tier plays. Luck's two recent poor games came against tough competition in Jacksonville and Dallas. With the exception of those two games, he has easily exceeded a 3x multiple of his current salary in every game since Week 4. A matchup against the Giants on his home field should result in 20+ fantasy points for Luck rather comfortably.

Who is the best stack with Tom Brady for the Patriots?

Julian Edelman is the chalk answer. There's no question White is one of the better young cornerbacks in the league, but Robby Anderson (7-4-76-1) and Kenny Golladay (8-7-146-0) have gotten the better of him in the last two games.

Is Eric Ebron a value after his invisible Week 15 against Dallas outside of having a huge reception called back by a penalty?

Yes. Chalk last week up to tight end volatility, a bad drop, and Dallas' strong pass defense. Ebron presents a mismatch for the Giants, who have faltered every time they've faced an upper-echelon tight end this season. Five-to-seven catches and two touchdowns are within his range of possible outcomes.

Which run game option do you trust?

No one on the Patriots. Rex Burkhead's return has put a cramp in James White's once-elite fantasy value and Sony Michel is losing goal-line work to James Devlin of all people. While he hasn't been the most consistent option this season, rostering Marlon Mack is not just an exercise in chasing last week's points. The Giants have been gashed on the ground since trading defensive tackle Damon Harrison and Mack has proven himself as an explosive runner when healthy.

James Brimacombe:

Julian Edelman looks to be the guy that is on the same page with Tom Brady right now. Edelman and Brady have connected for 16 catches, 176 yards, and a touchdown on 23 targets over the past two games. Also, back in Week 8 against the Bills Edelman caught 9-of-10 targets for 104 yards. He is the safest option to stack with Brady this week as he gets the receptions and has some touchdown upside in the mix as well.

As far as the Giants/Colts game goes I like the Colts side in that one and think that Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, and Marlon Mack are all great options. I will probably take a break from Eric Ebron this week and will be looking for the big plays from Hilton and the touchdown upside of Mack on the ground.

Dan Hindery: It feels like a week James White could bounce back and return to having a major role in the Patriots offense. Both Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady have explicitly said they need to get the ball in White’s hands more often in the last few days. White was also a key part of the offense when the Patriots beat the Bills earlier this season. In that game, he was targeted a whopping 13 times. In all, he posted 94 total yards, 10 receptions, and 1 touchdown the last time these teams played.

Marlon Mack looks like the player to target again for the Colts. The coaching staff has talked a lot lately about the importance of establishing the run. The 27-139-2 line Mack put up against an extremely stout Dallas run defense was impressive. The game plan should be similar this week. Tennessee provided a blueprint on how to beat the Giants with Derrick Henry rushing 33 times for 170 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. I expect Indianapolis to try a similar approach.

Justin Howe: Brady probably stacks best with Rob Gronkowski, who won’t see much exposure - nor any Tre’Davious White - this week. Brady is at heart a risk-averse passer, and I don’t foresee him testing the phenomenal White very often. Gronkowski isn’t himself, but he’s still a dominant one-on-one and comes a bit too cheaply for GPP builds.

Not enough fantasy players pay attention to the penalized and nullified plays. Ebron drew only three targets on the stat sheet, but had two others wiped out by penalty - and both were impactful plays. One resulted in a 38-yard catch, and the other was an end zone throw that Andrew Luck misfired on. Flip those two plays to Ebron’s favor - which is fair, as football is a game of inches - and he’s looking at a line of 3 for 59 and a touchdown. And no one would be complaining, even with the middling volume. No, I’m not concerned about Ebron. He’s a tight end in an Andrew Luck offense, which all but guarantees volume and red zone targets. He could go 8-90-2 this week and none of us would bat an eye.

Will Grant: I think Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton is a key stack needed in play this week. The Giants are vulnerable to the big play and Luck to Hilton has been a key big play factor for the Colts this season. I like this stack this week.

For Brady, his clear ‘favorite’ target (aside from the open one) is Julian Edelman. Edelman missed several games to start the season but still leads all non-running backs in targets and receptions. While Rob Gronkowski is Brady’s favorite red zone target, Edelman is the guy I’d stack him with.

A couple weeks ago, Zach Ertz hung 90 yards and a touchdown on the Lions. Two weeks before that, George Kittle had nine receptions for 83 yards. The week before that, Jordan Reed had seven receptions as well. Last week against the Cowboys was an outlier, and I think Ebron has a bounce-back week against Detroit. If you want to double-stack the Colts – Luck-Hilton-Ebron is the combo you want.

Derrick Henry ran all over the Giants last week. They are not happy to see Marlon Mack this week. Mack posted nearly 150 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns against the Cowboys last week and should have another big game this week against the soft Giant defense too.

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